THE PRICE OF PANIC
Publishing on 13 October 2020. Buy it!
THE BIG GIST
From the publisher
For the first time in history, the world shut itself down—by choice—all for fear of a virus, COVID-19, that wasn’t well understood. The government, with the support of most Americans, ordered the closure of tens of thousands of small businesses—many never to return. Almost every school and college in the country sent its students home to finish the school year in front of a computer. Churches cancelled worship services. “Social distancing” went from a non-word to a moral obligation overnight. Moral preening on social media achieved ever new heights.
The world will reopen and life will go on, but what kind of world will it be when it does? It can’t be what it was, because of what’s just happened.
Professors Jay Richards, William Briggs, and Douglas Axe take a deep dive into the crucial questions on the minds of millions of Americans during one of the most jarring and unprecedented global events in a generation.
- What will be the total cost in dollars, lives, and livelihoods of this response from governments, on advice from Science?
- What role have national and global health organizations such as WHO played in this? To whom are they accountable?
- What evidence do they rely on in sounding the alarm?
- How did science bureaucrats, relying on murky data and speculative computer models, gain the power to shut down the global economy?
- How did politicians, who know nothing of the science, decide whom to trust?
- We need to know what and how it happened, to keep it from ever happening again.
This is the permanent page for Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics. E-copies can be had from Springer in EPUB and PDF formats. Amazon has a Kindle version (but I’ve heard bad things about its formatting).
Important student note: apparently many universities have a deal with Springer such that you can read for free the book on your university’s library site.
Uncertainty’s a hit! 821 paper copies sold and 7,915 downloads: “This means your book was one of the top 25% most downloaded eBooks in the relevant SpringerLink eBook Collection in 2016.” Update: 2017 was just as strong.
If you cannot afford the book, at least read this paper, and pass it on to your colleagues.
Note: the more attractive cover image was a gift from Wrath of Gnon.
THE BIG GIST
- All probability is conditional;
- Probability is not decision.
From those simple and proved truths flow these consequences:
- Probability cannot discern cause;
- Therefore no hypothesis test, by wee p-value or Bayes factor, should ever be used;
- Parameters are of no interest to man or beast;
- Only verified probability models should be used and in a predictive sense;
- To understand cause and provide explanation we must look to nature, essence, and power.
Read the book and be the first on your block to come to a wondrous, penetrating understanding of probability & statistics. Out with the new and in with the old! The older, better, and true understanding of cause and probability, that is. Eschew mathematics for the sake of mathematics, flee ad hocery in all its forms and wiles, and put probability to its intended real use!
This includes you, too, computer scientists, with your big deep data neural net machine “learning” fuzzy algorithms, which are all probability models with (admittedly) better names.
|The New Criterion||Mathematical Association of America|
|Don Aitkin||Thorsten Jorgen Ottosen|
|The Philosopher||Vox Popoli|
|Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons||Amerika|
|Real World Economics Review|