Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

We've done regression a hundred times, but it isn't sticking. That means my explanations are failing. Let me try again. Everybody knows normal distributions, i.e. bell-shaped curves: in shorthand N(m,s),…

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Far be it for Yours Truly to disagree with a peer-reviewed study. It must…

Who remembers those crank scientists who wanted to genetically engineer human beings so that they would be sprier and narrower and thus have smaller "carbon footprints"? We don't need 'em!…

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…