Search Results for “regression” – Page 11

Example Of Bad Trend Analysis

These examples are from the BAMS article "Continental US Hurricane Landfall Frequency And Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks" by PhiliP J. Klotzbach, Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke JR., and…

Statistics

How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Verification 1

We are finally at the most crucial part of the modeling process: proving if the damned thing works. Not "works" in the sense that we get good unobservable parameter estimates,…

Statistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…

Philosophy Statistics

Researcher In AI Responds To Criticisms

I received this thoughtful, and may I say highly accurate, email from reader EN, which I include in full below. I removed the age and name to protect EN's identity.…

Class Statistics

How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part VIII — Starting Stan

Review! You must at least review the first lessons---all class material is on one page for ease. I'll have more words about the mysticism of simulation, but I've said it…

Class Statistics

How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part I New (Free) Software Introduction

Introduction Here's what we always want, but never get, using the old ways of doing statistics: The probability that some proposition Y is true given certain assumptions. Like this: …

Statistics

New Paper! Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof

Here is a link to the PDF. Briggs, William M., 2019. Everything Wrong with P-Values Under One Roof. In Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics, V Kreinovich, NN Thach, ND…

Statistics

Making P-values Weer To Achieve Significance Won’t Help

Mini-paper out in JAMA by Matt Vassar and pals: "Evaluation of Lowering the P Value Threshold for Statistical Significance From .05 to .005 in Previously Published Randomized Clinical Trials in…

Pozymandias on A Twist In A Solution To Newcomb’s ParadoxDecember 22, 2024
I think there's a mistake about 1/3 of the way down in the text "Assuming the entity is an oracle,…
Johnno on As Woke Falls, What Rises?December 21, 2024
Whatever falls, new Expurts always rise. They even optimized Time for us and we've been confused and suffering ever since...…
Johnno on House Cramnibus Funds New Follow-The-Science PanicsDecember 20, 2024
We should offer to pay for our leader's mandatory lobotomies as part of the spending passage. MANDATORY. Cite Biden's state…
Ryan on Class 32: The Evils, Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology I (All Should Read)December 20, 2024
I think you're being a bit harsh. The authors concluded as follows in their abstract: "[W]e found an excess ALS…
Probability Puzzle Paradox: Which Boxes To Take? – William M. Briggs on A Twist In A Solution To Newcomb’s ParadoxDecember 20, 2024
[…] did Newcomb’s Paradox (so called) years ago, and a twist in premises after that. But I thought it would…