Search Results for “probability” – Page 8

Predictive Probability Resources, Why Frequentism Fails & Uncertainty

From the mailbag, reader I.W. writes: Dear Professor, I represent social science (but of a priori bent), and I recently got really hooked on frequentialism. After all, prof. Mises employed…

Statistics

How To Resolve All Probability Paradoxes: Apples In Sack Example

Via Alexander Bogomolny?: At 1 minute to midnight 10 apples fall into a sack. The same happens at half a minute to midnight, then at a quarter minute to midnight,…

Statistics

Possibility Versus Probability & Decision

Philip Pilkington, author of the buyable The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory, asks a follow-up question to the material on the precautionary principle. If probability…

Class Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That

Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…

Class Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part II: Skin in the Game

Read Part I It is in one sense fortunate that the mathematical, or rather quantitative, roots of probability began with gambling. Routine gambles are easy to understand, and the calculations…

Class Philosophy Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part I: I Say Probability Does Not Exist

Ye Olde Statistician points us to an essay (a book chapter?) by our old pal Nassim Nicholas Taleb called "The Logic of Risk Taking". Let's examine it. You, dear reader,…

Philosophy Statistics

Formal Logic And Probability

One of the arguments is that probability does not extend predicate logic, but does extend propositional logic. The concern is that because predicate logic is formal and propositional logic is…

Statistics

Probability Three Points On A Line & Measurement Paradoxes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVH4MS6v23U Reader Neil Taylor points us to the video above, which is a jumping point for the larger question (be sure to watch the video first): In [the video] Professor…

C-Marie on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026
"Memories flag, you see,....." , BUT the Holy Spirit does not flag at all , and He It was Who…
Brian (bulaoren) on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026
Should these (percieved) inconsistencies negate the whole body of teaching? I once knew a couple who were profoundly opposed to…
bmiller on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026
What seems odd to me is that if he was once so fiercely committed to believing but concluded he was…
Cary D Cotterman on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026
I'm still hung up on the staff issue. It doesn't make much sense for someone to tell you not to…
UK Economist Says the Quiet Part Out Loud: High Energy Prices are ‘Good for the Climate’ – Climate- Science.press on The Consensus That Wasn’t: Less Than 1%, Not 97%April 15, 2026
[…] economist would recognise as market-based. Yet we are told, with straight faces, that the “97 per cent consensus” demands…