Search Results for “probability” – Page 8

Predictive Probability Resources, Why Frequentism Fails & Uncertainty

From the mailbag, reader I.W. writes: Dear Professor, I represent social science (but of a priori bent), and I recently got really hooked on frequentialism. After all, prof. Mises employed…

Statistics

How To Resolve All Probability Paradoxes: Apples In Sack Example

Via Alexander Bogomolny?: At 1 minute to midnight 10 apples fall into a sack. The same happens at half a minute to midnight, then at a quarter minute to midnight,…

Statistics

Possibility Versus Probability & Decision

Philip Pilkington, author of the buyable The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory, asks a follow-up question to the material on the precautionary principle. If probability…

Class Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That

Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…

Class Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part II: Skin in the Game

Read Part I It is in one sense fortunate that the mathematical, or rather quantitative, roots of probability began with gambling. Routine gambles are easy to understand, and the calculations…

Class Philosophy Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part I: I Say Probability Does Not Exist

Ye Olde Statistician points us to an essay (a book chapter?) by our old pal Nassim Nicholas Taleb called "The Logic of Risk Taking". Let's examine it. You, dear reader,…

Philosophy Statistics

Formal Logic And Probability

One of the arguments is that probability does not extend predicate logic, but does extend propositional logic. The concern is that because predicate logic is formal and propositional logic is…

Statistics

Probability Three Points On A Line & Measurement Paradoxes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVH4MS6v23U Reader Neil Taylor points us to the video above, which is a jumping point for the larger question (be sure to watch the video first): In [the video] Professor…

robber run game on Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than CranksSeptember 12, 2026
This feels like a rant but I'm actually pretty convinced that most "Bayesian" stuff is just a convoluted way to…
VVEDNESDAY EDITION – BIG PVLPIT on Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids Because Of “Climate Change”September 12, 2026
[…] Can We Discuss the ‘Nod of Peace’? – Zelda Caldwell at National Catholic Register10. Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids…
THVRSDAY EDITION – BIG PVLPIT on Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids Because Of “Climate Change”September 12, 2026
[…] Evil of Anger: Gloria Steinem’s Abortion – Robert B. Greving, J.D., at Crisis Magazine10. Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids Because Of…
BDavi52 on Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids Because Of “Climate Change”September 11, 2026
No, no, no.... you're missing the point. Actually, you're missing the singular postulate which underlies every Woke piece of idiocy…
Robin on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 11, 2026
In my career I've rarely, if ever, used p-value analysis. Going through my university statistics textbook of some years ago,…