Posted inCulture
The Awesome Occult Powers Of White Supremacists
It's difficult to remember how big parapsychology was in the 1970s. It was at that time taken seriously, or at least not dismissed, by a large number of what we…
Posted inStatistics
The Burden Of Proof On Climate Scientists—And Those Wishing For Its “Solutions”
UNCERTAINTY REQUIREMENTS If you say a calamity will befall me, and ask me to pay to protect against it, the burden is on you to (a) prove the calamity is…
Posted inStatistics
Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy
A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…
Posted inStatistics
Climate Attribution Studies Can’t Be Trusted — New Paper
THE SKY HAS FALLEN Benny Peiser at the Global Warming Policy Foundation asked me to investigate so-called climate attribution studies. I did. They don't work. Since that's too brief a…
Posted inStatistics
Breaking: Wind From Tropical Cyclones Cure Hemorrhoids
Lost count of the number of "studies" that feel---not think---that they must invoke terror to justify their undertaking. Take this peer-reviewed gem from Nature Communications by Robbie M. Parks and…
Posted inPodcast
Patrick Coffin Show: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs
Patrick was kind enough to have me on his podcast. Here's his show notes (his title too): #223: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs “There…
Posted inStatistics
Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More
Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…
Posted inPhilosophy
Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails
Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…