Search Results for “probability” – Page 50

Statistics (Philosophy) Quiz: See If You Really Know What You’re Doing Using Tests

This is from Gerd Gigerenzer's "Mindless statistics" in The Journal of Socio-Economics, 33, (2004) 587–606. Have a go before looking at the answers (I'm giving my own, not quoting Gigerenzer).…

Statistics

Absolute Vs. Relative Risk Reduction; Trump Likes Vaccines; The Fabulous Fauci; Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam Getting Theirs; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXIII

WE CONTINUE The consensus---and we never buck consensii; consensuses?---was to keep these updates going for the time being, but expanding their scope. I have therefore cut back on some of…

Statistics

Defending The Canceled Mask Paper; Gain-Of-Lethality Confirmed?; Time We Quit These Updates? — Coronavirus Update LXXII

NOTHING MORTAL GOES FOREVER Should we quit these updates? I know I've grown sick of them. Are you? Maybe replace them with articles when warranted, such as what our dear…

Statistics

Random Means Unknown Cause — And Nothing More

I've used this gimmick many times, so regular readers, please, shhh. I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 4. What is it? To you the number is random, because…

Culture

The Awesome Occult Powers Of White Supremacists

It's difficult to remember how big parapsychology was in the 1970s. It was at that time taken seriously, or at least not dismissed, by a large number of what we…

Statistics

The Burden Of Proof On Climate Scientists—And Those Wishing For Its “Solutions”

UNCERTAINTY REQUIREMENTS If you say a calamity will befall me, and ask me to pay to protect against it, the burden is on you to (a) prove the calamity is…

Statistics

Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…

Statistics

Climate Attribution Studies Can’t Be Trusted — New Paper

THE SKY HAS FALLEN Benny Peiser at the Global Warming Policy Foundation asked me to investigate so-called climate attribution studies. I did. They don't work. Since that's too brief a…

John Pate on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 13, 2026
Supposedly AI is making everyone dumber. We can achieve equality via AI, there's nothing it can't do.
John Pate on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 13, 2026
Qualia are the key to intelligence and not epiphenomena. Fancy auto-complete will never think.
Christopher C Reed on Another Academic Says Climate Skeptics Criminals Against Humanity And Other Name CallingFebruary 12, 2026
Congratulations on your promotion to Ringfueher, er...Ringleader! I suppose there may now be an opening for Henchman?
Brian. (bulaoren) on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 11, 2026
A lot of Americans have come to suspect that the "dumbing down" of the population is a real, and deliberate…
Heresolong on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 11, 2026
I can't but I don't understand most of the abbreviations. I look forward to your analysis.