Posted inStatistics
You Can’t Predict The Unpredictable
There is, or might even not be, some BAD THING ahead of us. I don't know what it is, and you don't know what it is, and nobody knows what…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…
Posted inStatistics
Bayes Theorem and Coronavirus: The Chance You Have It & The Chance You Die
I didn't have a chance to put this in yesterday's update, but I've been asked to do it. It's a classic in every 101 biostat textbook to do Bayes theorem…
Posted inStatistics
New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
Posted inFun
Blog Year In Review: Top 10 Reader & My Favorites
Tune in tomorrow to make your 2020 predictions! Results for 2019 coming Thursday. Reader Favorites Here were the Top 10 reader favorite posts of 2019, in which the numbers surprised…
Posted inStatistics
The Probability Of Your Existence
A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…
Posted inStatistics
Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus
Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability Of Abiogenesis? There Isn’t One
Remember before when we agreed nothing has a probability? Bully. So if no thing has a probability, neither does abiogenesis, since abiogenesis is a thing. Since abiogenesis is a thing…
