Posted inStatistics
Forget Priors!
From Bill Raynor: Hello Matt, You like to discuss P(Y|M) a lot, but haven't spent much time talking about the practical construction of that. A topic I'd like to see:…
Register Your Predictions for 2020!
As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Everybody…
Posted inStatistics
Defending The Canceled Mask Paper; Gain-Of-Lethality Confirmed?; Time We Quit These Updates? — Coronavirus Update LXXII
NOTHING MORTAL GOES FOREVER Should we quit these updates? I know I've grown sick of them. Are you? Maybe replace them with articles when warranted, such as what our dear…
Posted inPhilosophy
The Physicist Brian Greene Does Not Exist — And Neither Do You — If The Nonexistent Greene Is Right
The excerpt of a collection of sounds from a thing which is called Brian Greene, but which isn't, is here: https://twitter.com/newscientist/status/1247891248783831047 The full "interview", which isn't really an interview, because…
Posted inClass Statistics
Control Groups With No Cancers In Hormesis Data Sets
A well known paper by Duport et al. on radiation hormesis makes a statement about control groups which is not quite right. The paper is "Database of Radiogenic Cancer in…
Posted inClass Statistics
Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty
Let's drag the statistician's hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Next Time Somebody Asks You “What’s the Probability of X” Say This — Crucial Update!
Next time somebody asks you "What's the Probability of X", where X is any proposition, say this: there is no such probability. It doesn't exist. "Briggs, what's the probability of…
Posted inFun
How’d We Do On Our 2020 Predicitons?
Dismally. Lousy. That's how we did on our 2020 predictions. Nobody saw the global insanity of the lockdowns, the Cult of the Mask, the covidiots, the scale of the election…
