Different courts and legal systems use diverse phrases about evidentiary standards of proof1. Few to none are precise in the sense that they offer a fixed probability number for this…

This post is inspired by Roger Pielke, Jr., as well as Bernie, Matt, and other readers who asked me to have a look at some IPCC probability statements. Roger Pielke,…

What is the probability that Casey Anthony is guilty of murder? High, but according to twelve men and women honest and true, not high enough. High enough is supposed to…

To clarify: to prove false means to demonstrate a valid argument with a certain conclusion. If a theory/model says an event is merely unlikely---make it as unlikely as you like,…

I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…

These next posts are in the way of being notes to myself. Logic is the study of the relation between statements. For example, if "All green men are irascible, and…