Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 10

Predicting Doom—Guest Post by Thomas Galli

I am not a statistics wizard; an engineer, I value the predictive power of statistics. Indeed, if one can precisely control variables in the design of an experiment, statistics-based prediction…

Culture Statistics

Government Witch Hunt Of Scientists Begins: DOJ To Join In? Update! Inhofe Fights Back

Please help publicize this calumny. Agree with me about this. If---and I only say if---the global-warming-of-doom we have been promised is false, then there is nothing for government to do…

Philosophy Statistics

On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?

When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com's Senate prediction, it said "Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority." There were also words that the "probability that each party will win control…

Culture Statistics

Goon Squad Fails To Distract Public From Fact That Climate Models Stink: Update 3

If you're new to the site, don't forget to check out the Classic Posts page. Our continuing walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is postponed until next week. Feel free to…

Statistics

There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection

This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…

Statistics

Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell

I've never seen the show, but I've heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, "I want to believe." That sentiment characterizes…

Statistics

Don’t Say “Hiatus.”

Don't say "pause", either. Update: Nor (see this post) "natural variability". What a mistake it is to use these words! There is no possible meaning of them which is sensible…

Book review Statistics

The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed

People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…

hudbwu on On Various New Values Of P(Doom)February 5, 2025
You're right. Substituting "computer model" for "AI" really does defuse the emotion of the language. It almost converts an alarming…
Paul Murphy on On Various New Values Of P(Doom)February 5, 2025
The version of Captain Cyborg on the zdnet site has apparently been somewhat garbled (actually I'm surprised it's still there).…
C-Marie on On Various New Values Of P(Doom)February 5, 2025
Well, you never can tell. I am 81 plus and figure that leaving here will be all Joy as Heaven…
Paul Murphy on On Various New Values Of P(Doom)February 5, 2025
AI, as it is and within presently known technologies,has the potential to answer Fermi's paradox through an example of one…
Cary Cotterman on On Various New Values Of P(Doom)February 5, 2025
I've lost count of the times I've been told we're on the brink of doom during my fairly long life.…