There are two ways to forecast the election: polls and models. Polls are easy: go out and ask who will vote for whom, tally the results, and print 'em. As…
Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…
To summarize what we know, but only in brief and leaving out many smaller scandals: The White House lied about the cause of Benghazi. They knowingly, willingly, and falsely claimed…
As will come as absolutely no surprise to regular readers, but will be a traumatic revelation to the public at large, it has finally been acknowledged in the peer-reviewed literature…
"After soccer practice, I'm going to bring you to the polls." "Ah, mom! Do we have to go?" "Everybody has to vote, Johnny. If you don't, you're disenfranchised." "I want…
An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
How important was Barack Obama's victory? By what measure can he be said to have secured a "mandate"? How does his election compares to others? And how do voters in…