Posted inStatistics
How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics
See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Truth of Things: When Probability & Statistics Cannot Be Used
I am always struggling with (my limited ability of) finding ways to describe the philosophy behind logical probability, especially to people who have a difficult time unlearning classical frequentist theory.…
Posted inStatistics
My Answers to Willis Eschenbach’s 14 + 2 Questions
Repost Mr Eschenbach had not had the chance to respond to this article before the two weeks wherein comments are automatically closed have elapsed. This re-post will allow him, and…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Confidence Intervals, Logic, Induction
Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Replacements for Representation: Bayes From the Ground Up
A primary justification for Bayesian probability is De Finetti's representation theorem, which is stated like this. You are to observe a sequence of 0s and 1s, "failures" and "successes" if…
Posted inStatistics
Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know
This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven't…
Posted inStatistics
Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part II
Be sure to read yesterday's post first. One of the screwy consequences of classical statistics is that my odd sample (mixing babies and the patients from the brain cancer ward)…
Posted inBook review Statistics
The Great Global Warming Blunder by Roy W. Spencer
The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists by Roy W. Spencer This book was given to me for review by the publisher. Clouds…
