Posted inFun
The Mathematics Of Santa Claus’ Present Delivery System
It's the time of year when people begin asking the very pertinent question: How does Santa Claus do it? How does he get all those presents to all those kids…
Posted inCulture Philosophy
A Flood Of Evidence: From God To Noah To Hume To Nobody
Here are remarks on "Enlightenment & Sacrifice -- Remarks on Joseph de Maistre" by Thomas Bertonneau, which I urge you to read in full. Bertonneau is reading de Maistre's Elucidation…
Posted inClass Statistics
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part I New (Free) Software Introduction
Introduction Here's what we always want, but never get, using the old ways of doing statistics: The probability that some proposition Y is true given certain assumptions. Like this: …
Posted inClass Statistics
Choose Predictive Over Parametric Every Time
Gaze and wonder at picture which heads this article, which I lifted from John Haman's nifty R package ciTools. The numbers in the plot are made up whole cloth to…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability Of Abiogenesis? There Isn’t One
Remember before when we agreed nothing has a probability? Bully. So if no thing has a probability, neither does abiogenesis, since abiogenesis is a thing. Since abiogenesis is a thing…
Posted inClass Statistics
Using P-Values To Diagnose “Trends” Is Invalid
Look at the picture, which is real data, but disguised to obscure its source. It is a physical measurement taken monthly by a recognized authority. The measurements are thought to…
Posted inClass Statistics
Lovely Example of Statistics Gone Bad
The graph above (biggified version here) was touted by Simon Kuestenmacher (who posts many beautiful maps). He said "This plot shows the objects that were found to be 'the most…
Posted inClass Statistics
There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…
