Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Mexican Hat Fallacy
Reader Kip Hansen asks, "Can you please run a brief explanation of what the Mexican Hat fallacy is statistically?" I can. The Mexican Hat Fallacy, or Falacia Sombrero, is when…
Posted inStatistics
Historic Storm Nemo And The Feminization Of America. Crucial Photographic Updates
Post's original title: Feminization continues apace: Wall Street Journal edition The old joke has been modified: A sweater is a garment a citizen puts on when the government gets cold.…
Posted inFun
Global warming causes prostitution!
Update Moved up to allow comments. Originally posted November 2009. The Beaujolais nouveau (just got in my case for this year) shot out my nose when I saw this, the…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance
Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I
Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong
My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II
McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…
Posted inFun Statistics
Predictions 2013—Register Yours Today!
Time for our annual guessing game about what's to come for 2013. The predictions we made for 2012 will be posted and analyzed tomorrow. We have one week to enter…
