All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…

CDC Correctly Predicts Second Wave https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1252707856442327041 Also: CDC Director: Next Winter's COVID-19 Season Could Be Even Worse "There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next…

You will have already seen the headline: N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count. The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to…

Regular readers: no post on Saturday. Here's a nifty plot showing the percent of the world's population rubbed out by various epidemics. The percent population makes sense as a natural…

I didn't have a chance to put this in yesterday's update, but I've been asked to do it. It's a classic in every 101 biostat textbook to do Bayes theorem…