Posted inStatistics
Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive
Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn't Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God.…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves
All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus,…
Posted inStatistics
Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks
I stole today's title from David Papineau's essay "Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science", which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early…
Posted inClass Statistics
There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…
Posted inStatistics
Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?
Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email.…
Posted inPhilosophy
Against Moldbug’s Reservationist Epistemology: Reason Alone Is Not Reasonable
For most, Mencius Moldbug will need no introduction; for those who do not know him, this review of his work is succinct (which Moldbug never was) and fair. We'll not…
Posted inBook review Statistics
Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts
This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we're 1.5 years out, it's time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again…
Posted inStatistics
Nature: “‘One-size-fits-all’ threshold for P values under fire.” Good. Shoot Them All Down
Nature magazine reports "'One-size-fits-all' threshold for P values under fire: Scientists hit back at a proposal to make it tougher to call findings statistically significant." Researchers are at odds over…
