Posted inStatistics
The Mathematical Trick Guaranteed To Win You A Nobel Prize
My friends, the title is not hyperbole. The scheme I present below will work. But it will require some hard work to get there. Which is only proper, since we…
Posted inStatistics
The Disparagement Of Epidemiology
I was having an argument with a friend who was on his way to a conference to point out the shortcomings and over-confidence of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). With EBM,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails
Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…
Posted inPhilosophy
Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty
This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…
FREE CLASS
UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Links to YouTube, Rumble, Bitchute, and Twitter inside each class. Jayne's Book (first part). Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2:…
Posted inStatistics
The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed (Video)
Video Link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV-IRdTWG2c The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured,…
Posted inStatistics
Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. "P-values have some good uses." No, they don't. I used every as in every. "P-values…
