ALL CAUSE DEATHS This is usually in the numbers section, but I worry the point I'm making is getting lost. The week-of-the-year all-cause deaths. Green line is 2021, red is…

Kip Hansen last week gave us the following scenario (which I've pared to bare essentials here, but check the original if you fret): START Sam shows us three cards, two…

We have had a lot of seriousness over the last year. Covid Madness, possibly wonky elections, riots of the Left and riots of the Right, petty criminals become heroes and…

FABULOUS FAUCI FALTERS This is one on many threads concerning The Fauci Emails, which sounds like a tacky late-80s cold-war thriller. https://twitter.com/GraduatedBen/status/1399939387924811780 It's all there (complete link?): masks don't work,…

The media has been reporting that 37% "of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change". They gleaned this from the peer-reviewed paper, "The burden of heat-related mortality…

This is from Gerd Gigerenzer's "Mindless statistics" in The Journal of Socio-Economics, 33, (2004) 587–606. Have a go before looking at the answers (I'm giving my own, not quoting Gigerenzer).…

WE CONTINUE The consensus---and we never buck consensii; consensuses?---was to keep these updates going for the time being, but expanding their scope. I have therefore cut back on some of…