Posted inStatistics
Yes Like The Flu, Yes Like Car Crashes, Yes Like…
First Section updated For Sorry Ari Fans Many have asked me to comment on The New Atlantis article "Not Like the Flu, Not Like Car Crashes, Not Like..." by Ari…
Posted inStatistics
The Week In Doom: There Will Be Priestesses Edition
We are weeks behind in Doom. Doom other than the virus, that is. Here's a small attempt to catch up. Item Taylor Marshall reports "Yes, so Bishops are officially 'commissioning…
Posted inStatistics
The Tyranny Of Models
From reader Alistair Haimes comes this note about the Imperial College model, a note which will illustrate the tyranny of models. So, the errors in the Imperial College covid-19 model.…
Posted inStatistics
Everybody Now Dies Of Coronavirus
You will have already seen the headline: N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count. The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to…
Posted inStatistics
Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?
Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team colleagues scared the world silly in mid-March. They announced they ran a sophisticated epidemiological model which said Doom was on the…
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Coronavirus Update IX: End Game—Will Politicians Double Down On Fear Or End It?
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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Mini-Coronavirus Update: The Blamestorm Is On Its Way: Fauci Walkback
Apologies to regular readers, but I got real busy the past few days. So just a mini-update on our model, which will be useful for making a couple of small…
Posted inStatistics
More On Coronavirus Model Accuracy
This post is mainly for me to have a place to collect model accuracy stories. If you see ones I missed, please add them to the comments. https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1247666625958023168 Yesterday I…