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Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
Posted inStatistics

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Richard Dawkins reminds us of the important but neglected Big Muscles Fallacy: "I spent three days trying to persuade myself that Claudia is not conscious. I failed." Here's an equivalent…
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Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

A curious question made its way around the interwebs recently, and not for the first time. By itself, it does not appear to be that interesting. And it isn't, really.…
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UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Regular readers know I have been predicting our return to the 1970s (here and here). Not directly, you understand. There will be no bell-bottom pants or leisure suits, but only…
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Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

A lot of conversations about the differences between the races go like this one about sex. "Briggs, somebody told me you said men are taller than women." I said it.…
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What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
Posted inStatistics

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Might I beg you, if you find it useful, to show this article to those who are growing concerned or agitated about this story? Don't miss the ending. We hear…
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Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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  1. McChuck on The MRS Degree — Guest Post by Johnathan EdwardsSeptember 17, 2026

    "South Korea and Japan will no longer exist, perhaps in our lifetime, if they don’t start reproducing or bringing more…

  2. McChuck on PFAS and Preservatives: Entrenching Chemophobia through Everyday Stuff — Guest Post by Jaap HanekampSeptember 17, 2026

    How many of the breast milk lab techs (doesn't that sound filthy out of context?) were wearing latex gloves, known…

  3. JH on PFAS and Preservatives: Entrenching Chemophobia through Everyday Stuff — Guest Post by Jaap HanekampSeptember 16, 2026

    The alternative to preserved clay is, sooner rather than later, mouldy clay… Does this mean to create fear? There are…

  4. Cary Cotterman on PFAS and Preservatives: Entrenching Chemophobia through Everyday Stuff — Guest Post by Jaap HanekampSeptember 16, 2026

    Growing up in the late 1950s, I played with modeling clay almost every day. Who knows, back then it was…

  5. Phil R on PFAS and Preservatives: Entrenching Chemophobia through Everyday Stuff — Guest Post by Jaap HanekampSeptember 16, 2026

    I'm no expert but I think it's a little over the top comparing PFAS with Agent Orange. PFAS, for the…

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