Most likely due to my prolonged incarceration in my windowless mud hut with no company but my wife, bless her heart, my mind has begun to wander aimlessly and I…

CDC Correctly Predicts Second Wave https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1252707856442327041 Also: CDC Director: Next Winter's COVID-19 Season Could Be Even Worse "There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next…

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…

First Section updated For Sorry Ari Fans Many have asked me to comment on The New Atlantis article "Not Like the Flu, Not Like Car Crashes, Not Like..." by Ari…

We are weeks behind in Doom. Doom other than the virus, that is. Here's a small attempt to catch up. Item Taylor Marshall reports "Yes, so Bishops are officially 'commissioning…

From reader Alistair Haimes comes this note about the Imperial College model, a note which will illustrate the tyranny of models. So, the errors in the Imperial College covid-19 model.…

You will have already seen the headline: N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count. The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to…

Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team colleagues scared the world silly in mid-March. They announced they ran a sophisticated epidemiological model which said Doom was on the…