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Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability
Posted inStatistics

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

I hope you'll forgive this minor repetition, my friends. But since the world has not yet converted to the truth, shouted by de Finetti and handful of others, that probability…
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Dickman Cries “Rape!”: On The Bizarre New Rape-Pregnancy Paper
Posted inStatistics

Dickman Cries “Rape!”: On The Bizarre New Rape-Pregnancy Paper

You and I, dear reader, have looked at a lot of bad science over the years. Some science was bad because of the stank of woke, some because of fractured…
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The Role of Dusty-Ice-Sheet Albedo in Ice-Age Temperature Regulation — Guest Post by Jackie Edwards
Posted inStatistics

The Role of Dusty-Ice-Sheet Albedo in Ice-Age Temperature Regulation — Guest Post by Jackie Edwards

Yesterday we learned how poor climate models were because of their over-emphasis on man's influence. Today we have a guest post on one alternate cause. See what you think. The…
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Great News! The Climate Is Much Better Than Predicted. Now We Can Calm Down!
Posted inCulture Statistics

Great News! The Climate Is Much Better Than Predicted. Now We Can Calm Down!

I am, and you will be, too, absolutely delighted by a new paper by Roy Spencer: "Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models". This is a paper that will be celebrated…
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Combinatorial Explosion: Theory Is Worse Than You Thought
Posted inStatistics

Combinatorial Explosion: Theory Is Worse Than You Thought

A lot of kids have alphabet blocks. Twenty six wooden squares with the letters of the alphabet on them. One way to arrange them is just like in the song,…
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How Not To Think Like A Bayesian Rationalist
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

How Not To Think Like A Bayesian Rationalist

Lisping Rationalists When I read people like Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander it becomes clear to me how the French could have built a Temple of Reason during The Terror.…
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Questions On Statistical Practice Answered
Posted inStatistics

Questions On Statistical Practice Answered

Forgive me my friends, because of reasons I am terribly far behind on everything. Regular posting to resume soon. While back in a post, I was ranting about something like…
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The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises

What is the chance that "Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election"? Impossible to say, says Richard von Mises, because the event is singular and must be embedded in an…
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  1. Neil Jordan on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    How wee is the P for a coincidence? Separately, I will forward the short paper by William Feller, Scientific Research,…

  2. Briggs on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    Neil, Now, I promise this is true, but I also got an oil change this morning. P < ???

  3. Neil Jordan on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    Reply via iPhone while waiting for car oil change - Use for wee P? Yes there is one. Without wee…

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on Is the West Dying Out? The Demographic Crisis Explained: Jon Harris PodcastSeptember 9, 2026

    Nature abhors a vacuum

  5. The True Nolan on Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids Because Of “Climate Change”September 9, 2026

    In the distant past when dinosaurs roamed the earth and volcanoes belched hourly, we kids (being on summer vacation from…

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