UFOs: Solution Of Fermi Paradox Or One-World Government Wedge? Update
UFOs–in the public imagination, at least—came in four waves. Although there were other incidents well before this time, and in many places, the first big push in the States was…
Category: Statistics
The general theory, methods, and philosophy of the Science of Guessing What Is.
Special Mid-Week Doom — All Israel All The Time Edition
Item Nearly 400 Lawmakers Call on Trump to Address Threats in Syria Dear Mr. President: At a time of grave insecurity in the Middle East, we are deeply concerned about…
Example Of Bad Trend Analysis
These examples are from the BAMS article “Continental US Hurricane Landfall Frequency And Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks” by PhiliP J. Klotzbach, Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke JR., and…
VI Arnold On Models
Thanks to reader Victor Domin for pointing us to the paper “On teaching mathematics” by V.I. Arnold. Here’s an extended quote on models (do read the whole thing). At this…
Weight Of Evidence
Some have the idea that there should be a “weight of evidence” that is separate from probability, or in addition to it. Probability judgments are held more or less strongly,…
Notes On AI Accuracy (Facial Recognition)
Here’s a tweet (addressed to Judea Pearl), “If you could get rid of all the spurious non causal correlations in a machine-learning model, you would be left with only the…
Nature Advocates Using Children To Propagandize Parents
Nature magazine has published the article “Ignorant children should be used to propagandize their more knowledgeable parents.” I might have got the title wrong (click link for actual), but it’s…
Using P-Values To Diagnose “Trends” Is Invalid
Look at the picture, which is real data, but disguised to obscure its source. It is a physical measurement taken monthly by a recognized authority. The measurements are thought to…