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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Chinese War Poker: Bluffs Or Solid Threats?

The United States Navy is going to steam into the Yellow Sea and blow up some Korean warships. But friendly, like, and for fun. Points will be scored, and trophies…
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Posted inStatistics

The McShane and Wyner Gordie Howe Treatment Of Mann

Many---as in lots and lots---of folks wrote in and asked me to review the McShane and Wyner paper. Thanks! Gordie Howe---Mr Hockey to you---didn't need his stick, his hockey stick,…
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Posted inStatistics

Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability

This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…
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Posted inStatistics

The Gold Standard Of Experimentation Exposed As Pyrite

Everybody says the "gold standard" of experimentation, and especially clinical trials, is the randomized controlled trial. A typical view is that "A Randomized Controlled Trial is an experiment or study…
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Posted inStatistics

Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part II

Be sure to read yesterday's post first. One of the screwy consequences of classical statistics is that my odd sample (mixing babies and the patients from the brain cancer ward)…
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Posted inStatistics

Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part I

A standard epidemiological study goes like this: people who have been "exposed" to some thing, say, cell phone radiation, are examined to discover whether or not they have some malady.…
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Posted inStatistics

Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know

This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven't…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Everybody Has A Mental Disease: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 5

I am so far Up North that I heard a radio interview with Uncle Ted Nugnet on the best kinds of arrowheads to bring down feral pigs. Internet still only…
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  1. Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 18, 2025

    John, you seem to be operating under the misunderstanding that I asked you a question or that I care about…

  2. Johnno on Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In SportsNovember 17, 2025

    What is to be done? Accelerate it! Let the transgenders march through all the women's institutions to outcompete and purge…

  3. Johnno on In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s ArgumentNovember 17, 2025

    Well Cary, the problem is that before you see God we are all very certain you are going to spend…

  4. John Pate on Why Study Probability?November 17, 2025

    Willis, I'm trying to get you to think differently, not be antagonistic... although my sister says I'm "on the spectrum"…

  5. Uncle Mike on Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In SportsNovember 17, 2025

    How wonderful! As Dr. Briggs points out, clearly God, the Almighty Creator, created women different from men. However, stone cold,…

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