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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent. The Obama administration will create a new definition of poverty, one that changes as a function of how…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part I

Would you check the results of a model with another model? Before you answer, be sure you know what the question is. A model---whether it is physical, statistical, mathematical, or…
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Posted inStatistics

The Ease of Cheating With Statistics

Thanks to readers Ari Schwartz and Tom Pollard for suggesting this article. Take any two sets of numbers, where the only restriction is that a reasonable chunk inside each set…
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  1. Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.

  2. spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…

  3. JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025

    How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.

  4. Jonas P. Kay on Which God Are You Rejecting? David Bentley Hart’s The Experience of God, Part IJune 28, 2025

    I answer all by saying you cannot get something from nothing. There is beauty in its simplicity and it is…

  5. Johnno on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJune 27, 2025

    So what's the betting pool on the odds about when and in which country will be the first to perform…

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