Posted inStatistics
Your Belief In God Is Causing Your Denial Of AGW
Update Simon Donner has a blog post on this paper, which links back here. Since all comments are closed after 8 days (to battle spam), I'm moving this post to…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Legal Standards Of Proof And Probability
Different courts and legal systems use diverse phrases about evidentiary standards of proof1. Few to none are precise in the sense that they offer a fixed probability number for this…
Posted inStatistics
There Is No Such Thing As A Scientific Poll
There is no such thing as an unscientific one, either. A poll is this: a question or questions that are interpreted and answered by a group of individuals at a…
Posted inStatistics
Romney and Holdren Sittin’ In A Tree
Update: Somehow---I don't know how---the beginning of this piece has disappeared. I'll try to find it. Yeesh. Mitt Romeny, when Governor: Massachusetts continues to be committed to improving air quality…
Posted inCulture Statistics
British Judge Rules Against Bayes’s Theorem
A British judge has thrown a use of Bayes's rule out of his court. Not only that, his honor (Lordship?) ruled "against using similar statistical analysis in the courts in…
Posted inCulture Statistics
What Are The Chances Of War With China?
By the year 2012, or 2017, or 2022, what are the chances China's military engages US forces? Difficult question. But one which is better than asking the title question---because nobody…
Posted inBook review Culture Philosophy Statistics
Jeffrey Sachs Saves The World
The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Prosperity by Jeffrey Sachs Says Jeffrey Sachs, economics professor at Columbia, "Economic theory indeed supports the view that high tax rates…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Robert Heinlein And Evolving Probabilities
Writer Stephen Dawson, a long-time participant at this blog, wrote and asked the following: In his The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein had his intelligent computer calculate the…