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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Ten Politically Incorrect So-Called Truths About Human Nature: 6 – 10

See 1 - 5 here. 6. Beautiful people have more daughters And are thus more likely to divorce? And thus less likely to have fewer kids than the ugly people…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Top 10 Sure Things: Which NFL Games Were The Easiest To Pick?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to see how extreme bookies would go in making NFL picks, as judged by the probabilities of home-team wins as derived from…
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Posted inFun Statistics

How To Find True Love: The Marriage Problem

MEB + ARK, a.k.a. the Haystack Hunters, wrote the following: As fans of your work in real life probability and breaking the law of averages, we were hoping you could…
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Posted inStatistics

Hurricane Predictors Admit They Can’t Predict Hurricanes

My heart soared like a hawk1 after learning that Messieurs Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have admitted in print the hardest thing scientists can ever confess. That they were wrong.…
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Posted inStatistics

CARB Misinterprets Statistics, Calls For Elimination Of Dust

The California Air Resources Board, or CARB, has issued a press release that shows how easy it is to misunderstand statistics. That most do---fail to comprehend what statistical results are…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are Moneylines Useful In Predicting NFL Games?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to know how good moneylines were at predicting wins and loses. Since Las Vegas is still in business, it was a good…
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Posted inStatistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…
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Posted inStatistics

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

A group of scientists, funded generously by Big Green, which includes the Environmental Defense Fund, have released a report to coincide with the efforts of the Durban Global Warming Conference,…
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  1. Brett Watson on Class 95: Answering P-Value Good Uses ChallengesNovember 8, 2026

    "The conclusion given these premises (a phrase which I ought to write in ten foot high letters) is FALSE." No.…

  2. Francois Stallbom on Book Update: Launch DateNovember 7, 2026

    Cant wait! Just finished reading book one for the second time with great enjoyment.

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    Gareth, Switch to the Brave browser. You will thank me. No ads. Been using it for years.

  4. gareth on The Solution To EvolutionNovember 7, 2026

    Read the post. Interesting. Tried to watch the YT video linked. Riddled with adds. Not interested.

  5. hudbwu on Reading Bryan Johnson’s The Immortalism ManifestoNovember 5, 2026

    I dunno man, Jesus has been promising me eternal life. He even said I'll have it whether I want to…

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