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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Hurricane Predictors Admit They Can’t Predict Hurricanes

My heart soared like a hawk1 after learning that Messieurs Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have admitted in print the hardest thing scientists can ever confess. That they were wrong.…
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Posted inStatistics

CARB Misinterprets Statistics, Calls For Elimination Of Dust

The California Air Resources Board, or CARB, has issued a press release that shows how easy it is to misunderstand statistics. That most do---fail to comprehend what statistical results are…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are Moneylines Useful In Predicting NFL Games?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to know how good moneylines were at predicting wins and loses. Since Las Vegas is still in business, it was a good…
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Posted inStatistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…
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Posted inStatistics

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

A group of scientists, funded generously by Big Green, which includes the Environmental Defense Fund, have released a report to coincide with the efforts of the Durban Global Warming Conference,…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are Experts Better At Predicting Sports Than Ordinary Fans?

Today's post is over at the new and, yes, improved Edgehogs.com. Our launch was a couple of months ago. Since that time we've got a good chunk of games and…
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Posted inStatistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…
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  1. Ultrarightist on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 29, 2026

    Briggs, Thanks for the reply and the information. That is unfortunate. Hardbacks aren't made like they used to be, and…

  2. McChuck on Class 99: Entropy Part IOctober 29, 2026

    Entropy is described as a numerical rating of chaos. This is more confusing than not, and a poor descriptor, even…

  3. Briggs on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026

    Ultrarightist, Apparently not: They use case laminate (also called adhesive case binding or image-wrap) construction: The page block is glued…

  4. Cary Cotterman on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026

    Most book stores have a rack where employees put new books they've read, accompanied by short, usually hand-written reviews. It's…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026

    Hi Doc' May your new volume be a great success! Meanwhile, I'm hoping someone will write a book called; "The…

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