Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Randomness is a Matter of Information
How many pads of paper do I have on my desk right now? How many books are on my shelves this minute? You don't know the answer to any of…
Posted inStatistics
Calculating the Uncertainty of Economic and Other Forecasts
I was asked to talk about how to handle uncertainty in forecasts. Below is a rough sketch. Many of you run or work with models that produce forecasts, guesses of…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Peer Review and Proof
Suppose that I today, below, in this post, prove to you a certain mathematics theorem, say, "The Symmetry of Individual Constants." Is that theorem true? Before you answer, consider that…
Posted inStatistics
Obama’s New Nuke Policy: Preemptive Appeasement
A horrific scenario I hope never occurs: Washington D.C. was attacked today by Country X. Agents from X unleashed a massive chemical and biological barrage. Tens of thousands lie dead…
Posted inStatistics
Short New York Real Estate Because of Global Warming?
Stevey Cohen, head of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, wants you to short New York City real estate. He doesn't actually say that---Stevey isn't a broker and his statements…
Posted inFun Statistics
There Are No Left-Handed Catchers, Pitchers Are Tall: Baseball Biometrics
No Major League team employs, on its active 25-man roster, a left-handed throwing catcher. About 9 percent of people are lefties, and 63 men in baseball are listed as catchers,…
Posted inStatistics
Gladwell, Gottman, and Abraham on Predicting Divorce
Despite the best efforts of their wives, some married men remain recalcitrant and uncooperative. They refuse to or are incapable of taking their training seriously. Some of these men, who…
Posted inStatistics
“Humans are too stupid to prevent climate change” Lovelock
James Lovelock knows of what he speaks: personal experience allows him to say that a lot of humans aren't that bright. But Lovelock forgets that while there are many---half!---who are…