A standard epidemiological study goes like this: people who have been “exposed” to some thing, say, cell phone radiation, are examined to discover whether or not they have some malady. Some will, […]
Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know
This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven’t already, you […]
Everybody Has A Mental Disease: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 5
I am so far Up North that I heard a radio interview with Uncle Ted Nugnet on the best kinds of arrowheads to bring down feral pigs. Internet still only once daily […]
Correlation and Causality: Have A Drink, Get Rich
I am down to one brief internet connection daily, found, intermittently, at a coffee shop in town. I apologize for lack of or slowness in answering questions. According to the estimable Gallup […]
Three Cards: One Black, One Red, One Half & Half
Just a short one today, all. I’m heading further North. So far from civilization that when I was a boy, it was a cause to celebrate when a cit thirty miles distant […]
New Tax To Force Citizens To Pay For Water: Prediction
Away back in March, I predicted that if Obamacare passed, we citizens would eventually foot the bill for homeopathic treatments. This evidence for this forecast was inductive, in two parts. The first […]
A Time To Celebrate!
I am, once more, reliving my Air Force days. I am strapped into a seat designed for a midget, jetting across the Wild Blue towards the shores of Lake Michigan, where I […]
Replacements for Representation: Bayes From the Ground Up
A primary justification for Bayesian probability is De Finetti’s representation theorem, which is stated like this. You are to observe a sequence of 0s and 1s, “failures” and “successes” if you like. […]
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