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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Significance Magazine Announces Its Pro-Abortion Position

Significance Magazine waded into the culture wars by publishing "Deciding abortions by the toss of a coin?" by somebody called Michael A. Lewis. Here (in case the article is pulled)…
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Posted inStatistics

Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part III

Read Part II Question 3 Allard In question 3, the argument presented by Mr. Briggs is that marriage has very little to do with love. It is true that a…
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Posted inStatistics

Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part II

Read Part I. Question 2 Allard In question 2, Mr. Briggs asked the question "why two?" and later says that we can't use the historical fact that marriage is traditionally…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Objective Bayes Vs. Logical Probability (Vs. Frequentism)

Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Direct And Inverse Probability: The Bayesian Way

Class is almost over! Just three days (including today) left. I'm way behind reading comments. All logic, of which probability is an example, begins with a fixed list of premises…
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Posted inStatistics

Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn; Part Last

Read Part V From his page 55 (as before slightly edited for HTML/LaTex): Consider the case of a binary event where the two outcomes are success, S, or failure F…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…
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Posted inStatistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on Science Is Becoming FeelingsNovember 9, 2026

    @Susan Powers I would urge you not to go Q.E.D.-ing prematurely. As Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson might tell you; The…

  2. Susan Powers on Science Is Becoming FeelingsNovember 9, 2026

    Thought I would demonstrate my laser sharp perspective: the authors are all women.

  3. Briggs on Class 95: Answering P-Value Good Uses ChallengesNovember 8, 2026

    Brett, Yes, I accept this correction. You're quite right. I let my enthusiasm get the better of me. I'll change.

  4. Brett Watson on Class 95: Answering P-Value Good Uses ChallengesNovember 8, 2026

    "The conclusion given these premises (a phrase which I ought to write in ten foot high letters) is FALSE." No.…

  5. Francois Stallbom on Book Update: Launch DateNovember 7, 2026

    Cant wait! Just finished reading book one for the second time with great enjoyment.

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