Statistics – Page 235 – William M. Briggs

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Statistics

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…

Briggs on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 1, 2026
All, Thanks for the kind words and inspiration, everybody. It means a lot to me.
Uncle Mike on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 1, 2026
Megafires can, and sometimes do, start with a single spark. Don't underestimate the power of Truth. Therefore, (continue to) wield…
Tars Tarkas on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 1, 2026
Well I for one appreciate your work. Thank you for all the time you put into this.
Brian (bulaoren) on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 1, 2026
Why does anyone put a message in a bottle, and toss it into the sea?
Rara Avis on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 1, 2026
I asked myself the same question as your viewer, Bill, when trying to engage online readers about the logical (and…