Statistics – Page 226 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Cary D Cotterman on Contest Winner Announced!April 14, 2026
Here, on the street where I live, about every tenth house or so flies a flag announcing what the occupant…
Sid Porter on Contest Winner Announced!April 14, 2026
Always thought this one was first… supercalafragalisticexbislidoucious
Tars Tarkas on Contest Winner Announced!April 14, 2026
N is already taken and has been for centuries. But it would be hilarious if they added it to LGBT.
spudjr60 on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 14, 2026
Two of Mx. Watt's sources are DEMONIC and ultra-woke One is Howard Zinn, the other is "Counterfire"; according to it's…
Brian (bulaoren) on Contest Winner Announced!April 14, 2026
Now you've got me wondering about that, now defunct, live music club in New York; CBGB...And why exactly, was that…