How much does winning Iowa and New Hampshire help?
On the earlier poll thread, a reader asked “What’s your opinion about the statistical summary of past results of Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries?” pointing out data from Neatorama.com.…
Category: Statistics
The general theory, methods, and philosophy of the Science of Guessing What Is.
73.2% of Likely Voters Believe Poll Results
Pollster: Who will you vote for? Civilian: Oh, I don’t know; that guy, the tall one. Pollster: I’ll put you down for Obama. The elections in Iowa are over and…
Hurricanes have not increased: misuse of running means
Most statistics purporting to show that there has been an increase in hurricanes do not use the best statistical methods. I want to highlight one particular method that is often…
Were the cannonballs on or off the road first?
There’s something of a controversy whether photographer Roger Fenton placed cannon balls in a road and then took pictures of them. He also took a picture of the same road…
Two differences in perception between global cooling and global warming
As is well known by now, a passel of climatologists in the 1970s, including such personalities as Stephen “It’s OK to Exaggerate To Get People To Believe” Schneider, tried to…
Can increasing fuel economy standards result in more gas consumed?
Yes. Congress recently passed an increase in fuel efficiency standards for cars, from 25 MPG to 35 MPG, a 40% jump. So you would expect that, when this law goes…
Hurricanes have not increased in the North Atlantic
My paper on this subject will finally appear in the Journal of Climate soon. You can see it’s status (temporarily, anyway) at this link. You can download the paper here.…
How to Exaggerate Your Results: Case study #1
In the Tuesday, 6 November 2007 edition of the Wall Street Journal, Pfizer took out a full-page ad encouraging people to “Ask your doctor” about Lipitor, a drug which claims…