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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Decline Of Participation In Religious Rituals With Improved Sanitation

Answer me this. Earl at the end of the bar, on his sixth or seventh, tells listeners just what's wrong with America's science policy. His words receive knowing nods from…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability

Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Explanation Vs Prediction

Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…
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Posted inStatistics

Missing Global Warming Close To A Solution?

I can't tell you where I obtained a photocopy of the note below. I can tell you that I am in Washington DC (at the lovely and recommended Morrison Clark…
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Posted inStatistics

There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection

This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…
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Posted inStatistics

What I Have Learned From Global Warming: Contest Winner Essays 2. Plus Secret Bonus!

Another essay from the winners of the Rename Global Warming Contest is here! Plus, a special bonus, a treat for all readers! See below! Don't miss it! John Buckner, "Climactic…
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Posted inStatistics

Judgments About Fact And Fiction By Confused Researchers

Good news first. The peer-reviewed "Judgments About Fact and Fiction by Children From Religious and Nonreligious Backgrounds" by Kathleen Corriveau, Eva Chen, and Paul Harris in Cognitive Science is so…
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Posted inStatistics

10 Misunderstood Scientific Ideas

Friday, time to relax. From reader Ken Steele comes a link to io9's "10 Scientific Ideas That Scientists Wish You Would Stop Misusing" which will be fun to peruse. Can…
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  1. John M on Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!June 11, 2026

    The picture on the video link shows how boring the game is. There are so many people yawning and a…

  2. _Jim on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerJune 11, 2026

    re: "How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power" Having skimmed the above post, I realize my…

  3. _Jim on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 11, 2026

    re: "The only question is capacity to recognize guilt. If the perpetrator was allowed to vote in national elections, the…

  4. _Jim on The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of AnswersJune 10, 2026

    One gains a better understanding of the underpinnings of the grist (the extensions to the 'maths') behind QM (Quantum Mechanics)…

  5. _Jim on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 10, 2026

    I echo Jean Lesperance's response ... overbooked to too many blogs these days!

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