Example Of Bad Trend Analysis
These examples are from the BAMS article “Continental US Hurricane Landfall Frequency And Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks” by PhiliP J. Klotzbach, Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke JR., and…
Category: Statistics
The general theory, methods, and philosophy of the Science of Guessing What Is.
VI Arnold On Models
Thanks to reader Victor Domin for pointing us to the paper “On teaching mathematics” by V.I. Arnold. Here’s an extended quote on models (do read the whole thing). At this…
Weight Of Evidence
Some have the idea that there should be a “weight of evidence” that is separate from probability, or in addition to it. Probability judgments are held more or less strongly,…
Notes On AI Accuracy (Facial Recognition)
Here’s a tweet (addressed to Judea Pearl), “If you could get rid of all the spurious non causal correlations in a machine-learning model, you would be left with only the…
Nature Advocates Using Children To Propagandize Parents
Nature magazine has published the article “Ignorant children should be used to propagandize their more knowledgeable parents.” I might have got the title wrong (click link for actual), but it’s…
Using P-Values To Diagnose “Trends” Is Invalid
Look at the picture, which is real data, but disguised to obscure its source. It is a physical measurement taken monthly by a recognized authority. The measurements are thought to…
The Limitations And Usefulness Of IQ
That Smarts Everybody knows that some people are smarter than others, and that some are teachable and some not. Well, some people do deny these facts, believing that if everybody…
Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. “P-values have some good uses.” No, they don’t. I used every as in every. “P-values…