# Category: Class – Applied Statistics

## What Is The Probability Of COVFEFE?

From a tweet from Taleb, who informs us the following question is part of the Indian Statistical Institute examination. (5) Mr.Trump decides to post a random message on Facebook and he starts […]

## Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part V

Review! This class is neither frequentist nor Bayesian nor machine learning in theory. It is pure probability, and unlike any other class available. And for the right price! We have all we […]

## Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IV

Review! Code coming next week! Last time we decided to put ourselves in the mind of a dean and ask for the chance of CGPA falling into one of these buckets: 0,1,2,3,4. […]

## Parameters Aren’t What You Think

I was asked to comment on a post by Dan Simpson exploring the Bernstein-von Mises theorem. This post fits in with the Data Science class, a happy coincidence, and has been so […]

## Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part III

You must review: Part I, II. Not reviewing is like coming to class late and saying “What did I miss?” Note the New & Improved title! Here are the main points thus […]

## Signal + Noise vs. Signal — Important Update

Update I see that I failed below to demonstrate the ubiquity of the problem. So your homework is to search “testing trend time series” and similar terms and discover for yourself. Any […]

## Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That

Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a “sequence” is defined as a run of […]

## Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part II: Skin in the Game

Read Part I It is in one sense fortunate that the mathematical, or rather quantitative, roots of probability began with gambling. Routine gambles are easy to understand, and the calculations not only […]