Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty
Let’s drag the statistician’s hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we…
Category: Class – Applied Statistics
The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes
The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw.…
So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example
Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: “GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ”. Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read…
When Testing Parameters Might Make Sense
This example is derived from ongoing conversations with a colleague, and portions of this post (mathematified) might show up in a paper. The genesis of this example is from Ron…
Example Of Bad Trend Analysis
These examples are from the BAMS article “Continental US Hurricane Landfall Frequency And Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks” by PhiliP J. Klotzbach, Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke JR., and…
Using P-Values To Diagnose “Trends” Is Invalid
Look at the picture, which is real data, but disguised to obscure its source. It is a physical measurement taken monthly by a recognized authority. The measurements are thought to…
Woke Nature
It has been deemed as unscientific to say that a person’s genitals determines their sex. Genes, too, have been disallowed as scientific evidence. Nature says so, and they are the…
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis
Query: now that I’m a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don’t see how they’d help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via…