Briggs

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Fun

Muppets Offer Human Sacrifice!

Finally! I offer tangible proof that listening to the Beatles can drive one to evil. Prolonged, repetitious exposure to their music causes madness leading, in rare cases, to human sacrifice!…

Culture Philosophy

Studies Show Mike McQueary Did What You Would Have Done

A lot of wrist-twisting and hand-wringing over Mike McQueary's actions after he came across Penn State Coach Jerry Sandusky raping a 10-year-old boy in the showers. McQueary, who Mark Steyn…

Culture

A Black Day Indeed: To Be Thankful For Shopping (Updated)

It is something of a tradition at this blog to commemorate the annual plunge into the depths of mindless materialism and conspicuous consumerism which we call "Black Friday." It is…

McChuck on Student Protests To End After Finals: TWIDApril 26, 2024
Note that the Republican Speaker is willing to use force to shut down anti-Jewish protests, but cares not one whit…
Phileas_Frogg on Look Here, @elonmusk, What Mendacious Hack Or Incompetent Flack Murdered This Tweet?April 26, 2024
Brothers in exile we are, Mr. Briggs. I believe my banishment, going on a year ago, was in response to…
Hagfish Bagpipe on Student Protests To End After Finals: TWIDApril 26, 2024
The comedy is there, as you say, Sarge; and yet, if everyone followed their example, and endured, the slaughter would…
Incitadus on Student Protests To End After Finals: TWIDApril 26, 2024
The irony is deep the luminaries that insist on open borders for every third world hell hole the patriarchy has…
Phileas_Frogg on Student Protests To End After Finals: TWIDApril 26, 2024
Riot, assault and kill American citizens, commit widespread arson, make whole city blocks into warzones, take over police precincts and…