Obama On Way Out? Romeny Hasn’t A Chance? Last Day of Presidential Voting Study

Shouldn’t there be a “don’t know” option for “Who will win the election?” It would be my answer so I can’t participate. On the other hand, having the ability to “select” my sex is interesting.

If it’s truly anonymous, does that mean you aren’t eliminating multiple votes?

I see you do accept multiple votes.

Just a suggestion (maybe for future polls) you could track who voted by at least IP but not store the results with that information. Not completely foolproof. Also not completely anonymous as it depends on YOUR honesty. OTOH, maybe it’s not a real problem but how would you know?

You should have a “I’d would more willingly vote for a dead horse, but I don’t want that other guy to win.” option on the how much you desire your choice to win.

Of course, there are legitimate reasons for a single IP address to have multiple votes (e.g., people living in the same house, working at the same business).

On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.

For those who support neither, blank is the only response to “Who do you want to win.” Is that your intention.

I am going to shed unfavorable light on the way I make decisions. I very often loose my bets, though I bet infrequently (cause and effect?). I say Obama will win and I am willing to make a bet.

Is the purpose of this study learning about the leanings of the readers of this blog? Surely, it is not a representative sample of the population. Could you tell us more Professor?

The political orientation question should offer more choices. I self identify as a conservative leaning libertairian.

I would be intresting to see the predictions and results broken out for some of more mminority political parties / Philosophies.

I completed the survey. I am not a US citizen or even resident.
Did you want non US citizens to do this?

@ paul Callander: Plenty others already doing it for real, so no sense getting picky here.
@ DAV: It’s called “replicating the Chicago effect”.

I find it almost impossible to break down my beliefs into a conservative/progressive split. It depends what political aspect you are examining. I’m close to being an Adam Smith liberal – with liberal being used not as it commonly is in the US as a proxy for socialism. In social matters I align with progressives – in favour of gay rights, pro-choice, secularist. In economic ones I often think less government is best with a dislike of government picked winners, trade union protectionism etc and I am deeply in favour of free-trade and free flows of capital, ideas and people. In the UK I align reasonably well with liberal conservativism, but in the US I could fit under either centrist Republican or Democrat umbrellas – both can attract and repel me depending upon which part of their platform they are emphasizing.

Prof Briggs what aspects of the word progressive and conservative are you emphasizing? My gut feeling is that I am a conservative, but am pretty sure you would dismiss me as a progressive – horses for courses and all that but I feel a tripartite breakdown of Progressive, Independent, Conservative would be better and for methodologically different reasons than your binary split between being able to make a guess or not.

Oh, also do you want foreigners confusing your poll with their different political spectra? I can publicize you poll, but it would be on British orientated sites and they would have similar problems to those identified above – the US conservative/progressive split doesn’t real fit “abroad”!

@Matt (err…some other Matt 🙂 )

One of Briggs’ interests is wishcasting, which is seeing how your desires affect your predictions. IIRC, he explicitly mentioned that aspect last time around, and I assume similar motivations apply here.

William,

In the case of “Who do you want to win?” I left it blank. I don’t want either of them to win, I think they are both deficient. So, an “other” option would be nice there, even for those of us that know that “other” isn’t really a viable option. Given that it’s an opinion of choice though, reality shouldn’t constrain choice. 😛

Available answers for “who do you want to win?” should include “Johnson” and “Neither”

Not an american, yet made the poll, hope you don’t mind (I do keep up with american politics quite well… for instance I did listen to most speeches of the conventions, yes that included the dreadful (but cute) speech by Clint).

Are dead people allowed to vote too? That’s what happens in Chicago.

So there are four possible outcomes:

predict A, desire A
predict A, desire B
predict B, desire B
predict B, desire A

Which of these are “wishcasting”? Or are they all wishcasting, with two of them based on perverse wishes? If so, when are predictions (like these) not wishcasting?

Note that if wishcasting exists, it must exist regardless of the final outcome.

I voted in the survey, but left the ‘want to win’ sections blank. A rational US citizen must be feeling somewhat afflicted. Our Barry never had the currency or the record for the job. And as one of our Colonel’s scathingly put in one of his officers assessments “has performed his duties entirely to his own satisfaction”. His running mate, words fail. We got a good look at Mr Romney on his European tour, mans a knob. His running mate is a liar in the Nixon class, “he’ll even tell a lie when it’s not convenient to, the mark of a true master”. J. Average voter must feel that he’s gone to hospital with pneumonia and been offered the choice between a colonoscopy and urethral scrape. Neither of which will address his issues.

Should there be a “Don’t care” category for who will win?