Here’s the panicky headline: “Long periods of extreme heat can accelerate biological age, scientists say”.
Longer periods of extreme heat has been found to accelerate biological age in older adults by up to two years, according to new research.
More heat days over time correlated with deterioration at the molecular and cellular level in adults 56 years or older, likely because the biological deterioration accumulates over time and eventually leads to disease and disability, Eunyoung Choi, a postdoctoral associate at the University of California’s Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, told ABC News.
The peer-reviewed paper is “Ambient outdoor heat and accelerated epigenetic aging among older adults in the US” by Eunyoung Choi and Jennifer Ailshire in Science Advances. They collected blood and measured temperatures where donors lived, with up to a 6-year lag, and used “Multilevel regression models are used to predict PCPhenoAge acceleration, PCGrimAge acceleration, and DunedinPACE.” That’s the terms they used in the abstract.
They have maps scientifically demonstrating that, say, Florida is hotter than, say, Michigan. Think of that. They busted out heat days by “caution” levels and some other rigmarole, then crammed the lot into “multilevel regression models”. Those models had coefficients related to aging items, like that “PCPhenoAge acceleration” and so on. The higher the coefficient, the greater temperature was said to accelerate aging in years. Zero means no effect. Here’s the main picture:

That’s a screenshot, and is blurry for whatever reason. Go to the paper to see the original. Know that “BC day” is blood collection day. Passing by PhenoAge, the effects only started with temperatures from 1 to 6 years ago. But with PhenoAge there was a steady effect of about 1 years’ aging—and pay close attention here—starting from blood collection day. This is absurd.
If you aged a year, phenotypically for every hot day today, and also aged a year for hot days 7 days ago, and also aged a year for hot days 30 days ago, and also aged a year for hot days 60 days ago, and also aged two or three years for hot days one year ago, and also aged two or three years for hot days six years ago, you’d be dead by the end of summer.
Either that or PhenoAge isn’t related to real age and is merely a statistical artifact, the result of needlessly complicated models.
None of this makes sense. Especially that bizarre jump at 1 and 6 years. Either temperature takes years to sink into the core of marrow and do its dirty deeds to blood, or temperature now does little, but it always works 1 or 6 years ago. This is stranger, too, because 6 years ago keeps changing. Every year it was a new 6 years ago, and a new 1 year ago, but these mysteriously keep effecting the blood.
Deep into the discussion, they signal that maybe not all is right with their model: “The short-term physiological effects of heat stress might not be stable and may last only a few days.” Which means you don’t age a year on a hot day? Never mind.
If there is truth that heat is aging people faster people in, say, Singapore, which is hot all year round, should be dropping dead at earlier ages than those in, say, Finland, which is the opposite of hot all year round. Here’s a picture of the life expectancy in Singapore, and also Malaysia (also hot) and Hong Kong (not cold; all from Google, which automatically added those other countries):

Here’s one from Finland (cold), but also Denmark (cool) and Greece (hot):

You can see the dip over the years of the covid panic in all countries. But recall, we’re told that every year, year upon year, is the “hottest year evah”, with many saying the number of hot-hot days are increasing, again year on year.
But as temperatures increase (if they do), so does life expectancy! Which means, if we do statistics in the manner of Choi and Ailshire, that “climate change” is making people live longer! Woo-hoo!
Incidentally, since they did this “research” in the USA, it helps to know the CDC tracks life expectancy by state, both at birth (how many years on average people live) and at 65 (how many years the average person lives after reaching 65). Here are the numbers for 2020.
Hawaii, the hottest state on average all year round, with averages around 70 in the coldest months, and near 90 in the summers, had the highest life expectancy (80.7 years), and highest at 65 (21 years).
Michigan, which I can personally attest is damn cold, ranks 36 at birth (76 years) and also 36 at 65 (17.8 years). Whereas hot-hot-hot Florida ranks 19th at birth (77.5 years), soaring to number 6 at 65 (19.2 years).
The signal is the same: if you want to live longer, move to where it’s hot when you’re 65. Thanks, “climate change”!
It took about 15 minutes to check all these numbers. I don’t know how long it took Choi and Ailshire to do their regressions.
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Be interesting to feed their names into data_republican’s database and see what falls out.
Don’t see any contact info so I’ll just post it here even though not relevant to this particular article, but in your wheelhouse.
CATO recently ran an article espousing “private company vaccination requirements”. They cited a study claiming that requiring vaccinations of employees reduced nursing home deaths. https://www.nber.org/papers/w33072
Here was the abstract quote that caught my eye and made me wonder, given the number of articles I’ve read here:
“implementing a vaccine mandate led to large increases in staff vaccinations at mandate facilities, which directly led to less transmission of and lower patient mortality from COVID. We estimate that vaccine mandates saved one patient life for every two facilities that enacted a mandate, ”
If it’s worth analyzing the study, I figure you’re the guy to do it. If not, no worries.
Factor to consider: Florida has a significant number of old folks who immigrated. They then start riding bicycles, walking, getting lots of sun, relaxing, etc. The old folks in Venice, Florida, where I live, seem pretty happy about life here. I’m 90 and have lived here for 20 years.