How Did We Do In Our 2024 Predictions?

I’m happy to report that we had a good crop of predictions for 2024. As is usual, I only highlight the best, or worst, or funniest forecast every entrant gave.

I rate everybody guesses set using math and science consisting of a secret patented formulas borrowed from string theory and calculated on a quantum computer located at an undisclosed location in the multiverse. Scoring was by number of correct predictions, weighted by what I perceived as their difficulty.

The WINNER, the BEST GUESSER OF 2024 was…I’m tempted to say Nobody, like last year, but in the spirit of goodwill we can’t leave the prize on the shelf for two years in a row, so the award goes to

The Invisible Hand.

Because I think he was on to the one thing most of us missed. That the Regime was not unhappy to have Trump as President, especially given their alternative. They voiced opposition, sure, and some even tried to remove Trump eligibility, permanently, if you follow me. But in the end they bowed to the inevitable and gave over to the idea of controlling things under Trump.

Most of the rest of us hit various targets. But they were large, easy ones, of the kind of barn-sized bullseyes pinged with a spring-loaded BB gun. Very few saw deeply.

Like last year, this includes me. Many foresaw an assassination or its attempt against Trump. Like last year, some said they saw the same happening to Zalensky. Or they (again) predicted the death of the man in charge of the Vatican. None of us got those right. Again a repeat, some foresaw the coming of the end of the Russia-Ukraine war—but it hasn’t ended yet.

Many said Biden would win. Or Trump would, but the election would be fortified after the fact. Well, they still have three weeks left to go on that prediction.

There predictions in and around other ideas, some right or close and some wrong, but not far wrong. The real problem was the world did not cooperate. There were many things locally important but — and here we can be thankful — there weren’t that many globally important.

Enter New Predictions for 2025 starting this Thursday, 2 January (not here; a new article will appear).

2024’s Predictions

Starting with the blog, then Substack, in the order in which they were made. Search for your name.

Blog

Briggs

• “Trump is taken out, or, if by some miracle he wins, he is taken out the old-fashioned way shortly after the election. Gavin “Gruesome” Newsom is installed at least as the Democrat candidate, and likely the Presidency. But I now wonder if it could be by the VP route, since nobody wants Kamala.” Completely, utterly, woefully, stupidly wrong.

Dan Diego

• “Donald Trump wins, again, though the polling devices, again, experience unfortunate glitches and…” And, thankfully, nothing.

Michael Dowd

• “Trump elected President.” You bet.
• “Pope Francis no longer Pope.” Alas.

Sander van der Wal

• “Wilders becomes prime minister of the Netherlands.” He did indeed.
• “The Israeli Cabinet will fall, because the hawks will oust Netanyahu.” Does prostate surgery count as ousting?

Aaron

• “EU financial world is levelled, precipitating a civil or regional war”. Boy was that a gloomy prediction we are happy has not happened. Yet.

Simon Platt

• “Leo XIV succeeds Francis I.” Alas.
• “President-elect Trump is assassinated.” Twice attempted, one a near hit, as this prediction is. But we still have three weeks to go.

The Invisible Hand

• “Regime continues to pretend to fight Trump while installing him as president.” Nailed it.
• “There will be no major big gov’t scams (like covid, ‘climate change’, etc) until after the installation, 2025 at the earliest.” So far, so true.

Zundfolge

• “There will be at least one serious assassination attempt on Trump.” Two, in fact.
• “Democrats will find some way (likely dishonest chicanery, possibly outright assassination like Scalia) to remove Clarence Thomas from the Supreme Court.” They did try, with whinings about gifts, but they failed.

Ignacio García Blanco

• “Argentina will have a booming economy.” They did, gratifying all except the inverately morose.
• “US election will be tight, but I don’t think Trump will get elected.” Wrong on both counts.

Yancey Ward

• “Biden or his replacement is ‘elected’ after 3 a.m. the day after the election with 100 million votes.” They did try this, but gave up hope. They were successful in these ploys for Congressional elections, especially in Michigan.
• “The first class action lawsuit against Pfizer and Moderna gets OKed by a judge somewhere.” Not yet.

Yawrate

• “Biden withdraws very close to the Dem convention”. Or was withdrawn.
• “Serious backlash against tranny transitions”. Up to a point, yes, especially for children. But in practice the practice continues unabated.

Jim Fedako

• “Trump/Vivek ticket wins”. Yes/No. And happily on both.
• “Folks finally realize that without original, human-produced content, AI generative models can only hallucinate responses – the world is not doomed to be taken over by bots.” Some have realized this, but many choose to believe. We haven’t seen the end of it yet.

Incitadus

• “Russia nukes Ukraine.” Egads.
• “N Korea nukes S Korea” and in his third prediction “Israel nukes Iran.” A theme was bypassed.

Paul Murphy

• “the most effective anti-maga strategy open to the democrats continues to be the murder of Kamala Harris by someone who can be presented as a Trump supporter.” There was no need, really, because of the widespread doubt that Harris was alive to begin with.

Plantagenet

• “Labour wins UK election but on the continent leftists are defeated in every major National, or EU vote. Immigration becomes virtually the only issue.” They did win, but the UK deems determined still to DIE.
• “The German Church moves closer to outright schism, Rome dithers, the press announces any move to the left as ‘A miracle’ and ignores or condemns any conservative response.” This was mostly true, but it is always mostly true, so it receives very little weight in the scoring.

William R

• “China formalizes its invasion of Taiwan.” Not yet; China appears to be happy playing the long game.
• “The Dem convention becomes a flash point especially since it is on Chicago. Several possible paths to major issues: An assassination/kidnapping/insurrection plot is ‘uncovered’ by the FBI;” If the FBI can’t find them, they’ll make them up. Have to keep busy you know.

Robert E

• “A serious Tesla fire in an enclosed place (like a garage) is a catastrophe and creates a backlash for EVs”. This happened, perhaps surprisingly, but by leftist arsonists in Germany.
• “The US ends up in a hot war of some sort, just ahead of the election”. They did try, and pretty hard, too. But they failed.

Hun

• “Israel will temporarily tire of murdering children in Gaza and things will go back to what passes as normal in that area.” Not yet; still full of vigor.
• “A Chinese company will announce a breakthrough in the field of photolithography, making a potential war over Taiwan less likely.” If there was such a thing, we haven’t heard of it.

Mark

• “The Supreme Court will let states strike Trump from the ballot.” No, but all the DIE hires voted that way, as everybody knew they would, even before these DIE hires heard any arguments.
• “The Ukraine conflict is settled.” Nope.

hudbwu

• “Annualized inflation in USA ends the year above 20% and the Fed can’t figure out how to reduce it.” They’re certainly spending enough to make this possible, but the inflation didn’t hit at this level.
• “Somewhere in EU a public animal sacrifice is offered to some god or goddess”. This happened in France. During the Olympics, wasn’t it?

John M

• “After release of the Epstein Island visitor names, the Demos will go full pedo and pass laws allowing intercourse with anyone, or anything, at any age.” This is something to which we still look forward.
• “AI will start fading away to irrelevance with successful intellectual properties/plagiarism lawsuits, like the current NYT suit.” The very opposite was true. And likely will remain true for some time.

Uncle Mike

• “2024 will be the Year of Terror. Dozens (possibly hundreds) of already-infiltrated Islamo fascist terrorist teams will carry out their planned attacks in major urban areas”. Nothing more than the usual background rates, it seems.
• “The urban riots will, as planned, disrupt the Vote, and in the chaos the Dem-mafia will employ their usual voting fraud and sabotage tactics, only more so.” The left had the wind sucked from their lungs after Trump survived his assassination attempts.

Kevin C

• “‘Folks’ across the political spectrum will agree that immigration should be reduced to zero (or extremely close to it) and a large volume of illegal aliens should be deported.” Right on the money, and in dramatic fashion in the Christmas Twitter War, pitting Musk against (what he calls) The Voice of God. And God won. This battle anyway.
• “An elected official publicly announces they are sexually attracted to minors.” No, but you smell it in the air.

Cary D Cotterman

• “Assassination or at least attempted assassination of Trump. If the latter and he survives healthy, it will boost his rating.” Couldn’t have predicted it better.
• “Biden finally has an on-screen meltdown so bad not even the Dem media can deny or spin it. California’s Governor Hair Gel is in, and is ‘elected’ to the presidency in November.” Half right, anyway.

Scott Locklin

• “Someone shoots Zelensky”. Amazingly, no. Unless you meant from the US Money Cannon.
• “There continues to be no quantum computard.” They did try their Annual Breakthrough Announcement. But fewer people fell for it this year.

CanSco

• “Trudeau will not resign in 2024 and there will not be a Canadian federal election. He will continue to hold power as long as possible and continue to inflict destructive, divisive policies on the nation, notably with immigration and climate policy. I would dearly love to be proved wrong.” You have not been proven wrong.

Stephen

• “Trump won’t be alive in January 1, 2025. He will have a heart attack.” This will be published about 17 hours before the deadline, so we’ll see.
• “‘Pope Francis’ will also die.” He’s still there. He may outlast us all.

Johnno

• “Hell’s Cardinal Tucho Fernandez will write a new motu proprio, signed and issued by his unholiness Francis I, that their church will open up more pastoral avenues for blessing, baptizing and incorporating in liturgical roles – Transgenders” No, but you did get a Major Motion Picture imagining the very thing.
• “The 2024 Summer Olympics will be a horribly hosted experience,…” Yes, but really this was too easy.

Nym Coy

• “The hordes of illegal immigrants will be offered a path to citizenship by fighting in WWIII, since Americans are too unhealthy and medicated to do it.” No; or, rather, not yet.

pouncer

• “The Judge in Michael Mann’s libel lawsuit against Simberg and Steyn will attempt to “split the baby” by disallowing any evidence or testimony on climate science itself or the validity of the hockey stick, …” It seems that Steyn lost and has to pay the botch of nature Mann.
• “The risks to Earth from outer space will *again* be illustrated to compare to AGW — a Carrington Event solar flare will degrade our communications, or…[etc.]” We did get the Great NJ Shore Drone Mystery. Does that count?

C-Marie

• “President Trump will win the presidential election in the United States in 2024. There will be a pseudo peace among Americans for two to three years. Then we will experience that which God allows, as His purpose is to make dear to people’s hearts, their extreme and total need of salvation, available only in and through His Son, Jesus Christ, whatever their religion and beliefs are, now.” We’re on the path at any rate.

Nate

• “Briggs continues to entertain and inform with posts throughout the year, constantly beset by his enemies inserting grammar and spelling mistakes into his posts.” They are everywhere and they never sleep.

Zapollo

• “There will be a major terrorist attack on US soil, possibly at one of the big political conventions. The perpetrators will be identified as Palestinians or Palestinian sympathizers.” Many small incidents, none that fit the bill of ‘terrorism’ proper.
• “There will be yet another scandal involving Chinese espionage.” The Salt Typhoon indeed struck!

Rudolph Harrier

• “A white man shoots a rioter in self defense, which is captured on video and blatantly shows the rioter trying to kill him.” That is really a daily forecast in some cities. So it’s too common to count.

Jan Van Betsuni

• “Odessa Oblast is occupied by a large contingent of Russian Security Forces making Ukraine a defacto landlocked State. Zelensky flees to his pied-à-terre.” Many, all over the place, predicted this. It may still happen, if he lives.
• “A retaliatory air-assault by Hezbollah on Haifa’s port facilities triggers a massive exodus from Israel.” Sort of the opposite of what happened.

Chaeremon

• “More and more educators will only accept consensus if it is in the form of raw data for processing with computers. They will formulate objections to idiotic claims, e.g. ask for experiments, and in this way the notoriously fraudulent pal review will gradually be replaced.” A hopeful prediction. We haven’t seen it, or much of it, yet.

John Pate

• “As for Orange Man Bad I think there’s a good chance of him being elected in 2024 to complete the destruction of the American economy but with the blame squarely laid on the ‘right wing.'” Right on the first, and also the second, but no points for the second because every bad thing is blamed on the “right wing.”

h g s

• “Russia/Ukraine war and Israel/Palestine war both continue to the end of 2024.” One of the very few who had this gloomy, but accurate, prediction.
• “Putin re-elected in Russia, while Trump is stoped by legal warfare from running for president. Biden kept as stand in President in USA.” Yes, No, No.

Jameson Campaigne

• “The Democrat convention in Chicago will resemble that of 1968, lots of uncontrolled mayhem, with the same political results as back then, a R Party wave election, with at least for D Senate seats falling to R’s.” There were shades and echoes, but in the end it was not as tumultuous.

MikeW

• “Vladimir Putin will be deposed.” The opposite, in fact.
• “Egypt will assume administrative control over the Gaza Strip.” Also the opposite, as it were.

Robin

• “The breakaway civilization that has been planned for some time will come to the attention of the masses. This is the establishment of a multi-trilion dollar, sub-orbital, off-planet, satellite-based communication, surveillance, banking and data storage economy under the control of a few elites.” They are still hiding it from us.
• “There will be call to reign in the elites behind this development that will be used by the left and right to justify calls for a single inter-galactic legal governance framework, AKA Star Trek style, that goes far beyond the destruction the nation-state that is currently being attempted.” Dude.

JerryR

• “Biden will be reelected but his VP will be Michelle.” No, but it would have been hilarious.

Kenan

• “By end of 2024 it will become apparent that Ukraine is going to break in pieces”. I’d say it’s been apparent a lot earlier. But those making a hefty profit from the war are still pretending, in public, that Ukraine will win.

cookie

• “JFK jnr will be named in Epstein revelations.” He did say something about a brain worm.

GamecockJerry

• “SP goes to 5,000,then drops below 4,000.” It did go to 5,000, dipped a mite for a day or two, then climbed to nearly 6,000.

Codex

• “Sarah Hoyt will write at least three new books on three new series. They will be awesome.” I had to look her up. Hilarious. Wokepedia says “She won the 2011 Prometheus Award for Best Libertarian SF Novel for her science fiction novel Darkship Thieves,” Who even knew there was a category for Best Libertarian SF Novel.

spaceranger

• “Things have been quiet on the abortion front lately, expect it to heat up as the election nears and policy initiatives are put on the ballots in key states to increase democratic turnout.” True to an extent, but it only affected local/state elections.

Charles West

• “The next war will be in Lebanon. The US will lose at least one warship.” Close, close.

Dors

• “In the region between the Eastern Mediterranean coast and the Persian Gulf, the total amount of military conflicts will grow.” In other predictions, some are saying the Sun will rise in the East.
• “The Western derivatives markets will cause an unprecedented degree of controversy”. Didn’t happen.

spudjr60

• “The easy one: The US Supreme Court will overrule the Colorado Supreme Court and Trump will be on the Primary ballot.” Yep.
• “The one I hope doesn’t happen, but can’t shake it: A nuclear bomb will be exploded as a weapon of war somewhere on Planet Earth.” Your hope was granted. So far.

JohnM

• “€uro in big trouble in November.” Doesn’t seem so.

Phileas_Frogg

• “At least a few US politicians, Federal and/or State, will be killed/assassinated. Things are simply becoming too fatalistic to avoid such a scenario.” We avoided it, but only by a fortuitous turn of the head.
• “New York State will readjust, put a moratorium on, or extend their mandate for Electric Buses for all Public Schools, due to it’s utter impossibility in 90% of the state.” I don’t think they did; if so, I missed it.

TimothyS

• “Tucker Carlson is Donald Trumps Choice for VP.” Many would have cheered, but no.

Substack

Flippin’ Jersey

• “The Walking Corpse known as Joe Biden will ‘win’ reelection with 83 million votes.” First part was right.
• “Contrary to the hopes expressed by many authors in Substack, the demise of DIE (and Harvard, et al.) will not proceed apace, but will be forced underground, where new, insidious methods of discrimination will be applied.” Absolutely correct. It’s even accelerating in some places, like the UK.

Jipowap von Angband

• “China goes to war in the Middle East/Western Asia.” They flex, but rarely attack. No open war yet.
• “We get a tiny taste of solar flare activity and the whole world goes apeshit over faraday cages and hardening devices against EMP activity.” This happened on a small scale a few months back. But it was no more than a blip. Which is a pun.

John Henry Holliday, DDS

• “Trump will ‘win’ on election night but, within hours, videos and eyewitness accounts of irregularities at election sites will be amplified non-stop.” Thankfully, this is wrong.
• “All quiet on the Ukrainian Front for this year.” Make this prediction again for 2025 and it’ll likely hit.

Yarrow

• “Real estate market goes pear-shaped, and it’s worse than 2008. 50/50 odds on that one. If not this year, then next. I’m really hoping it happens sooner. Get it over with.” It appears as if it will later and not sooner.
• “Migrants continue to swarm across the border. Admin makes soothing noises and gives some money to big cities, but the uniparty supports the migration, and nobody will do anything in an election year.” Correct.

Lon Guyland

• “I don’t know about you, but I’m not thinking that what has been an obvious coup d’état is just going to fade into the woodwork.” Depends of who couped whom.

Vxi7

• “My most depressing prediction is that actually nothing will change. People will keep bashing the table at home but DEI/ESG, climate boiling, lgbtqwerty, ignoring excess death will go on exactly the same as in the last years.” Yes, but this is like a winter-will-be-colder-than-summer prediction.

Crusader Bashir

• “After a Biden win, there will be an attack from a ‘RW neo Nazi group’ they will use to further crack down on their enemies, and on us.” Didn’t happen, but many wanted it to.
• “Newsom will *not* become president, because they instead go for a black lesbian, or a transgender.” I believe Kamala fits what you were going for here.

PJ London

• “Climate Change will still dominate much of the news, ‘stop oil’ and all the other idiots will still make the headlines whilst the vast majority will ignore their nonsense. People will not believe or stand for another ‘Pandemic’ scare no matter how much propaganda is pushed on them.” This hit, but they didn’t seem to push that hard on these fronts this year, perhaps because of the election.
• “‘Streets of Blood’ will actually happen in Europe as the migrant populations will become disillusioned with the lack of benefits to their situation.” Not yet; or, rather, not generally. But few would bet against you if you were to make this prediction again for 2025.

Gilgamech

• “Biden will not be the candidate by the time polling day rolls around.” He wasn’t.
• “America will be at war for every day of 2024.” Conditional hit. We’re always bombing somebody.

Medical Truth Podcast

• “Joe Biden will not be reelected; Gavin Newsom will be installed as POTUS, and Michele Obama will be Vice President! (I hope I’m wrong)” Your hopes were granted.
• “Trust for most Government leaders worldwide will be at an all-time low, and there will be mass protests! (Again, I hope I am wrong)” You were right about the first part, and wrong about the second. The people only rarely rise up.

upset

• “Defaults on trillions of dollars of Commercial Real Estate loans in the US will precipitate a global financial crisis.” Didn’t happen, but you wonder why.
• “The return of QE triggers a flight out of US dollar denominated assets by foreign investors and causes the US Treasury and Federal Reserve to accelerate their plans to move the US to a ‘digital dollar.'” They are trying this.

Tamsin

• “The birth rate continues to drop like a rock in white America.” It did.

CG

• “There will be a major health scandal in NZ this year, apart from whatever happens with the COVID hangover.” I don’t think there was.
• “At least one major city centre [in NZ] will be looted by a demonstration/riot.” Didn’t happen. This year/

Kent Clizbe

• ” War: Zelensky will be removed from power (either assassinated, or retire to Israel/Miami).” Didn’t happen, but the Miami was a nice touch.
• “The year ends with Trump attempting to counter-act the fraud. The Deep State finally cracks down, and arrests him and a handful of his top aides for insurrection.” They didn’t have it in them this year, and decided to cooperate with Trump, since the oligarchs still get most of, or even more of, what they want with him in.

Mark Bisone

• “The dollar will be knocked off its perch as the world’s reserve currency. By that time, BRICS will have acquired more letters than the Sodomite Mafia’s latest acronym.” Knocked off is too strong, but the challenge has begun, especially with the petro-dollar. I think BRICS is still BRICs.
• “A cabal of panicking psywar operatives and transnational ‘rules-based order’ types will attempt to orchestrate a fully synthetic event that will make the COVID scam look like a game of Three-card Monty.” They didn’t have anybody of sufficient intelligence on their side to get away with it.

the long warred

• “Conservatives talk, Liberals Kill.” Well, yes.

Virtus in Fine

• “Trump will win, but he’ll be just effective/ineffective enough that the right calms down, while nothing actually changes.” First part right, second part likely right.
• “A war will break out that coincidentally distracts China and Iran from moving on Taiwan or Israel. The US will be involved by proxy.” No, only the usual ruthless wars by the usual players.

John Malone

• “But in the unlikely event Biden makes it to the election and 1) holds, then there will be unparalleled societal chaos.” Thankfully, the unlikely event did not occur.

Bacon Commander

• “more restrictive access to healthy foods and clean water.” Something of an opposite move is in progress, at least on-line. How much it plays in real life, we’ll see.

Phil Shannon

• “Australia withdraws from the WHO.” They didn’t, but should have.
• “The President, any President, of the US remembers the name of the Australian Prime Minister.” This wins the Funniest Prediction, which failed.

mct

• “A Chinese-inspired coup in a Pacific Country. PNG as a best bet. Include the Solomons and Vanuatu in your multiples.” Didn’t happen.
• ” Iceland will be as near as dammit be put out of action by a continuing series of tectonic disasters. Reykjavik and the airport, especially.” A volcano did erupt the end of November, lasting into December, causing some disruptions.

JeffDavid

• “The Climate will refuse to stay the same.” By Golly, you’re right.

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