Here’s a graph which I entitle Gradually Then Suddenly (ladies, try not to swoon over my astonishing artistic gifts):
If you’re a classicist you might prefer the title Motus In Fine Velocior, which means things accelerate at the end. Which was the old way to say Gradually Then Suddenly.
The collapse that interests us today is Western Christianity. We had the Gradually. A case can be made we’re now, or soon will be, in the Suddenly.
If you are inclined to dismiss this claim out of hand and stop reading, then please meet “Luce”, the Vatican’s mascot for the Holy Year of 2025. The daisy-chain emblem on its chest is usually presented in rainbow colors. Brony-boy Christianity has arrived. It gives me felt-banner flashbacks and when I look at it I swear I can hear treacly Intro-To-Piano communion music playing as I look at it.
In the briefest way possible, leaving aside all sublties, let’s trace the curve of Gradually.
Western Christianity suffered a hit as it neared its peak about a thousand years ago when the Orthodox and Romans had a dispute about a vowel (I do not jest). Yet, in the end, this was more a practical than a spiritual split. The real decline began with events leading up to some Christians Protesting certain excesses, but drawing from their success the unfortunate conclusion that every man could, should, and would be his own priest.
They weren’t wrong in this prediction. They nailed it. Protesting Christian sects at first swelled in numbers wonderful to behold. Yet since interpretation is free, nothing prevents belief in the proposition “We don’t need the transcendent”. This was embraced and the masses began falling off. Membership in once enormous Protesting groups is now reduced to a husk, peopled only by a dry remnant. Think Church of England. One fellow tracks a number of UK Protesting sects and figures most will be extinct in 10 years. Whether that’s true, there is no sense of any increase, especially in those without gray hair. It’s not helping that even as the ordained decrease, the majority are now women (55% new ordinations in 2020 were women in the CoE).
One man has a site entirely devoted to church attendance modeling. To pick what might be the best single picture from the site, here is the membership in Methodists in Great Britain (up to 2020). Don’t forget, while looking at this, that the Great Britain population was about 10 million at the start of the plot, and was about 69 million at the end. So it is much worse than it looks.
Gallup discovered in 2021 that Church membership (across all denominations) in the States fell below 50% of the population in 2021. Not attendance, mind, which is always lower, but membership. Here is their version of Gradually Then Suddenly, which looks (and looks can deceive) to be heading into Suddenly territory:
I don’t want to bore us with a flood of numbers, because they are all much the same. Here’s one source for Europe. Church membership, belief in God, which in post-Christian countries means belief in the Christian God, belief in doctrine, all down, down, down. Most places it’s as it is in the USA: Church members are now in the minority, or soon will be. There are still pockets of life here and there, of course, and even isolated growth. But a lot of growth in smaller denominations is from people fleeing the collapse of the larger ones.
The Romans still boast of a large census, which is even true in practice outside the West, in places. In the West itself? Well, they are turning “synodal”, by which is meant Protesting. “Listening”, “inclusion”, “accompanying”, “journeying together”, “discerning”, “dialoging”, and other nausea-inducing verbiage predominate in the leadership.
Here’s some rough plots (found here) compiled from the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate site.
Population of the USA in 1970 was just over 200 million. It’s at least 350 million now, not counting all those who entered illegally. Meaning, again, the pictures are far worse than they appear.
Here’s Fr John Naugle quoting Sheen, who wrote late in the Gradually period:
“Ethical Christianity has failed. Western Civilization is not just suffering from a famine of spiritual values; it is not even caring about them. It is now seeking to stuff itself with the husks of the secular, the economic, the political, the worldly. This new thing which no longer is concerned with the soul, but with the belly, is a philosophy of life which mobilizes souls for economic and secular ends, a Ceasarism or adoration of the State, a glorification of the human collective through the depersonalization of man, and a suffocation of human personality and its subsequent absorption into the mass.” Archbishop Fulton Sheen
Here’s two flavorful anecdotes pertinent to the Gradually-Suddenly debate. The first is the Australian headline (from a “neutral” news source): “Former Labor powerbroker Joe de Bruyn sparks graduation ceremony walkout with abortion and gay marriage comments”. Quote (second ellipsis theirs):
Hundreds of staff, students and their families have walked out of a graduation ceremony at the Australian Catholic University after former Labor powerbroker Joe de Bruyn began spouting Catholic views on abortion and gay marriage. …
However ACU students from the faculties of education and arts, and law and business were stunned when the ex-union boss began spouting Catholic doctrine in his speech.
“He was just talking about all these accomplishments in politics and unions and stuff, and then it took a hard right turn, and he started talking about how abortion was wrong,” ACU student Charlie Pantelli told ABC Melbourne on Tuesday.
“It was shocking. I only heard abortions and then IVF, and I was one of the first to get up… I’ve said ‘that this is enough’ and I left.”…
The ACU student estimated 95 per cent of the audience walked out during the speech, claiming the people who stuck around were only doing so to record it for news outlets.
Spouting, you will have noticed. Spouting correct Catholic views at a Catholic University, during an official Catholic function.
In fairness, it may have been the first time Charlie Pantelli, and the other hundreds who walked out, heard Catholic teaching on these matters. Meaning the priests and religious charged with instructing Charlie, and the hundreds, let them down.
Many priests do run from dogma, some because they don’t hold with it (hello, Germany), others because of fear. Of their bishops, of the women who have taken over their parish, of the public. You name it. At ACU, they trotted out a flak to say the expected asinine thing: “ACU is committed to providing a safe, inclusive and respectful environment for students and staff of all beliefs.”
All beliefs? All? Do they hear themselves speak? My dear readers, of course they do not. Propagandists are not chosen for their intelligence.
Here is our second story. I don’t want to make too much of it, because it is one of a legion of such idiocies. From this story:
The city of Toulouse has just welcomed to its city centre a questionable machine, nicknamed Lilith, depicting a disturbing creature that is half-woman, half-scorpion, with spider legs and ram’s horns. The invention was originally developed for the Hellfest festival, held every year in Brittany. This international gathering of metal bands is always the occasion for a debauchery of satanic references and mortifying symbols, even if the organisers insist that it’s simply a question of “culture” and that there’s nothing wrong with these artistic representations of dubious taste.
The plastic and metal toy features a nude woman’s torso which looks like any of those nauseating “music” performers we are everywhere plagued with. It is doubtful any of the people involved in this childish stunt believe any of the nonsense surrounding the bacchanalia. The only interesting thing about it is they thought of playacting like this in public. In living memory, they would never have dared: to be this disrespectful to their elders would never have occurred to them. Today, they would see it as disrespect if they were barred from their activity.
Yet there is still life in the Church. The Archbishop of Toulouse, one Msgr. Guy de Kerimel, decided upon a “spiritual response”, and dedicated the city to the Sacred Heart of Jesus. Which is on the Gradually, not Suddenly, side of the ledger.
There have been bleak times and revivals and Awakenings, and only a fool would say they are impossible. Still, it seems to me Suddenly looms. Transcendence is like the helium in a balloon from a birthday party from last week. The End of Suddenly does not mean there are or will be none left in the Church in the West, but that it ceases to be any important cultural force.
Subscribe or donate to support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card click here. Or use the paid subscription at Substack. Cash App: \$WilliamMBriggs. For Zelle, use my email: matt@wmbriggs.com, and please include yours so I know who to thank.
Sadness.
I often become angry with the Church – the duplicitous bishops and pusillanimous priests and the gay hierarchy in Rome – but then I realized we cannot blame God for bad priests for without bad priests we should have hardly any at all.
But Mr Briggs – have you not noticed? – the public (and SCOTUS) approbation of homosexuality has eliminated seminaries as a hiding place for the sexually perverse. The Holy Spirit is at work in the Church. I have met 6 young priests in the last 10 years and they are devout, committed, courageous and humble. They reject the Modernist Teilhardian heresies of their elders. The hippie-type flower power clergy of my generation are dying off and the depredations of PF and company cannot prevail against the remnant of the Faith.
Today’s Gospel:
“Someone asked Jesus, “Lord, will only a few people be saved?”
He answered them, “Strive to enter through the narrow gate, for many, I tell you, will attempt to enter but will not be (spiritually) strong enough.–Luke 13:22-30
Comment: Most Clergy and regular folks like the wide open and inviting gate–Protestantism, Vatican II, none.
The interesting thing is that the evidence and logic for God is overwhelming.
The atheist/agnostic has no answer to the age old question. “Why Does Anything Exist?” Yet they dominate the discourse.
But that is not what is communicated in the Church. What is communicated is how to be a better Catholic not why one should be a Catholic in the first place. I assume other Christian denominations are similar.
The evidence and logic for Christ is also overwhelming though not as much as it is for a creator. But none of this is communicated and the Church just begs the question on WHY? Why God? Why Christ?
I am in the midst of preparing a PowerPoint presentation on Why and have been told the best way to disseminate it in the US is through the Knights of Columbus. These statistics you provide will be useful I hope. We will see because I find little interest by clerics.
Pingback: VVEDNESDAY MID-DAY EDITION | BIG PULPIT
The Filioque controversy: the emotional and intellectual energy squandered on such complete nonsense is astounding. My granny, raised on a Texas farm around the turn of the twentieth century, had a faith in and love for the Lord as strong as any of those silk-and-satin-gowned clowns with their silly hats, and no use for any of their dogmatic jerking off. If there’s a God, I have no doubt he’ll welcome her into Heaven at least as readily as he will those fools.
“Why does anything exist?”
That may be the greatest question ever asked, and the answer might be “God”. But we can’t say “We don’t know why, therefore it’s God”. That’s not logic. That’s just making stuff up.
We don’t know the answer, yet.
Comfort ye my dear Briggs, God is also very good at the Suddenly. Our Lady of Guadalupe turned things around suddenly. The Consecration of Russia will do the same! As for how bad things need to get until the few remaining cowards amongst the Catholic hierarchy finally decide to suddenly act is another story. If only they could muster the same zeal to get people to repent and convert as they encourage to vote, we’d be in a different place!
But being the democracy idiots that they are, they’d rather sit back on their hands and wait for the next Papal election where they hope a Pope Trump I will somehow emerge on the balcony, even as Antipope Francis I fortifies the College of Cardinals with his heretical friends. But I pray they all die suddenly from their next vexxine booster, so there is always hope!
As further evidence that the Holy Spirit is certainly not leading anyone at the Synod of synods, is the fact that Vatican Inc. is following the same strategy of it’s secular media corporations of attempting to appeal to the youth through the medium of Japanese Anime since they are losing audiences after DIE-ing their own entertainment brands. Whatever spirit is haunting the snore-nod didn’t factor in, or likely deliberately intended that, cute lityle ol’ stang-carrying Greta Luce-fer there would be adapted into anime porn, easily created now by AI, into all manner of obscenely hilariously debauched smut imagery that I hope will be tweeted and shared by many to x.com/Synod_va
Hagan Hentai Lio!
But it’s not too late! The synod can still suddenly do all that “listening to the youth” and transition their mascot from this Toki-Doki thing to Hellsing’s Fr. Alexander Anderson!
“But a lot of growth in smaller denominations is from people fleeing the collapse of the larger ones.”
Isn’t that a good thing? It does not take long before any organization composed of humans cares more for its continued existence than it does for its ostensible purpose. And, yes, covering up for pedophile priests counts. You see the drift in mission in all denominations, though possibly a bit less in Eastern Orthodox.
The real source of hope is from His own lips — Where two or three are gathered in My name, there I am in the midst of them.
I found this fascinating:
Acta Pilate (Letter of Pilate to Caesar about Jesus, His Crucifixion & Resurrection) – ARCHKO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQUJGceTH9I
Religions and denominations have always failed mankind because they go the way of men instead of the way of Jesus. Please consider the ministry given to Saul/Paul by the glorified Jesus in Acts 9 and taught by Paul in Romans through Philemon.
Peter Kreeft said once, “God equals being, equals existence, equals actuality, equals activity, equals relationship, equals love.” There’s a stat model/equation for you.
And he also said, “We sinned for no reason but an incomprehensible lack of love, and He saved us for no reason but an incomprehensible excess of love.” Might that answer the why question?
There are signs and wonders today that the Holy Spirit is still at work. Don’t give up the ship, yet. The One Holy Apostolic Church may be faltering, but His words are eternal. “Heaven and earth will pass away, but my words will not pass away.” Matthew 24:35.
I believe you are conflating church attendance with religious belief here – attendance can go to near zero as the church’s community and educational roles diminish without any necessary effect on either faith or morality.
Come come, Briggs, you fossil doomsayer — not all churches are declining. I understand the Church of Satan, for one, is growing by leaps and bounds.
From the writing above, way , way , above: “There have been bleak times and revivals and Awakenings, and only a fool would say they are impossible. Still, it seems to me Suddenly looms. Transcendence is like the helium in a balloon from a birthday party from last week. The End of Suddenly does not mean there are or will be none left in the Church in the West, but that it ceases to be any important cultural force.”
This is not suddenly. Do read THE FINAL CONCLAVE by Malachi Martin …. none of this is sudden … it is just more visible than prior to Vatican II.
God bless, C-Marie
To C-Marie–This conundrum may have to do with the definition of “sudden”. To me Vatican II was the “sudden” cause for Protestantizing the Catholic Church. Now, 60 years later our Catholic Church has become essentially Protestant. Non-Protestant Catholics (Traditional Catholic) have become a small minority–effectively underground, persecuted and ostracized Church.
My church is packed. And at Saturday Vigils too. Most young families have at least 4 children.
Maybe you just hang out with old people too much?
Despair is a sin.
Johnno please read the Apostle Paul’s writings in the Bible. He had nothing to do with Peter’s ministry.
“That may be the greatest question ever asked, and the answer might be “God”. But we can’t say “We don’t know why, therefore it’s God”. That’s not logic. That’s just making stuff up.”
No, there’s a lot of logic there. The only answer atheists give for why anything exists is an infinite regress. Otherwise, it’s popping into existence. Infinite regression is nonsense and still begs the question of why anything.
Without a cause for the popping, it is nonsense, too, so there must be a cause for existence. There must be an entity with the power and intelligence to create coherence. That is irrefutable logic. Any other answer that fails to explain coherence just says I don’t like this answer.
By then analyzing what this entity must be, we can deduce its characteristics. Logic guides us to the most probable explanation. There will never be a QED or ‘slam dunk’ explanation for this entity or its characteristics. This is a fundamental truth that we must accept, or else any existence by other entities created by this first entity will be devoid of meaning. If existence were as many people wish it to be-perfect-we would be mere automatons, and any action would be meaningless, as just explained. There must always be doubt.
Doubt, often overlooked in discussions of essential elements for a meaningful existence, is in fact a crucial component. Many assume that the creator of our existence is lacking in certain aspects and are eager to ‘help’ this entity. However, we must consider the possibility that this creation is indeed the ‘Best of All Possible Worlds,’ and we should seek the reasons for its perfection.
You sure about that good buddy? Paul makes an awful lot of references to this thing called the “Church” which like Christ needs to be “one body” and there’s an awful lot of Peter being up there prominently above the lot of that there unity whim Paul directly refers to as Cephas after the name Christ gave him. And they seem to hang out a lot, including that one time he cirrected Peter and Peter praised and acknowledgec Paul’s writings. Paul has an awful lot of letters being shared amongst all the same people. Why, it is almost as if there is unity amongst them or something…
Not a whole lot of independent “ministries” being run by individual America church corporations.
But hey, feel free to follow that horny Luther guy who said Christ was a serial adulterer and that we should just sin as much as we want because grace is amazing like that.
Paul calls the church, the body of christ, in 1Corinthians Chapter 12. Galatians 2:9 has James Peter and John affirming Paul’s ministry to the heathen. Of course, this is where all of the deluded denominations start squealing against dispensationalism. The are plenty of independent Dispensation of Grace, Body of Christ, type of churches around. Quantity doesn’t mean quality and following Jesus is not a popularity contest. I found my church when I couldn’t stomach the mental gymnastics required to mix dispensations into one ministry trying to rationalize the supposed contradictions. I follow Paul, who leads the ministry given and revealed by Jesus.
Honestly, as the most religious atheist you would ever meet, I find JerryR’s suppositions, his sages, his philosophers, and his magi to be the stuff of children.
Truly, arrogant kiddies like you, little one, cannot actually answer any real questions, supply blueprints nor mechanics, and most of all, cannot surmise function.
You do not realize, even, what you are reading, much less how or why you use it as you do. Life? Death? Morality? Pain? Good, or Evil? Race? The gods, or a God? Creation, and the “beginnings” and “ends” of the Universe? The Why of Existence? What lays beyond death?
These are simple, and simply understood, yet you can explain none of them in any quantifiable detail, confused as you are by the most terrible mistake ever made: monotheism. Even in that, you know nothing of its origins, nor how they play into the larger picture that confronts us.
Enough hand-waving. A nightmare too horrible to contemplate grows upon us; the Christians have had their time, and done much good, but it is no longer enough.
Just as there are powers above your God, powers that created your God, your blindness leaves you vulnerable to another God which, unknowingly, you serve.
Heaven is not the problem; your ignorance of what it is, where it is, how it works, most importantly, the Why- why is there a ‘Heaven’? What is its function?- these matter little to you, though your faith helps in this function, although you can supply no answers to these questions.
What people want, is answers. Real answers that satisfy more than a child’s need to be comforted. More than semantic tricks and clever sleights. Such answers exist, as we were made to find them. It is essential that we do so.
What is needed, is armor, and weapons. You are throwing darts in the dark.
Hell is the problem- you know naught of it either- and Hell is coming.
Enough of the foolish certainty of your simple ignorance. We need more, and have it at hand. It was there long before your Christianity. We must remember what we knew before your kind, lest the soul of the world is murdered, and the very gates of Heaven closed. Hell cannot stop itself; it is for this task that we, and you, were made.
There has always been “the church system of man” within the Catholic Church.
Do read Matthew 24: 4-8
” 4 And Jesus answering, said to them: Take heed that no man seduce you:
5 For many will come in my name saying, I am Christ: and they will seduce many. 6 And you shall hear of wars and rumours of wars. See that ye be not troubled. For these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. 7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; and there shall be pestilences, and famines, and earthquakes in places: 8 Now all these are the beginnings of sorrows.”
And, 1 Peter 1: 3-9 “Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, who according to his great mercy hath regenerated us unto a lively hope, by the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead: 4 Unto an inheritance, incorruptible, and undefiled and that cannot fade, reserved in heaven for you, 5 Who, by the power of God, are kept by faith unto salvation, ready to be revealed in the last time. 6 Wherein you shalt greatly rejoice, if now you must be for a little time made sorrowful in divers temptations: 7 That the trial of your faith (much more precious than gold which is tried by the fire) may be found unto praise and glory and honour at the appearing of Jesus Christ. 8 Whom having not seen, you love: in whom also now though you see him not, you believe and, believing, shall rejoice with joy unspeakable and glorified; 9 Receiving the end of your faith, even the salvation of your souls.”
All of this was and is given to those willing to believe God our Father and our Lord Jesus Christ and the Holy Spirit:
And, 1 Peter 1: 19-21 You were redeemed:
” 19 But with the precious blood of Christ, as of a lamb unspotted and undefiled 20 Foreknown indeed before the foundation of the world, but manifested in the last times for you: 21 Who through him are faithful in God who raised Him (Jesus Christ) up from the dead and hath given Him (Jesus Christ) glory, that your faith and hope might be in God.”
So, for the atheists and more …. here are the proofs and reasons to receive Jesus Christ as your Lord and Saviour and God
God bless. C-Marie