Coincidence: What Do George Washington & Three Red Banners Have To Do With Each Other?

Two coincidences today, which I believe fall into our two classes. Though, of course, as you will see by the end, my classifications can be disputed. Recall what the classes are: a hidden meta-cause, the occult force driving sets of curious identified events, and “mere coincidences”, where there is no higher cause touching the events.

Now all this seems a might seem odd, but it’s all in service to a larger, a much larger, point: that it is we who bring cause to probability, and not the other way around. We do not get cause from probability. It is a small thing when thinking about coincidences, but it is the same and becomes much more important when discussing science.

Here is our first coincidence, from Anon:

This is not an unpopular coincidence, as these sources convey: A, B, C. The coincidence, which is the three red stripes mimicking the three red banners, has been fit into the hidden-cause category by supposing the same entity or entities are behind the inclusion of the three stripes in the logos for prominent far left political candidates. The entities’ motives are also given: to usher in yet another communist utopia.

Before we analyze that, let’s introduce our second coincidence which is also related, in its way, to federal elections. This is from Geoffrey Regan’s Military Anecdotes (2002; Carlton Books).

251 THE GENERAL’S NOT FOR BURNING…

On a summer evening in 1776, British and German troops had erected a huge bonfire on which they had decided to burn in effigy four of the most prominent American leaders: John Witherspoon and Generals George Washington, Israel Putnam and Charles Lee. As the dummies were thrown into the flames a sudden storm broke over the proceedings and sent everyone scampering for cover. After the downpour had abated, the soldiers returned to their bonfire to find that three of the dummies had been thoroughly burned, but that of Washington had miraculously survived. The superstitious soldiers, particularly the Hessians, were greatly affected by the inexplicable event and began to wonder whether the American leader had powers beyond those of mortal men.

Regan is otherwise good citing sources for his anecdotes, but he neglects to list one here. There are other references to the burning, but more on this in a moment.

What we’re always trying to do with any coincidence is to see if it can fit into a definable sequence or whether it can join other events, common or unusual, with which it can be contrasted. In other words, we ask “How unusual is that?” This brings us to the realm of probability.

Those who have been following the Class remember its key, and really only, lesson: all probability is conditional on the assumption, information or evidence you assume is true. Change the evidence, change the probability.

Let’s first examine the evidence of the three banners.

Scott Walker, a Republican, and not particularly far left, used this and similar logos in 2016.

This was Republican John Kasich’s in 2016:

Republican Ben Carson, surely no communist, when he ran in that year:

Ted Cruz ran then, too. He had three stripes, but only two red ones:

I won’t bother to show you, but Republican Bobby Jindal had a three-red-stripe J. See all these and more here.

On the other hand, searching in Chinese for three red banners gives images like this:

Three red banners, all right. But no stripes are there. The slogans read “Long live the People’s Commune”, “Long live the Great Leap Forward” and “Long live the general line of the party”. Which are not oft heard in leftist politics here.

Now a key lesson (coming not this coming Monday but the one after) in probability is that any event has to be completely, and I mean in all aspects, rigorously defined into a sequence, because there is no unique “sequence” into which any event can be embedded. Hence there can be no probability of any event. There are almost always many sequences. We have to pick the sequence, which is part of the evidence we assume.

The evidence I assume for the three red banners is that because the American flag has red stripes, and if you’re trying to show those stripes in an abstract, cartoon, or representative manner in a tight space, then three red stripes would not be unusual. Especially in elections where at least lip service is given to patriotism and waving flags. Those this the letter E in their names have it easier than the others, and make a natural target.

Because of this “sequence”, finding logos with three red stripes would not be in the least unusual, assuming there is no meta-cause behind the images, directing their usage to further extreme leftist beliefs. Thus, I assume these logos fall into the mere coincidence category. (I can also assign no numerical value to the probability.)

You may, however, have different evidence you assume.

Now to Washington. It turns out the effigy burning attempt was well attested.

I take a version of the story from DIARY OF THE AMERICAN REVOLUTION by Frank Moore (1860, pp 277-278) .

A straggler from Howe’s army, who said he was pressed into the King’s service (not at all uncommon in the Eighteenth Century), happened to witness the burning:

He also says, that just before the thunder-storm we had week before last, the troops on Staten Island were preparing figures of Generals Washington, Lee, and Putnam, and Doctor Witherspoon, for burning Washington in Effigy in the night, but were prevented from finishing them by the great rain. The figures had all been erected on a pile of fagots, the generals facing the doctor, and he represented in the act of reading to them a late address. All of them, except General Washington, had been tarred and prepared for the feathers, when the storm came on and obliged the troops to find shelter. In the evening, when the storm was over, a large body of the soldiers gathered around the figures, which, being prepared, were set on fire, amidst the most terrible imprecations against the rebels. One of the party, seeing that Generals Putnam and Lee, and Doctor Witherspoon burnt furiously and were almost consumed, while General Washington was still standing, with the tar burning off, ran away frightened, and was soon followed by most of his companions. The next morning, the figure was found as good as it ever was; a fact which caused a good deal of fear among the Hessian troops, most of whom are very superstitious, and it was not until after some of the officers told them the cause of its not burning, that they appeared contented. The reason was, that having no tar upon it before the rain commenced, it became saturated with water, and the tar only would burn.

This was given and cited as a “Letter from Nathan Craig to Lemuel Clift:—In the Postscript of Gaine’s Mercury, of October 21, is the following:—’Some time ago, General Washington and several other rebel worthies were burnt at the stake on Staten Island, by a party of the foreign troops.'”

Here is a much simpler event than stripes appearing in logos, but not too simple, neither. There is more room here, it seems to me, for a meta-cause coincidence. I do not claim it. I say it has the possibility, because the evidence I assume is that there had to be a reason the Washington effigy was not tarred in time, like the others. That it didn’t burn when soaked is plain enough. But the rains came just in time to prevent the tarring.

Not as spectacular when put this way, but it’s not nothing.

I also add to this the many other stories of Washington, for instance like the time the time he charged into battle and came away with a coat ridden by bullet holes, himself wholly untouched. (This may sound not unfamiliar.) These stories pile up, and put Washington as a Great Man of History.

Point is, as always, coincidences, which is to say probability, is rarely clear and wholly unambigiuous. And that it is we who bring cause to the probabilities.

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