So a 184-foot yacht named Bayesian sank while anchored in a freak windstorm off Sicily. Its billionaire owner now sleeps with the fishes. The name of the boat naturally brings it to our attention.
Firstly for the opportunity for rich black humor. Somebody on line, commenting on the headline announcing the bizarre sinking, said something like “I wonder what his prior for this was.” But I said, and you should learn this lesson well, that it was the posterior that always matters.
Well. That’s one joke. In the Too Soon category, no doubt. There are others.
What makes the story even more interesting, and why we are bothering to bother about it, is that the dead billionaire was one Mike Lynch, who had just won the last of his trials over accusations he had over-valued his AI properties. This source has the details. Lynch, a Brit, had to be extradited to the USA for his criminal trial.
The AI software (Autonomy) was sold to HP. The software supposedly had a way to conduct surveillance over live streams (like in video games), among other places. AI, as I have reminded us many times, is only a model, and all models only say what they are told to say. Which means we do not have to fear models taking over the world. But we do have to worry, as I have also said many times, about increasing surveillance. Did we not, for example, just read that “nearly everybody’s” social security number was just “stolen”?
Anyway, ignoring the precise details of his criminal trial, Lynch beat the rap.
Now what makes all this fascinating to us is the following coincidence. Lynch was set free a few weeks ago. And then died on 19 August. Lynch had a co-defendant, one Stephen Chamberlin, who ran the finances of Autonomy. This Chamberlin was not on the yacht. But he was on the side of the road in England, jogging, where he was runned over by a car, and kilt dead. On 17 August.
At the time of this killing, Chamberlin was running a surveillance-cyber-security company called Darktrace. Ian Carrol (owner of a magnificent moustache) brings us the details in a short video.
All but one of the crew survived the sinking, as did Lynch’s wife and most of his guests. Source:
Those reported missing are British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah; Morgan Stanley International Chair Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, charity trustee Judy Bloomer; and Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife, jewelry designer Neda Morvillo.
This dual-death is our coincidence. Recall there are two meanings of coincidence (blog/Substack): where there is or is not a meta-cause behind the events. In the Was-Not category, the two deaths, Lynch’s and Chamberlin’s, had nothing to do with one another, a “mere” coincidence. In the Was category, the two deaths share a meta-cause, somebody or some bodies were responsible for killing Lynch and Chamberlin, for reasons known best to him or them.
The reason it is a coincidence of interest is the unusual nature of the deaths, their closeness in time, and the importance of the characters and what they were up to. But notice we only become interested in coincidences like this one after they occur, and not before. This should put the prior (to continue the joke) heavily on the Was-Not category for any coincidence to consider.
Somebody posted a purported video of the storm (another shot), and if this is it, it looked particularly nasty. Boats can sink at anchor as well as at sea. A fellow on Twitter said (make of this what you will):
Talked to my kid (NavArch/Marine Engineer) last night about this. Told me depending on the keel type-likely retractable and at anchor with hatches open a blow down on the beams highly likely. Those “sailing” yachts have very high center of gravity. Not self righting w/keel up.
Now it’s easy to suppose our most loving Regime (Brit or American) can despatch a car to dispatch a man. Such things must be fairly common at this level of society. Think of what they can do to undersea pipelines. Taking out one small man is nothing.
But how could this supposed meta-cause have worked the storm trick? That meta-cause had to be responsible for it. Carrol of the moustache gave a wink to HAARP. This is the high-frequency active auroral research program. It aims a handful of antennas at the sky to probe and examine the ionosphere and thermosphere. Some claim HAARP has the power to change the weather.
I am friends with the guy who ran HAARP at one time (he has moved onto greater things), and have some experience with radio myself (and have done work in space weather forecasting). I don’t want to disappoint my more imaginative readers, but HAARP cannot change the weather. And, even if it could, it cannot from Alaska create a waterspout with such intense pinpoint accuracy in the Mediterranean as to be able, with certainty, to kill a floating target.
But, maybe I’m a dupe—or I’m in on it. Or maybe there’s another way Yours Truly doesn’t know about that can make custom killer storms. It has to be something if this is a meta-cause coincidence. I brought this up with The Conspiritore, the infamous person known to be able to create a conspiracy out of anything. The Conspiritore, reluctantly accepting my knowledge of HAARP, said that the storm itself may have been in the mere-coincidence category, but that the entities seeking Lynch’s death made quick use of it. They were already on his trail, they saw the storm coming, and so also saw their chance. Conspiritore also suggested that Lynch himself, and his onboard pal, might have used the storm as an opportunity for escape, thinking they were on the same death list as Chamberline.
Well, maybe. But also maybe it shows how easy it is to tell a story after-the-fact. That’s the difficulty in coincidences. There is rarely conclusive proof one way or the other. So where we go is often where we want to go.
And if you think it’s only one side of the spectrum that does this, gander at this Reuters propaganda headline, “Global warming may be factor in deadly Italian shipwreck, climatologist says“.Good money says that same climatologist would claim bad driving also increases because of global warming.
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Maybe someone asked the demons to do it.
Creating fake conspiracy’s over time dilutes real conspiracy’s. People’s eyes glaze over and the subconscious
message is ‘they’re all fake’. This works especially well for the incurious who are always in the majority and easy
to manipulate.
It’s never too soon to joke. The day the Challenger blew up I was in high school, either that day or the next day the big joke was:
“What does NASA stand for?
Need another sever astronauts”
Consider when brake lines are cut and someone is killed. Did the man who cut the brakes create the hill the car crashed on? No he just cut the lines knowing that sometime, some place, the car would hit a hill eventually.
Could be an unfortunate coincidence, could be someone ‘cut the brake line’ and waited for the hill.
Incitadus, just to let you know, the plural of conspiracy is conspiracies, not conspiracy’s.
No question bad driving increases the risk of climate change. Everything does.
Since the world’s climate (whatever that is and however we measure it) encompasses the whole world…and the whole world includes us, and everything we do, then everything we do touches the world which touches the climate. Bad driving increases climate change, but so does good driving. The fact that people (pesky, nuisancy people) are always doing something (even when doing nothing), that something is something which wouldn’t have occurred if people weren’t here: thus we find an impact upon Climate (which is everything) that wouldn’t have occurred.
And actually, given that climates had to be changing before we even showed-up…NOT having nuisancy people running about ALSO drives climate change.
Climate change is a natural phenomenon which phenomenon is affected by the minutest to the greatest of actions and stalemates occurring in creation, whether of nature or of humankind, all affecting God’s order for good, and when without oversight for good, can cause death and destruction.
God bless, C-Marie
It’s suspicious that the dead person in the sinking happened to be the person of interest.
Obviously the Nordstream Pipeline wasn’t really blown, that makes no sense at all. All we saw were a few generic videos and photos. The Nordstream Pipeline was taken out of service. It will go back into service after expensive “repairs” at some point in the future when, in fact, it’s simply turned on again. Infrastructure like that is simply to valuable to the globalists. A few bridges that are at end of life are neither here nor there but multi-billion dollar pipelines are what wars are fought over and are not casualties of war (pay more attention to cause and effect).
I don’t dispute people are fighting and dying in Ukraine but the whole setup is deeply fake and gay (even without Zelensky supposedly in charge) and even less believable than the so-called Cold War.
Interesting. A billionaire probability guy. A Bayesian yacht. Cryptohomicidal conspiratorial complications. A guy could write a blockbuster detective/mystery/thriller novel about it. Briggs, you’re the right man to write it. With your book sales filthy billions you buy the racing yacht Certitude and take up a life of swashbuckling statistical piracy on Lake Michigan. If an egghead like Lynch can do it so can Briggs. So many possibilities. You just need a bigger model of your coin flipping gadget and you’ll be master of the Probabilities.
Iwas told she was moored. But ok anchored 100+ ft boat. What you need to do – cut the anchor, may be two. And she sunk.
Marisa… my mind is going just hit auto correct and moved on.
Hagfish,
I already have the eyepatch.
Cheese. Swiss cheese. You know, the cheese with holes in it.
You didn’t mention Swiss cheese, where when those ‘holes’ line up from several slices placed side by side an accident occurs … called “The Swiss Cheese Model” of accident causation – a model used in risk analysis and risk management, including aviation safety, engineering, healthcare, emergency service organizations, et cetera. “It likens human systems to multiple slices of Swiss cheese, which has randomly placed and sized holes in each slice, stacked side by side, in which the risk of a threat becoming a reality is mitigated by the differing layers and types of defenses which are “layered” behind each other. Therefore, in theory, lapses and weaknesses in one defense do not allow a risk to materialize (e.g. a hole in each slice in the stack aligning with holes in all other slices), since other defenses also exist (e.g. other slices of cheese), to prevent a single point of failure.”