Serf’s Up! — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Haven’t said much lately. Been little to say. Simply time to watch. Watch the Emperor’s men, watch Vlad. Decisions approach as the rain ends, the ground freezes and the ballots fly. Nope, not a typo. Here’s what I mean.

I sent some friends links to two articles last night (here and here) . Both articles made sharp judgments that bear scrutiny. The first gives an etymological look at certain words, showing they can have two diametrically opposed meanings. It then morphs into an analysis of the Ukrainian theatre. The point (for me) was that even when people use the same word, there can be opposite intent. Oft-times deliberate. If you don’t understand Russian Maskirovka, you may be what’s for dinner.

For example, just because Vlad has executed an operational pause doesn’t mean he will automatically unleash a massive offensive before Christmas. Or ever. He’s so much more patient (and smarter) than that.

The real question is this; does he have to? No, he doesn’t. Everything militarily is working fine now, thanks. Vlad’s in no hurry. The troika’s harnessed. The three horses (kinetic, economic and ecclesial) need to pull in sync. The economic is now apace with the kinetic. The ecclesial is also up to speed. So, no hurry, there’s time. Christmas time. For Vlad, that is.

The second linked article is a little more problematic. The author is brilliant, but he misses something right in front of him. He says that we are witnessing the dissolution of nation-states. Where ‘legitimate’ power has flown out of the hands of the nations, subsumed by international powers using ‘non-state’ actors. These powers use chaos and upheaval as weapons to shape the battlefield of tomorrow. The result? A new feudalism, causing the most basic human reaction; self-defense. Why? Because the nation is no longer able (or willing?) to defend its own.

He says most European powers are incapable of sustained kinetic action (except against its own citizens). Even France, with its ‘best-of-the-bunch’ military, has only a seven-day supply of ammo. Forget how many cannons you have. How many shells have you actually got? No Western nation has the industrial bedrock capable of meeting an existential need in time to slay the bear in the front yard, today.

The author foresees a breakdown of nation-states that cannot confront (let alone defeat) a modern military threat. Conventional arms alone can now reduce a nation to ashes, from a great distance away. Thus, the need for personal self-defense. I agree with this, so far.

But the Western political base needed to immediately stop an aggressor is also missing. For a long, long list of divisive reasons. The author posits that nation-states without the human will and the industrial means of providing for a defense must therefore crumble. Their place is being taken by the international powers (call them whatever you want). Those powers have no interest in defending anyone but themselves.

Thus, the need for self-defense. Each man must defend his own family and turf. He will need to ally himself to a local lord who has some level of kinetic/economic power. In other words, each man will revert to the status of a serf. And I agree with this too, in the short term. But only in the West.

After all, much of the Global South never ceased being serfs. Serfdom will only come as a shock to the West, where there is no memory of this. And no preparation against it.

But the author quits before he should. He fails to see that this breakdown of the ‘failed-state’ is not inevitable everywhere. It will only happen where there is a divided polity and an emaciated (manufacturing-based) economy. The exception to that is Russia.

Russia has never been denuded of her war-power industrial base. And Vlad, by his cautious and methodical approach to the West’s proxy-provocation has assiduously built a political basis amongst his people. Russians, by a very large margin, now view the Western-Ukrainian provocation as something existential in nature. The will and the industrial means to resist it are both firmly in place.

Syria should be instructive to us. Russian will-power and arms successfully stopped the Western attempt to bring down this ancient nation-state. Syria is the object lesson this author can’t seem to see. The Global South can see what it means to have Russia as an ally. Germany can’t.

The West cannot resist the forces it unleashed upon itself. And it cannot overcome the single nation-state that refuses to succumb. The coming result seems clear to me. Russia will be the new Lord of The West.

And we will be the serfs.

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