On the earlier poll thread, a reader asked “What’s your opinion about the statistical summary of past results of Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries?” pointing out data from Neatorama.com. The Neatorama blogger had tables like these below, but made separate tables for Iowa and New Hampshire and included information about who won the general election. I thought it would tell a better story by combining the primaries and by eliminating the general election data because the main question is who will be nominated.
The tables list who won each of the primaries and who was eventually nominated. So, does winning the first two primaries help? Certainly.
Democrats
| Year | Won Iowa | Won NH | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1976 | “Uncommitted” | Jimmy Carter | Jimmy Carter |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter | Jimmy Carter | Jimmy Carter |
| 1984 | Walter Mondale | Gary Hart | Walter Mondale |
| 1988 | Dick Gephart | Michael Dukakis | Michael Dukakis |
| 1992 | Tom Harkin | Paul Tsongas | Bill Clinton |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton* | Bill Clinton* | Bill Clinton* |
| 2000 | Al Gore | Al Gore | Al Gore |
| 2004 | John Kerry | John Kerry | John Kerry |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | ? | ? |
*Ran Unopposed
Republicans
| Year | Won Iowa | Won NH | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1976 | Gerald Ford | Gerald Ford | Gerald Ford |
| 1980 | George H.W. Bush | Ronald Reagan | Ronald Reagan |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan* | Ronald Reagan* | Ronald Reagan* |
| 1988 | Bob Dole | George H.W. Bush | George H.W. Bush |
| 1992 | George H.W. Bush* | George H.W. Bush* | George H.W. Bush* |
| 1996 | Bob Dole | Pat Buchanan | Bob Dole |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | John McCain | George W. Bush |
| 2004 | George W. Bush* | George W. Bush* | George W. Bush* |
| 2008 | Mike Huckabee | ? | ? |
*Ran Unopposed
Combining data from both parties, there were 4 candidates who won both Iowa and NH, and in each of those 4 cases those candidates went on to receive the nomination. Of course, it is not guaranteed that winning both will secure the nomination, but it does make it very likely. This ignores those candidates who ran unopposed, as, obviously, their elections were never in doubt.
Candidates who won at least one of Iowa or NH won 11 out of 12 times, or 92% of the time. Only one time did a candidate not win at least one primary but still went on to win the nomination; that was Bill Clinton in 1992.
This implies the obvious: that by this coming Tuesday, we’ll be nearly sure who the top two candidates are for each party, and if either Obama or Huckabee wins New Hampshire, it’ll be a safe bet that they’ll also win the nomination.
You could separate out the data for each party, but there is no great reason to do so statistically.? The results also are conditional on the past “political situation”, which is largely unquantifiable.? If we assume that today’s politics are not different than those from 1976 until present, then the results are useful.? But if they have somehow changed—e.g. Guliani’s strategy of ignoring Iowa and NH—then these results are far less helpful.
The candidate for change is definitely HILLARY
*Under Clinton rule many died of Arkincide.
*Marines in Whitehouse had to change to civvies.
*Al Gore had to change offices – Hillary wanted that one.
*Classified Military Weapon Informatin given to the Enemy.
*Presidential Title once glorified, now Impeached
*FBI files changed hands to go to HILLARY
*Whitehouse decorum changed to ‘throwing lamps’
*Christmas Tree changed to Porn Tree,compliments Hillary
*ILLEGAL MONIES from enemy given to Pres & Mrs. Prez
*Whitehouse guest list changed to list Enemies of State
*1st bombing of Towers, bombing of our embassies,
attack on U.S.S. ship etc. etc. change from retaliation
to: “..pretend it didn’t happen..go on with presidency..”
There were many many more changes under Bill and Hillary
but as a normal American wife and mom I have to get
Sunday dinner ready..
God Bless our wonderful country!