Statistics

# Researchers Who Built Model To Say Vex Saved A Million Lives Announce Vex Saved A Million Lives

This is a slow day, with most off the internet, as is right and proper. So I will leave us with this repetition: All models, good or bad, inexpert or Expert, ephemeral or computerized, only say what they are told to say.

This is not a bug, but a feature. Parroting their instructions is what models are supposed to do. Think: if a model about, say, blood flow in yaks suddenly decided to spout facts about interarrival times of patrons in the Library of Alexandria, you’d be right to suspect something has gone awry.

Models are sets of instructions that are like this: “If X, then Y”. That’s it. It is then no surprise if the model is fed X and Y pops out. Of course “If X then Y”: that’s in the code! Even if the path from X to Y is long and complex, so complex it is perhaps beyond the ability of the programmer to see the path.

All this means is it that is always absurd if modelers or propagandists announce, “IF X THEN Y!” as if a discovery has been made. As if Science has come upon some new thing.

Enter the JAMA article “US COVID-19 Vaccination Efforts May Have Prevented More than 1 Million Deaths, 10 Million Hospitalizations“, sent in by alert reader Stephen Shipman.

The key paragraph is this:

To estimate the effects of the vaccine program, the researchers used a computer model to analyze features of the coronavirus (of variants that emerged before the Omicron variant, including the highly infectious Delta variant), its transmission, and its effects, accounting for factors such as waning immunity and changes in population behavior over time as travel increased and schools and businesses reopened. They then compared the trajectory of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring between December 12, 2020, and November 30, 2021, with those estimated under a scenario without the vaccine rollout.

All that is “If X then Y”, and nothing more.

What is the purpose of saying “computer model” instead of just “model”? In part because it sounds cooler to say the model was done on a computer, and computers are good at calculations, therefore, they want you to falsely imply, the calculations here are necessarily correct.

Of because, perhaps, of the hope it will be implied the computer has done a little thinking on its own, beyond that which happened in the modelers’ heads.

Which is, of course, impossible. An abacus doesn’t think: turning its beads into bits and plugging it in doesn’t turn the mechanics into thought. It merely makes the sliding happening faster than the eye can follow.

Anyway, nothing has been discovered here. The model was told to say the vaccine would say Y lives under condition X, it was run under condition X and said Y lives were saved.

None of this is any help at all in discovering whether the vaccine did in fact, or did in falsity, save Y lives. That’s a much harder problem, one that is even impossible, at this point, to know with any certainty.

If a guy is vexxed then gets covid and recovers, was it the vex that let him live? Or was it the weakness of the bug? Or the strength in his own body? How can you know?

If a guy is vexxed, gets covid, and dies, was it covid that killed him? Would he have lived if he didn’t get the vex, which weakened his immune system?

If a guy is not-vexxed and gets covid and lives or dies, same question.

If a guy is not-vexxed and doesn’t get covid and lives, well, we seem to have a clear cut case. Only he might have got covid and never knew it, which happened often.

The vex was rushed into use, then pushed with a fervor greater than Amway. Careful, long term testing, that would allow us to give decent answers to these questions, was never done. It’s been nothing but panic lathered with gross over-certainty since the beginning.

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Categories: Statistics

### 24 replies »

1. Mercury (its a play on my initials) says:

aaah the computer model – I failed a unit in my MBA because the input parameters in the model were corrupted. When discovered we were all given a “conceded pass”. That’s why I cringe every time someone says “the model says”.

2. Michael Dowd says:

How does one keep him/herself from total cynicism concerning the State and the state of the Church? We could use a little direction on this dilemma.

3. Phil R says:

Your enemies are at it again,

“Of because, perhaps,” should be “Or because, perhaps,”.

4. PhilH says:

“if a model about, say, blood flow in yaks suddenly decided to spout facts about interarrival times of patrons in the Library of Alexandria, you’d be right to suspect something has gone awry.”

But it would be really cool though.

5. Ye Olde Statistician says:

What if the model is a supermodel and is modeling a really kool clothing line on the NYC Fashion Week runway?

6. Hagfish Bagpipe says:

But Briggs, top-selling v’axe salesman Donald Trump says the v’axe saved a million billion trillion, and never harmed one hair on anyone, anywhere, and he should know, because sooper-dooper computer models sez so, see? Sure, that might sound stoopid, but that’s just because it’s The Science mixed with 46-D underwater chess by Grand Master Q casting wizard spells through space-time, I mean, real big-brain, top-drawer, first-water, mega-giga-biga-shlomo-homo-noodle-foamo-presto-change-o-rope-a-dope. That’s what we’re dealing with here.

HB
Yea I’ve always harbored reservations about Trump, he may be the greatest deep
fake that ever lived. Look at how the news was manipulated around all of the faux
scandals, Russia investigations, impeachments, etc. burying news stories of any
relevance or substance. That’s been the news model for years but it seemed to
take on another level of shrillness under twitter-man.. His greatest accomplishment
may have been to allow the left to brand anything on the right as fascist. He entered
the fray with with all the attendant media attention and repetition cycles to ensure
victory which may be the biggest tell of all. I voted for him twice but may go back my
baseline of not voting which allows me complain. It’s not an election it’s a selection.

It’s 4D chess alright first this: Dr. Fauci Predicted a Pandemic Under Trump in 2017
and Trump follows up with the lockdowns, riots of 2020, and vaccine after having
failed to drain the swamp much less lock anyone up. The centerpiece of the exercise
being the vaccines themselves with attendant resistance, coercion, illegal mandates,
passport schemes, and digital currency to follow. Add to the tension CRT, and the
globo-homo rhetoric which started under Obama but flourished under Trump
and you’ve got cultural destabilization at a level once thought impossible. The
only thing left to feckless Biden is a war somewhere…anywhere.

8. awildgoose says:

I’m still waiting on all the data that proves the injections, “prevent severe symptoms leading to hospitalization.”

I’m sure we’ll see that before we see the Lightbringer’s real birth records.

9. Jeff says:

at least with honest climatologists (like Cliff Mass out of the University of Washington) you can assume they’re testing their models against real outcomes and then modifying their models each time. So short term weather forecasts keep getting more and more accurate each year. Long term forecasts have way more inputs and take longer to validate and refine. So Cliff Mass is honest about the state of global climate models. And for his honesty he’s a pariah.

I know of no such corresponding honestly in the covid modelling world. Maybe it exists. But I haven’t seen any such honesty yet.

10. Rudolph Harrier says:

The model used to justify the lockdowns in MN predicted, in the absolutely best case scenario, that there would be at least 12,903 deaths in MN after a year. This was in a scenario with massive testing with better accuracy than the real tests, and where everyone who tested positive isolated and did not infect anyone else. Obviously that didn’t happen.

The actual number of attributed deaths nearly two years out is 10,516. So the model is disproven about as much as any model can be.

Yet you will still sometimes hear people say “if we had done nothing, 80,000 people could have died in the first year!” using the same model. (Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they made alternate models to retroactively claim even higher “lives saved.” The original model predicted that in the “unmitigated” case about half of those who would die would die in the first month, after which point deaths would drop dramatically due to most vulnerable population already being dead and the spread of natural immunity in the population. Since it is no longer acceptable to mention natural immunity, nor is it acceptable to say that much of the population is not at high risk, the projected deaths for the counterfactual “unmitigated” case could be made far higher.)

11. Diva says:

Dear Briggs! I love your website! I meant to comment at your Christmas posting to thank you for everything. Because of you I found Ianto Watt – the first article I read was about the Fatima prophecies, then I purchased his The Barbarian Bible (must reading for everyone!) Then you introduced me to Wolfgang Smith – what can one say? I have read five of his books now. I am so grateful for you!
I also want to say how much I love my Briggs ‘family’ of commentors – I love everyone of you (even the trolls – as St. Paul says we are all parts of the body of Christ and we all know that some body parts while necessary are unmentionable). I always read every comment after the articles. Hagfish! You had me laughing out loud with your “The Science mixed with 46-D …” etc., to the end of that sentence! Happy New Year to all!

12. philemon says:

Year in Review (YIR): https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/-coffee-and-covid-friday-december-7d4

Eric1 hr ago: (Liked by Jeff Childers)

I don’t know how to possibly add to this (YIR), but I’ll try:

Just give us 2 weeks to slow the spread.

2 years later; now on deck, Load of Crap Variant #3

Lockdowns will work

Lockdowns will help

Let’s try it again just to be sure

We need more toilet paper

Where the hell is all the toilet paper!

Wear gloves.

Don’t wear gloves.

Wear a mask while you’re standing

Surgical masks are only useful in the operating room

Use hand sanitizer frequently

Using hand sanitizer doesn’t work

Stay 6 ft. apart

Stay 10 ft. apart

Stay 12 ft. apart

Stay 3 ft. apart

We must protect the children

Plexi-glass should do it

Well, that was dumb

Walk single file in retail stores

Also dumb

We will never force people to get vaccinated.

We are mandating that everyone get vaccinated

My body my choice

An apple a day keeps the doctor away

A doctor a day keeps the apple away

Get vaccinated and things will go back to normal

Get vaccinated wear a mask, stay 6 ft away from each other, limit travel and produce a vaccine card if you want to continue to enjoy your McNuggets

Aaron Rodgers

The vaccine is 97% effective

The vaccine is no longer 97% effective

We’re unsure of how effective the vaccine is

The vaccine will prevent you from getting covid

The vaccine will not prevent you from getting covid

The vaccine will prevent you from spreading covid

The vaccine will not prevent you from spreading covid

The vaccine will reduce the severity of covid

The vaccine may or may not reduce the severity of covid

The vaccine only works if everyone takes it

If everyone takes the vaccine they’ll be no one left to do yard work

The vaccine will do your yard work

The vaccine is completely safe

Vaccine injuries and deaths are within acceptable limits

You won’t need any boosters

You’ll need one more booster

You won’t need a 2nd booster

You will need a 2nd booster

You’ll need a 3rd booster

You’ll need a 4th booster

You’ll need more boosters²

Natural immunity is baloney

We’re still investigating natural immunity

The CDC is baloney

MSM is baloney

Brandon is baloney²

There’s a lot of baloney out there

Stop eating baloney

Ivermectin is dangerous

Ivermectin is for horses

Ivermectin must be put out to pasture

Boosters will prevent you from getting sick

Boosters won’t prevent you from getting sick

The vaccinated do not need to be tested regularly

The vaccinated have the same risk as the unvaccinated

The vaccinated are doing the right thing

Aaron Rodgers

Regular testing is not the answer

The testing works

The testing is not always accurate

False positives are low

False positives are higher than expected

False positives are off the freaking charts

Quarantine for 14 days

Quarantine for 12 days

Quarantine for 7 days

Quarantine for 5 days (NFL in jeopardy)

Quarantine for 16 minutes

Our patients needs come first

We will fire every doctor and nurse who does not comply

I love beagles

It wasn’t me, it was the sand fleas

“I am the science.” (Uh, oh)

Bill Gates is good

Bill Gates should have watched Bob Ross

Bob Ross would say that Bill Gates is a “crappy little accident”

Omicron is like a cold

The unvaccinated are making everyone sick

The unvaccinated are going to die this winter

The vaccinated are going to die this summer

We’re all going to die

Only some of us are going to die

We have no idea who’s going to die

Happy New Year!

13. Johnno says:

The tides are a-turnin’ and many vexxed cruise passengers are very very upset and suspicious, and inflation is overflowing, and they really really need you to keep taking those boosters until late 2024 because “voting,” so gub’mint needs some PR to look good. That’s the real story here. They saved you! Be grateful and keep complying and please don’t try us for crimes against humanity because they really had to drop those atomic bombs to save lives and end a war whose terms of surrender were already being negotiated.

14. philemon says:
15. Milton Hathaway says:

Since we are playing the what-if game, I just modeled this scenario:

No mandatory lock-downs except for nursing homes, no mandatory social distancing, no mandatory masks, no mandatory shutdowns, no Covid relief payments, no blanket liability immunity for new pharmaceuticals.

The output of this model, of course, was an omicron-ish variant appearing far sooner, far fewer excess deaths, continued low inflation, continued full employment, Trump still in the White House, and the pandemic fading fast from our memory.

The modeling algorithm is available on request, but I think you can guess what it is.

16. philemon says:

Johnno: “…and please don’t try us for crimes against humanity because they really had to drop those atomic bombs to save lives and end a war whose terms of surrender were already being negotiated.”

Yeah, and let’s not mention those POW camps getting bombed as well. Or the Nagasaki Christian community.

Truman considered Japanese women and children completely expendable if it would intimidate the Russians.

It’s not like the Japanese hadn’t been looking for terms since 1944. It’s also clear that the reason Japan surrendered was because the Russians declared war as promised at Potsdam and had overrun Manchuria, had captured the Kurils and were preparing to invade Hokkaido. Japan had been hoping the Russians would mediate in a negotiated surrender with America, as America had mediated in the Russo-Japanese war of 1905.

Just sayin’.

The atomic bombings were Truman’s political decision against senior military objections.

Of course, if Roosevelt had listened to Nimitz instead of Dugout Doug McArthur, the Pacific war could really have been concluded in 1944.

17. philemon says:

“Since we are playing the what-if game, I just modeled this scenario:

“No mandatory lock-downs except for nursing homes, no mandatory social distancing, no mandatory masks, no mandatory shutdowns, no Covid relief payments, no blanket liability immunity for new pharmaceuticals.

“The output of this model, of course, was an omicron-ish variant appearing far sooner, far fewer excess deaths, continued low inflation, continued full employment, Trump still in the White House, and the pandemic fading fast from our memory.

“The modeling algorithm is available on request, but I think you can guess what it is.”

My model is even simpler. What did the Amish do that we did not?

18. philemon says:

And just to be perfectly clear: “I profess, in the sincerity of my heart, that I have not the least personal interest in endeavoring to promote this necessary work, having no other motive than the public good of my country, by advancing our trade, providing for infants, relieving the poor, and giving some pleasure to the rich. I have no children, by which I can propose to get a single penny; the youngest being nine years old, and my wife past childbearing. “

19. Tom Welsh says:

On occasions such as this, I like to quote Charles Babbage, designer and creator of the first automatic digital computer:

‘On two occasions I have been asked, ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?’ I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question’.

– Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher, 1862

20. Joseph Moffa says:

Has everyone heard that the CDC is dropping Kary’s PCR amplification process for detecting the COVID?
So now what do we do with all the phony data that has been extracted for over a year?
I know Kary Mullis is turning over in his grave because he tried to tell us all that his process should not be use to determine disease and such.
Anthony Fauci and the WHO and whoever else pushed this senario should be wearing orange and put in the same cell as Jeffery Epstein.

21. Johnno says:
22. Hagfish Bagpipe says: