Statistics

We’re Almost Always Right; They’re Almost Always Wrong; Yet They’re Always Believed — Coronadoom Update CXI

I PAT MY BACK

Before we begin our main update, allow me to congratulate myself.

A screenshot of the picture, in case it disappears, is here.

I have said it a hundred times, or more, that all models only say what they are told to say. Here is a formal paper on the subject; and here is an instructional video.

If a model is told to say “Lockdowns work” it will—it must—conclude lockdowns work.

But this model is not independent evidence or proof lockdowns work. “Lockdowns work” was an assumption. It remains an assumption. Replace lockdowns with whatever solutions you like. Same thing.

At least we have an Expert admitting these simple, and indeed indisputable, facts. If you saw yesterday the definition of an Expert and expertocracy, you will understand.

Long-time readers will also know that I have warned about trumpeting “cases”, that “cases” are not cases, that “cases” are fake & gay, that nobody should talk about “cases” because “cases” only generates needless fear. For instance:

Oh my! “Cases”! What about something that really matters?

“Cases” are fake and gay. Here is the final proof, for which I will also accept congratulations.

It took these brilliances two years to figure out what we figured immediately, and they’re doing it for purely political reasons because they want to declare success, but better late than never.

Wait. I changed my mind. Here is final proof “cases” are fake and gay.

‘Silent’ COVID twice as prevalent as feared: 4 in 10 patients have no symptoms, study warns.

Not only does this prove “cases” are fake and gay, this is direct confirmation Experts and rulers are mewling effeminate cowardly simpering jelly-livered shaking nitwits.

CRACKING DOWN

I loathe despise and abominate propagandists.

This is being written Monday evening, before they wheel Biden out Tuesday to announce more “solutions” to our routine pandemic (which, as a pandemic per se, has been over for some time).

The word is penalties will be coming to “unvaccinated Americans.”

I don’t know what these punishments for failure to obey will be, but my guess is vaccine slave badges for travel. Show your papers or no airplanes or trains. “Your paperz are not in order.” But these punishments would not start until after New Years. Which would instantly disprove the “science” behind them, because if they work, they should be used immediately.

And they don’t work. However, we have two year’s experience showing observational evidence does not matter (incidentally, this is why falsification is a silly philosophy). Rulers ignore all but their desire for power.

We saw the ladies on an Appeals court reinstated the OSHA power grab, so now it goes to SCOTUS, which is filled with progs, woke, the cucked, and two based justices. Two is not enough.

The Court has surprised us before, so there is still hope. Still time for you to pray.

MAIN UPDATE

I have been warning us since late summer that, as always happens, deaths would begin creeping up in fall, peaking in January. As always. I warned us to get ready for it, as our arrogant masters and Experts, loath to admit error, would mandate, yet again, all their “solutions” that failed before.

They, on the other hand, assured us, often and loudly and with force, their “solutions”, including the vex, would be 100% effective.

Here is a basic science question. If made to choose between two rival models, one that predicts Reality fairly well but with occasional error, and the other which is almost always wrong, which model should you pick?

Right: the one that guarantees you the best living. Which is the model of Experts and rulers.

For never forget that the likelihood of a model being correct is only one component in the decision calculus. The other is the gain and cost of the choice itself.

It’s true the Reality-based model predicts Reality better. But that doesn’t make it the best choice, not when your livelihood depends on agreeing with the regime. Just as fear of being called a “racist” hamstrings Republicans, fear of being a “denier” hampers Experts. Going against the “Consensus” can be a career-destroying event.

A reader reminded me of this Consensus event (from the Wiki article on the Appeal to Authority Fallacy):

[L]eading American zoologist Theophilus Painter [in 1923] declared, based on poor data and conflicting observations he had made, that humans had 24 pairs of chromosomes. From the 1920s until 1956, scientists propagated this “fact” based on Painter’s authority, despite subsequent counts totaling the correct number of 23. Even textbooks with photos showing 23 pairs incorrectly declared the number to be 24 based on the authority of the then-consensus of 24 pairs.

Simple math shows this error held sway for over three decades. In the modern era. That, my dear readers, is a long time.

This is, of course, one example of a legion of such blunders—a list of which is in a separate chapter of Everything You Believe Is Wrong. All made by our intellectual betters.

Now the odd thing about history is that most believe extreme events only occur in history, and never in their own times. This is strange because the list of Consensus events is large and important. I mean, the list is about important matters in science. And there must be many more smaller events mostly unremarked on because of their relative unimportance.

The only possible rational conclusion is that these events, massive Expert blunders, must continue to happen.

One is happening now.

MORE VERIFIED PREDICTIONS

Speaking of verified predictions, remember when conspiracy theorists were dismissed as conspiracy theorists for this?

This, too, is, as long-time readers know, one in an endless line of conspiracy theories come true, each the vindication of conspiracy theorist predictions.

I emphasize conspiracy theorists because the words together clearly do not mean what each means independently and taken in series. Instead, the term can only have a working definition of regime-despised Realist.

How’s this headline grab you? “Health officials to weigh limits on J&J vaccine as deadly blood clots continue“.

Remember this picture we did about two weeks back?

VAERS data shows adults taking J&J were reported as dying much earlier than the other vexxines. I’ll count the CDC’s actions as another verification. The data also showed kids taking Pfizer were recorded as dying more often. Pfizer is experimenting with the kiddies even now, upping their dosages.

Shouldn’t vexxine companies worry about these deaths? Nah.

You already know that you, dear non-refugee citizen, have no value to rulers.

Steve Kirsch has something like James Randi’s old challenge, which fits here: “Who wants to be a millionaire?“. Examples “I will bet anyone $1M that the CDC lying to everyone about number of deaths” and “$1M research grant if you think Mathew Crawford made a math error that would change the result”.

If you are one of the woke who are sure of vexxine utopia and so on, prove it and make your million.

CULT OF THE MASK

Two major airline CEOs question the need for masks on planes

Both [CEOs] Kelly and Parker, who each have announced plans to retire as CEOs in the coming months, mentioned that high-grade HEPA air filters on planes capture virtually all airborne contamination and air quality is helped by how frequently cabin air is exchanged with fresh air from outside the cabin.

On the way out, they can speak the truth.

This follows a major propaganda organ piece “The CDC’s Flawed Case for Wearing Masks in School“. This is most curious, because it admits the Experts at the CDC were wrong about masks. It will be interesting to see what happens to the author.

PUNISH THE DISOBEDIENT

‘Hardcore Vaccine Refuseniks’ May Need To Be ‘Deradicalized’ Like ‘Terrorists’ And ‘Punished’

A “deradicalisation” programme like those given to former terrorists or cult members might be the only way to dissuade some hardcore antivaxxers from their beliefs, according to one psychology expert…

Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, chair in cognitive psychology at the University of Bristol, was keen to stress that many of those are likely to be “marginalised” people who are “very difficult to reach for anything”, and for whom access is likely to be the biggest issue rather than psychological or ideological factors.

But for a small section of “hardcore refuseniks”, he said, it may be difficult to reach them by conventional means because their beliefs are so ingrained….

Another measure would be introducing a vaccine mandate, which he said “will disgruntle a few people” but “can be effective”.

This Lewandowsky is ignorant of the stats, epidemiology, and medicine, but, like we saw yesterday, take Experts in the fields at their word. Therefore—do read yesterday’s post—the people who disagree with Experts are flawed in some way. They must be taken in hand and made to believe Expert “truth.”

The Expert Lewandowsky joins the Experts at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (a hilarious word here, because it means a one-way communication). They too wonder how people can disagree with Experts, and have concluded these deniers must be a security threat.

THE NUMBERS

They are now pushing “super immunity“, which is, they say, conferred after one has the bug while vexxed and recovered.

This is partly propaganda in acknowledging that nearly everybody (except naturally immune) will get the bug eventually, but married to the propaganda that the vex protects against infection. The two beliefs are mutually incompatible, but incompatibility with logic or Reality, as we have seen, means nothing.

Buy my new book and own your enemies: Everything You Believe Is Wrong.

This has gone on far too long, so only a few numbers this week, all good news.

First—-drumroll—-the glorious Return Of Flu!

The drop off at the very end is late reporting. But the bump is there and real.

I offer no causal explanations for this, but it must be good news, because it signals a return, in a way, to the old normal. Another signal is this, the weekly attributed coronadoom deaths.

Ignoring the late-count drop off, yes, deaths are indeed going up. But only by a very little.

We expected the rise to be stronger, but while there was a bump up from the end of November, that was all it was, a bump. Daily December attributed deaths are like the were in October.

Yes, they may, and likely even will, rise again, but that they haven’t risen by now to where we expected is good news.

The Panic Index is decreasing:

Recall that ideally the Panic Index would be 1, but anything under, say, 5 to 10 is good. We’re just above it. This means people aren’t panicking as they have before.

Now the Worry Index: it too is decreasing, or at least holding steady:

Ideally, this is 0. We see the flattening after the Ominous Omicron announcement, but it isn’t really going up either.

All these numbers, especially the return of flu, have to bring some cheer. At just the right time of year.

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Categories: Statistics

34 replies »

  1. “This Lewandowsky is ignorant of the stats, epidemiology, and medicine….”

    Surely is!

    Sort of surprised you didn’t add a parenthetical identification of this Expert Lewandowsky. He’s better than an Expert. He’s a Meta-Expert. A consensus defender defending the consensus of consensus builders. Guardian and propagator of the 97% nugget of consensus.

    He’s the Meta-Expert on “conspiratorial ideation” among “climate deniers.”

    Who’d have ever guessed that he’d end up Experting on the bad cold going around?

    Here’s his 2016 meta-hagiographic ode to consensus and those who consensus-ize fake scientific opinion.

    “Consensus on consensus: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
    John Cook, Naomi Oreskes, Peter T. Doran, William R.L. Anderegg, Bart Verheggen, Ed W. Maibach, J. Stuart Carlton, Stephan Lewandowsky, Andrew G. Skuce, Sarah A. Green, Dana Nuccitelli, Peter Jacobs, Mark Richardson, Bärbel Winkler, Rob Painting, Ken Rice

    “The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper.”

    From

  2. Kent

    LouAnnDowskyhas been on Briggs’ radar since March 2012

    “The psychologist Lewandowsky is concerned that many are not as concerned about climate change […]”

    Briggs has seven posts now with Lou Ann figured in

  3. “‘Silent’ COVID twice as prevalent as feared: 4 in 10 patients have no symptoms, study warns.”

    If someone is infected with a disease with no symptoms, how do they know when they are cured? A clunky test that has a 50% false positive/false negative rate?

  4. Regarding the recent, startling announcement from a SAGE official, I worked inside the Beltway for almost 20 years as a wonk. The running joke was always, “The decisions have been made, the analyses and studies will follow.” This wasn’t just tongue-and-cheek. Everyone knew that their livelihoods depended on its verity.

    Unfortunately, I can’t post a graphic here but just out of curiosity I’ve been plotting Wikipedia’s Deaths due to COVID since the beginning of the pandemic. This, as many know, is derived from their “Recent Deaths” section which lists the deaths of notable people. There is qualitative agreement between my plot and the CDCs weekly deaths due to COVID which you show above. In other words, to get such a plot doesn’t require very precise record keeping beyond what a media outlet provides. This begs the question related to the topic as to what is driving what? Is “science” driving the news or is the news driving “the science.”

  5. As the great Michael Crichton once observed, “ if it’s consensus it’s not science, and if it’s science it’s not consensus” i assume most of you checking in here have read “Aliens Cause Global Warming”, but if not : http://www.sepp.org/NewSEPP/GW-Aliens-Crichton.htm

    Also, as someone smarter and funnier than me pointed out, “conspiracy theory” really just means “spoiler alert”

  6. Great update, Briggs. So while The Great and Terrible Oz! rages and threatens, terrorizing the unwitting, we carry on in calm, peace and good humor, for the little dog has pulled back the curtain to reveal the ridiculous little men — who would be as gods! — furiously working the levers of their tawdry illusion to ever diminishing effect. May the evil spell finally be broken, Lord, and let thy justice be done.

  7. “We’re almost always right; They’re Almost Always Wrong; Yet They’re Always Believed.” Well, sin darkens the intellect.

  8. –>‘Silent’ COVID twice as prevalent as feared: 4 in 10 patients have no symptoms, study warns.

    Isn’t this true of most pathogens? In some microscopic level (parts per million, parts per billion, etc.), pathogenic detection can be made, observed. Meanwhile, infection would depend on load. Its mere presence isn’t a sign of disease or infection.

    E.g., all kinds of toxins–in minute quantities are present in out bodies, in our food, in the water we drink, in the air we breath–yet masses of people don’t die in the streets because it’s the dose that’s the poison, not its mere presence.

    What am I missing…

  9. Thankyou Mr Briggs the consensus is in among the sane thanks to the data over the last two years, its time to move on….maybe its time to look at the cholesterol war and the science on statins.

    Happy winter/summer solstice!

  10. Watching your YouTube video…

    Mr. Briggs, you sound astonishingly just like Ray Romano…

    You could be his *voice double*…

  11. Do these shots work at all? Do they prevent anything? I’m at home sick (probably not Covid, although who knows? I took a test and it came up negative, but it sounds like omicron) and had some extra time, so I tried to look up raw numbers of vaccinated people who have died of Covid. All I could find was graphs of deaths by 1/100,000 (by vaccination status) and total deaths by age. But as most people in higher age groups have been vaxxed, and people 65 and over seem to be dying in by far the highest numbers… as they have all along… I don’t see any difference other than seasonal fluctuations. Two people I know who had the vaxes (but no booster) and an unvaxed family member just got it. All about the same symptoms, though one of the vaxed was a teen and the other two were about the same age. Another vaxxed person I know in her late 60s or early 70s had it, was pretty sick even though she got monoclonal antibody treatment. Does it make a difference? I figured from the first only the oldest and sickest would be offered it (and those who worked or lived with them) and then we’d see the long-term effects. As I am healthy and not 60, I figured I might get one if they turned out to be effective after 3 years or so of experience. Now I don’t think they will say how effective the shots are, even if they’re studying that–which they don’t seem to be.

  12. It’s hard not to be cynical when flu cases are inversely proportional to the efficiency of the vexx.

  13. Quick Note: For Those Of You Who Were STUPID

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=244572

    Here is the thing, though, just because you thought getting vexxinated was the right thing to do at the time, as new information comes in, you can change your mind.

    Your civil rights are still there. It doesn’t matter if you just got your religion this morning, it is still your right to refuse further injections.

    An employer has no basis for denying your religious exemption. They can only refuse an accommodation, at their risk.

  14. Incitatus: ”Not to mention what’s next once the variants run out of steam.”

    Start a war with Russia. Or China. Or both.

  15. Ugh. Lewandowsky again.

    I might have known. That guy’s been working for the Ministry of Truth since he was a lad.

  16. Why are people getting tested in the first place? Even a true negative could be easily negated the next day by picking up the virus at the store, or…..
    God bless, C-Marie

  17. Hopefully the Russian ultimatum against NATO’s merry expansionism will panic the rulers enough to drop the covidian charade and consider that Putin really will stick some really big and really fast intercontinental needles right up their ass.

  18. Speaking of Russia… Russia is also on boaed with covidism and marks of the vexx although rolling this out is delayed due to the Russian people being hesitant to both the controls and the vexxines.

    Some articles of interest:

    The bigshots behind Russia’s vaccine have deep ties to the World Economic Forum
    https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/sputnik-v-its-what-klaus-schwab-craves

    Based Russian people.

    Russia’s QR code regime is collapsing

    It was never about public health and Russians know it

    Resistance to QR codes in Russia has taken on many forms, including boycotts and beating up ID inspectors. It is what it is.
    The Russian government is still planning to push through a deeply unpopular nationwide QR code law—but making such legislation a reality could be a tall order.

    In some regions where QR codes are already in place, authorities have hastily abandoned enforcement efforts.

    Fed-up Russians are boycotting, bypassing, and beating people up.

    On November 22, Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, became the first city in Russia to require QR codes for public transportation. The new rule led to absolute chaos: buses were being delayed by twenty minutes or more as conductors struggled to check QR codes—and there were numerous reports of angry passengers starting brawls.

    It appears that Kazan basically… gave up. QR codes are still required to use public transport, but the rule is not enforced in any meaningful way.

    70% of passengers were not complying with mask rules. The takeaway? Maybe this is not such a good policy…

    The most dangerous job in Russia?
    One of the problems with enforcing QR codes in Russia is that you can get stabbed for doing it. On paper it sounds like a major growth industry, but is it really worth the lousy pay and the constant beatings?

    For example, at the end of November a mall cop in Kazan was wounded in the arm with a knife after he asked a man for his QR code.

    In some parts of Russia, violent opposition to QR codes appears to have played a key role in dropping the regime altogether.

    St. Petersburg restauranteur Alexander Konovalov owns dozens of businesses. He announced last month that he would not be complying with the city’s QR code rules:

    “The introduction of QR codes, the assignment of numbers, as in a concentration camp, is fascism. I have more than 200 establishments (among them bars, hookah bars, bakeries, beauty salons), in all my establishments they will not ask for a QR code. From time to time they come to us with checks, but we simply do not pay attention to it. Let them come.”

    (Konovalov shared his “QR code” on his Instagram page, which reads: “F**k you.”)

    Notably, he claimed he has yet to be fined for disobeying the “public health” measure.

    As we’ve mentioned before, the Russian government will probably need to simulate a fake alien invasion in order to spook people into accepting a digital ausweis. In the meantime, Russians will continue to use QR codes taken from washing machines to gain access to their local shopping centers.

    It’s Russia.

    https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/russias-qr-code-regime-is-collapsing

    Rospotrebnadzor specialists have identified cases where… residents of the Rostov region enter shopping centers and railway stations using QR codes taken from an iron, washing machine or chicken, the head of the regional department of the department Yevgeny Kovalev told reporters.

    We are blessed to live among such heroes.

    Meanwhile, State Duma deputies don’t need to show QR codes when entering the parliament building because “a special database” allegedly keeps track of how many antibodies each lawmaker has. That’s what the government claims, at least:

    It’s such a hilarious charade—and everyone knows it. Thankfully there is a new scary variant that has struck fear into the heart of every Russian.

    No one cares about Omicron

    Everyone knows they are trying to keep the scam going in order to inject the kids. It’s just obvious.

    Here’s the thing: Russia really does offer the best chance at Resistance. A very clear majority of the country does not care at all about COVID—they are more worried about economic collapse. A recent poll found 61% of citizens cite the rise in prices as the main cause of anxiety—well ahead of concerns about poverty (36%), corruption (33%), rising unemployment (33%) and COVID (32%).

    Like, this new Omicron stuff is just pure desperation. Russians are not buying it. They barely paid attention to the double-deadly Delta strain. It’s telling that Russia’s Bill Gates-linked lady has taken a lead role in trying to drum up fear about this new variant—probably this means that only the most hardened Schwab-worshipping fanatics can utter the word “Omicron” without dying inside.

    We’re slowly witnessing a very serious narrative collapse. Can we start talking about what this means, for Russia, please?

    https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/russias-covid-cultists-in-full-retreat

    No wonder Our Lady of Fatima wants the Russian people on board! Too bad the Church hirelings are so invested in their modernist Vatican II experimental failure to obey Christ’s request for the Consecration of Russia.

    Meanwhile Russia’s own political ruling class are just as “expert” as our experts! All they do now is call the unvexxed Russians names from the safety of controlled Russian media.

  19. Amazingly, in my daily Amazon “Book Recommendations” “Based On Your Reading” email I just got a recommendation for “Everything You Believe Is Wrong”! Of course, that may just be because I already _have_ my copy (from Amazon) – they do frequently recommend to me books I’ve already bought from them – but, maybe not! Maybe others are getting this recommendation too!

  20. Was at a long visit at a boomer aged relative for the holidays. He insisted on having the news on in the background. Twenty minutes out of a half hour of reporting were devoted to the topic of vaccinations.

    Like usual there were some bits of truth sprinkled in here and there (such as that the Omicron variant “probably” is less deadly than other variants) but each and every time it was immediately followed up by a command to get vaccinated and get boosted.

    This sort of repetition works on most people. The panic will only end when the news is stopped from continuing it.

  21. So flu numbers are rising this fall/winter season? Of course everyone (well, every thinking person) knows that last year’s flu was metamorphosed into cases of COVID. So why the rise now in flu numbers? Is it some latent desire to return to honesty in reporting? No, too late for that! Maybe the reason is that when more and more of the COVIDiots who took the jab begin to die of the aftereffects, the PICs (“Psychopaths In Control”) will say, “We saved you from COVID, but too bad you died of the flu. Maybe time to roll out our new, improved flu vaccine. Everyone queue up!”

    Bait and switch, bait and switch, rinse and repeat, over and over — or at least until enough suckers are dead.

  22. Gates is cancelling his holiday vacation I hear! What is Santa bringing??? Or should that be spelt, Satan?

    Anyway… someone followed the money…

    On Wednesday @RMConservativehad Dr. Paul Marik on his podcast to talk about Dr. Marik’s lawsuit against his employer, Sentara Healthcare. Basically, Sentara has told Dr. Marik that he is no longer permitted to treat patients With the MATH+ Protocol that he (along with hundreds of other doctors) has adopted to treat hospitalized COVID patients. In the course of the interview Dr. Marik mentioned that none of the cheaper drugs in his protocol came with a “bonus” so they weren’t appealing to the hospital. Naturally, this “bonus” caught my attention. Why would any COVID treatment be accompanied with a bonus? Sounds pretty unethical, right? So I asked Uncle Google and sure enough, I come across an article saying that hospitals can receive an extra 20% bonus for using remdesivir to treat COVID patients. Now I know that a 10 day cycle of remdesivir costs $3000 so I wasn’t too impressed with that $600 bonus. Not saying $600 is nothing, but it’s certainly not anything I’d be willing to go to court over. But then I kept reading. Here’s where it gets good…

    Last November, when everyone was totally distracted with the election, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) updated its interim final rule with request for comments (IFC) and added a little noticed incentive for hospitals to treat with remdesivir Hospitals that provide proof of a positive PCR COVID test, who treat with 1 of the 2 drugs that have received EUA from the FDA for inpatient treatment of COVID, not only receive the 20% “new technology” bonus, they also qualify for a whole new system of billing.

    Normally under Medicaid, hospitals are required to eat the first $30,000 in charges and then Medicaid picks up 80% of everything over that. So if a hospital billed $100,000 Medicaid would pay 80% of $70,000 or $56,000.

    But after last November’s IFC, if a patient is Covid positive and is treated with remdesivir, Medicaid will cover 65% of that first $30,000. Which means that $56,000 reimbursement on the 100k bill is now a $75,500 reimbursement.

    So that $600 bonus, is actually a $20,000 bonus. Per patient. Just so long as they’re treated with remdesivir. Starting to make sense now?

    I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why these hospitals were denying dying patients the chance to try something that might work or taking their doctors to court to stop effective treatments. But in the end, it’s all about money. We’ve always known that.

    https://www.barnhardt.biz/2021/12/23/huge-black-letter-law-massively-financially-incentivizing-hospitals-to-poison-and-kill-covid-patients-found-save-and-share-aggressively/

    Patients, trust your doctors.
    Doctors, trust your administrators.
    Administrators, trust your government.
    Government, trust your experts.
    Experts, trust your financers.
    Or else!

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