Statistics

Absolute Vs. Relative Risk Reduction; Trump Likes Vaccines; The Fabulous Fauci; Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam Getting Theirs; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXIII

WE CONTINUE

The consensus—and we never buck consensii; consensuses?—was to keep these updates going for the time being, but expanding their scope.

I have therefore cut back on some of the old plots and added others from around the word.

The biological crisis is over in the USA, and has been for some time. The mental and political crisis, the panic and various forms of insanity, are sadly still with us.

PASS THIS ON: HURRY, HURRY

Trump in an interview over the weekend said, “I’m a big fan of the vaccine”.

This is great news. Tell every lefty, progressive, woke friend (well, acquaintance) you have that Trump likes the vaccine. That he wants people to be vaccinated. Hurry!

Especially since the EEOC said employers are free to require the vex from employees.

There was an enormous freedom rally in England last week, after which, coincidentally, the government backed down on vaccine passports.

Plus, the side effects are racking up. What we don’t know is their rate.

WHAT DID I TELL YOU ABOUT PROBABILITY?

Many people sent me this Lancet note about the difference between relative and absolute risk reduction. I’ve warned us many times to use absolute numbers (in any situation, not just this), because relative numbers always exaggerate (unless one is keenly aware of the absolutes).

Here’s an example. Suppose the conditional (on certain accepted evidence) risk of getting a dread disease is 0.001, or 0.1%. A drug or vexxine is developed and it is discovered (in update evidence) the risk of getting the disease is now 0.0001, or 0.01%.

The absolute risk reduction (ARR; conditional on the given evidence) is 0.001 – 0.0001 = 0.0009, or 0.09%.

The relative risk is a ratio of the two risks, and the risk reduction ratio is 1 minus this, or 1 – 0.0001/0.001 = 0.9, or 90%.

That relative 90% reduction (RRR) sounds much more marketable than the actual 0.09% reduction; indeed, it sounds 1,000 times better!

Here from the the Lancet piece are some numbers using published results, recalling, as the authors do, that everything is conditional on the evidence, which is always changing.

Vaccine RRR ARR
Pfizer 95% 0.84%
Moderna 94% 1.2%
Gamaleya 91% 0.93%
Johnson & Johnson 67% 1.2%
AstraZeneca 67% 1.3%

The authors rightly say “ARR (and NNV) are sensitive to background risk—the higher the risk, the higher the effectiveness—as exemplified by the analyses of the J&J’s vaccine on centrally confirmed cases compared with all cases: both the numerator and denominator change, RRR does not change (66–67%),” but the ARR does change.

The inverse is also true. The lower the risk, as say herd immunity approaches, the more the reductions drop. In children, the risk itself was already low, and falling. Which means it will become difficult to practically impossible to know if the vexxine works in kids.

For instance, the CDC says only 300 kids 0-17 died with or of coronadoom (a terrific argument kids don’t need to be vexxed). Population of this age group is about 65 million. We don’t know how many infected or exposed or this group, but you can see that differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated kids would be very small.

Incidentally, you can reverse the equations too. Suppose you estimate your* IFR is 1% (you’re old, maybe). And you believe the AZ vex will reduce your risk by 67%. What is the ARR? Easy:

RRR = 2/3 = 1 – RR = 1 – risk_vex/risk_novex

2/3 = 1 – risk_vex/ 0.01

1/3 * 0.01 = 0.0033 = risk_vex

Thus you go from 1% to 0.333%, for an ARR of 0.66%. Sound as exciting?

*Nobody has an IFR, just as nobody has a probability of dying from the doom. All rates and probabilities are conditional on the evidence you use. For you, if you insist, if you get the doom, either you die or you don’t, and your IFR is 1 or 0.

FABULOUS FAUCI

Senator Rand cross-examined Fauci, and discovered Fauci indeed funded gain-of-lethality experiments responsible for creation of the coronadoom. Rand said: “There was gain of [lehtality] research going on with this Dr. Shi Zhengli at the Wuhan institute. In her paper, she actually thanks Dr. Fauci and the NIAID, which is a part of NIH that Dr. Fauci runs, it’s listed at the end of the paper.”

Alas, Rand is not woke, which is all the reason our rulers and media need to ignore him.

The panic was always about politics, which is proved by the story of the Fabulous Fauci, who gained his fame by being anti-Trump at a time the left was desperately afraid, not of death, but of Trump’s reelection.

The Science was always, and was always going to be, whatever Trump was against. The nation’s scientists and doctors largely went along with this, afraid if they told the truth what would happen to them.

Fauci flip-flopped more than a docked perch, but it never mattered. He was yet another cudgel to wield against Trump. Fauci is also, as all evidence indicates, a narcissist.

Remember when—we have shown the video often—Fauci said truthfully masks didn’t work? Too bad it became known Trump knew this. Masks became a political symbol, a way to virtue signal and prove you were afraid. Remember how the Lancet was scammed by that anti-HCQ paper?

After Trump promoted the idea, Fauci repeatedly rubbished the use of the common, cheap-to-produce drug hydroxychloroquine as a therapeutic or prophylactic for COVID-19. A second fact: Studies conducted in North America of hydroxychloroquine’s effectiveness in treating COVID are 3.4 times more likely to report negative results than studies of the same conducted anywhere else in the world. There is no obvious causal connection. But would you want your lab’s name in the hot glaring sun embarrassing America’s doctor? Or would you want it under that fat federal cloud that rains buckets of money on you and your peers?

Remember all those gay worship videos, Tic Tocs and the like, praising Fauci? His infamous gay opening pitch was straighter than his advice.

Fauci was partly responsible for the creation of the coronadoom, and largely responsible for the panic.

“My theory is that Anthony Fauci is a sociopath,” says [“Harvard-trained economist”] Navarro. “He knew full well that virus came from the lab. He knew full well that he was the one who reauthorized gain-of-function. And day after day, for nine months leading up to the election, he did not level with the American people.”

He still isn’t. He won’t. Because he tells the media and our rulers what they want to hear.

GLOBAL TOUR

Is it worth pointing out we had the 1957 Asian Flu and the Hong Kong flu a decade later that, the CDC says, killed up to four million people each worldwide, all without panic? With no lockdowns and with no mask mandates? And when the population was much lower

Nah, nobody remembers.

Island nations, like Japan and Taiwan, that did a good job keeping infected people from entering their countries by strictly controlling their borders, and therefore keeping the coronadoom from spreading, at last have fallen.

The story of Taiwan is amusing. If reports are right, a pilot leaving an early quarantine found comfort in the arms of a prostitute in Taipei’s red-light district, and she passed that comfort on to many, and they, in turn, passed it on to others. That country is now having its turn with the doom, though it doesn’t appear particularly bad.

Masks compliance was high before they started their “soft lockdowns”, so we have more evidence masks are useless. It won’t stop governments from mandating them, because governments are desperate to been seen as “doing something”—none of them want to be blamed for deaths caused natural spreads, and the populations in many lands are now effeminate—and what better than a publicly visible symbol like masks.

This isn’t just my opinion, but that of “IM”, a writer at Substack, who typed out “Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media“. I steal this picture from him:

This is a week old, and the number of “cases” (positive tests) is went higher and is now dropping. We’ve seen these anti-masks plots a hundred times, and this writer has several more, for Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, and so on. All of these places are now getting it. Even with high mask usage.

Meh. We can study it, because it’s always good to know, but why whine about it? Our rulers and scientists are now immune to Reality, having been inoculated at college.

In looking up masks in Taiwan, I discovered one guy jogging wearing a mask passed out from lack of O2. The government recommends weight training indoors alone instead. Hiliarious.

Japan’s spread is less well explained, even with 98% mask compliance, but it’s a much bigger country which many more entry points.

Up and now coming back down. Same kind of picture in Malaysia, Vietnam and so forth. Don’t forget Japan’s population is 126 million.

It was at one point hoped the genetics of East Asians, or perhaps earlier experiences of similar viruses, might have bought them some measure of natural immunity. It was not to be.

The lesson is these bugs just take time to spread around. We’re not quite as global one world as we thought.

Vaccines haven’t been shipped to Asian countries as quickly, they not having had need of them until now, so as that gears up we’ll see some good old fashioned panic and useless lockdowns.

Meanwhile in England:

TESTING DRAMA

This is from the New York Times, so you know it’s true. (I loathe how news stories have to begin with these mini-life stories. I wish they’d get right to the point.)

Dr. Brooke Herndon, an internist at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, could not stop coughing. For two weeks starting in mid-April last year, she coughed, seemingly nonstop, followed by another week when she coughed sporadically, annoying, she said, everyone who worked with her.

Before long, Dr. Kathryn Kirkland, an infectious disease specialist at Dartmouth, had a chilling thought: Could she be seeing the start of…[an] epidemic?…

Nearly 1,000 health care workers at the hospital in Lebanon, N.H., were given a preliminary test and furloughed from work until their results were in; 142 people, including Dr. Herndon, were told they appeared to have the disease; and thousands were given…a vaccine for protection. Hospital beds were taken out of commission, including some in intensive care.

You know the rest. But in case you don’t, here it is:

Then, about eight months later, health care workers were dumbfounded to receive an e-mail message from the hospital administration informing them that the whole thing was a false alarm…it appears the health care workers probably were afflicted with ordinary respiratory diseases like the common cold.

Now, as they look back on the episode, epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists say the problem was that they placed too much faith in a quick and highly sensitive molecular test that led them astray.

Ho ho, what fun! They thought it was whooping cough, had a best test with swarms of false positives, panicked, realized their error, and then calmed down. And forgot–utterly—about such things.

The story is from 2007.

BOOK

The Price of Panic.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: CDC State data (source), CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Causes of death (source). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

All these numbers are old: we don’t have this week’s because of Memorial Day.

Daily tests (not shown; see here from Johns Hopkins) are finally below a million a day. Panic won’t be over until this sinks to same level as flu.

CDC deaths “involving” COVID.

Even with the late numbers, it’s still dropping. Even the media is now forced to admit it.

The week-of-the-year all-cause deaths.

THIS IS KEY.

Green line is 2021, red is 2020. The dotted line are all cause deaths minus COVID. That means the 2020 deaths that look out of place (above the mass of other lines but below the dotted line) are likely deaths caused by the panic.

Again, been saying this for weeks, but even accounting for late counting, 2021 deaths are at or BELOW where’d we expect them. Yes, people really do die of things other than COVID.

Yes, really. Here’s proof:

Heart disease and cancer killing far more people now. No panic over heart attacks or cancers. Which is strange, since in UK alone 300,000 had to skip their cancer checks during the panic.

Notice the spike in heart disease deaths at the start of the panic. Likely iatrogenic. Panic kills. Also notice the doom was only the top killer in winter time, and briefly at start of panic. I saw elsewhere claims all “excess” deaths in 2020 were the doom. No. The panic killed a great many, too.

Flu is still missing, but it’s always low this time of year, so I’ll skip the plot.

About masks in more depth, see this article and this one and especially this one. Leave the Cult of the Mask.

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Categories: Statistics

62 replies »

  1. Green line is 2021, red is 2020. The dotted line are all cause deaths minus COVID. That means the 2020 deaths that look out of place (above the mass of other lines but below the dotted line) are likely deaths caused by the panic.

    IHME says those are Deaths Due To COVID … DDTCOVID?

  2. ** Complacency (syn.) Civil Disobedience.
    ** “Fauci flip-flopped more than a docked perch” (Mark Briggs Twain)
    ** EEOC (The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission) – another Federal Agency, like the CDC (Center For
    Disease Control, which thinks it now has wartime powers.

  3. Who cares if Trump likes vaccines???? I like science and only scientifically made and tested vaccines. Some of those are questionable, though that is based on personal real risk. Others may not share those risks. And yes, use absolute numbers ONLY when assessing risk. I learned that with the diabetes risk crap that is in percentages and totally misleading.

    EVERY VACCINE HAD SIDE EFFECTS RACK UP. Really, read science. I will note that they pulled the swine flu vaccine, but then again, Obama ignored the whole mess, so no big deal. This “pandemic” (biological weapon test) is a big deal POLITICALLY so the vaccine is not going away. Note that just like the last two flu “crises”, this was NOTHING like predicted. These are psychological warfare, pure and simple. Also, THE PROPER WAY TO DEAL WITH VACCINE DEATHS is to sue the companies later on. Everyone knows that. Really….

    I have had an horrific cough since 1995. Wonder what I spread? Only kidding about spreading. A cough is meaningless. Many people have them and many coughs are in no way contagious. (I don’t get whooping cough vaccines because who could tell if I had it?)

    And there’s still HIV/AIDS at 35 million dead total and 37 million still alive and spreading the disease everywhere cheerfully and with the blessing of the governments. A quarter of a million died in 2018, and no one gives a whoop. Spread this pandemic far and wide for years and years and years.

  4. 10 years ago – Everybody needs to get their shingles vaccine. Whoops, turns out the vaccine causes super-shingles.

    Current year – Everybody needs to get their covid vaccine…

  5. It was fairly clear starting around this time last year that the entire **PANDEMIC 19gasp)!** was an election year gimmick that got out of control. The media panicked to try and get Trump. Trump panicked to try and “handle” the situation. This in turn made the media (and the public) panic even more.

    Yes, some people got sick. Yes, a lot of people died. But it was never beyond the same order of magnitude as more or less being the worst flu outbreak in a generation and there was no material effect at all on the economy or productive sectors of society that normal people would have noticed.

    Regardless of whether it started in a lab or not – another thing that was obvious from the start – the videos of people falling over “dead” in the street and stories about doctors dying at the hospital and apartment doors being welded shut were all a massive psy-op perpetrated by the Chinese government to harm Trump and the US.

    And it worked.

  6. I should add, the “material effect” on the economy was the result of government actions due to panic, not the virus killing off large numbers of healthy productive adults.

    China knew that the US was extremely polarized and partisan and that half of the country would believe any bad thing said or claimed against Trump. They wanted him out. They seeded the panic… and yet it still didn’t work because the only way the election was “lost” was because dems in big blue cities had to put their fingers on the scales to influence the result.

    Our country is sick and I’m not talking about covid when I say that.

  7. JR-

    They’re going right back to that playbook with whispers of new lockdowns in Guangzhou beginning to surface.

  8. Sheri –

    “Who cares if Trump likes vaccines????”

    I do. Now I can say, with convincing outrage, “I’ll never take a vaccine that TRUMP recommends.”

    Briggs –

    I am old enough to remember Australians as Crocodile Dundees and New Yorkers as Lords of Flatbush. Now both, and many others, cower behind masks and social distancing. At least most Texans still live the myth.

  9. “Especially since the EEOC said employers are free to require the vex from employees.” – quote

    “REQUIRED VACCINATION,” TO MERELY BE EMPLOYED?!
    Does this sound eerily familiar to ANYONE who lived through the 1970’s and the Hal Lindsey phenomenon?

    “And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world. If any man have an ear, let him hear.

    He that leadeth into captivity shall go into captivity: he that killeth with the sword must be killed with the sword. Here is the patience and the faith of the saints….And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed. (George Floyd?)

    And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: (Mandatory vaccines?)

    And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.” Rev. 13:15ff.

    Just as a ‘gosh, shucks, waddaya think of that?’ bit of trivia: three different analyses of Gematria (Jewish/Talmudic numbering systems) came up with three ‘sixes’ when looking at Biden’s name…
    https://www.gematrix.org/?word=joseph%20robinette%20biden%20jr%20%20666

    Not that having a ‘shiksa ho’ (which is what a goy married to a Jew, is looked upon as) who was raised a Kali-loving Hindoo, as our “#2 in command” means anything, you understand…It’s just one more ‘cohencidence.’ Right?

    St. Philaret of Moscow stated: “Love your personal enemies, hate the enemies of Christ, destroy the enemies of the fatherland.”

    I think we need massive, concentrated protests against Fauci, Biden, the Quackcine, the Lockdowns- EVERYTHING – against this Coup of the Demon-crats. Or secession…. This nation is fast becoming Anathema.

  10. EECO is wrong. No one – government or private employer – may require as a condition of employment that one submit oneself to an experimental drug being administered under an Emergency Use Authorization.

    If your employer, school, etc. tells you this, contact an attorney and prepare to sue (RFK Jr.’s organization has helpful resources available as well).

  11. Can anybody give me some pointer on herd immunity vis-a-vis diseases that may spread asymptomatically? My understanding was that herd immunity comes into play only if the immunity gained by individuals is such that they aren’t able to pass the infection further anymore, i.e. ceasing to be possible vectors of the disease with respect to other members of the society.

    However with covid-19 we’re told this is not the case — one explanation being the antibodies neutralize the virus only once it enters the blood stream but since this virus enters the organism through the lungs, it can still remain present and spread from there.

    But then, it wouldn’t really make sense to speak of herd immunity against covid-19, would it?

    Thanks!

  12. While the EEOC in an cynical attempt to rally waning vaxxer enthusiasm did slip in its opinion last Friday, eve of Memorial Day weekend, claiming that in its view, employers can mandate the ‘vaccine’ for employees, it also added that even though employers can “incentivize” the ‘vaccine’ they may not “coerce” employees to take the ‘vaccine.’ Thus its guideline is contradictory.

    The EEOC also explicitly punts on the legality, or not, of compulsory EEUA vaccines under “other” areas of federal law, and as Dennis points out “Emergency Use Authorized” products, in contrast to FDA approved products, under federal law may not be mandated, coerced or otherwise forced upon anyone. We are not living in Nazi Germany (yet). Province of Beijing, maybe.

    People have a clear right under U. S. law to decline the so-called ‘vaccines’ issued under EUA.

    One reason is the law. Specifically: codification of the prohibition of coercion for emergency use products under federal law. I invite your attention to the code of federal regulations, Title 21 C. F. R., Section 360bbb-3, which states in relevant part as follows in paragraph “(e) Conditions of authorization,” subparagraph “(1) Unapproved product;” part “(A) Required conditions”:

    “With respect to the emergency use of an unapproved product [i.e. the Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J so-called ‘vaccines’], the Secretary . . . shall . . . establish such conditions . . . as . . . necessary or appropriate to protect the public health, including the following:

    (ii) Appropriate conditions designed to ensure that individuals to whom the product is administered are informed–

    (III) of the option to accept or refuse administration of the product, of the consequences, if any, of refusing administration of the product, and of alternatives to the product that are available and of their benefits and risks.”

    It is clear from context that the “consequences” refer to medical and health consequences, as the reference to alternative treatments shows. Ivermectin, anyone? (This and other effective treatments were ignored, which shows the EUA should never have been granted to the so-called vaccines in the first place.) Further, context in the same paragraph orders the healthcare professional administering the shots to be informed “of the significant known and potential benefits and risks of the emergency use of the product, and of the extent to which such benefits and risks are unknown.”

    21 C. F. R., Section 360bbb-3(e)(1)(A)(i)(II).

    Any responsible doctor administering these shots must under the law inform himself of the risks and benefits, known and potential, and to whatever extent unknown, and convey that knowledge to the patient. It is medical malpractice not to do so. The sole purpose of this requirement is for the doctor or staffer to know what is being administered, and to convey this knowledge to the patient, so the patient can make an informed decision.

    As to the EEOC, despite a few logical bumps and bruises, it went the political hack route. I wonder who ordered that.

  13. Quite right C.P.: “(This and other effective treatments were ignored, which shows the EUA should never have been granted to the so-called vaccines in the first place.)”

    Yes, aside from the blatant efforts afoot by governments and businesses to effectively coerce people into taking these experimental gene therapies, the biggest scandal (from both a medical/scientific and legal point of view) is that they were ever given EUAs in the first place. In order to do so, the companies and FDA basically just had to ignore already existing and effective alternative treatments in order to promote these new shots as the only possible viable response to an “emergency.” (This is also one reason government have been reluctant to lift Covid restrictions and to admit there is no longer a true health emergency – no emergency, no EUA, and no continuance of shots until full approval).

    My guess is EEOC knows their statement is legal BS, but they are just doing their part as cogs in the mass Covid-Vax promoting machine and don’t give a damn. Misleading and effectively coercing people is their goal.

  14. McChuck – Super shingles? Can you elaborate? I can’t seem to find anything on it. Cover up?

  15. Jerome: “However with covid-19 we’re told this is not the case…”

    Yes, isn’t it mysterious Covid supposedly acts so differently from basically every other known virus?…almost as if the powers that be simply want it that way…(or it was created that way). But in any case it doesn’t act differently…With respect to Covid, many doctors and scientists have simply abdicated responsibility and pretended to forget or ignore everything they’ve ever learned about immunology.

    Prof Sunetra Gupta has been quite solid on the herd immunity issue. From an interview with her in March 2021:

    “There was no reason for us to think there’ll be no naturally acquired immunity to this virus. It belongs to family of other coronaviruses for which we have ample evidence that there is naturally acquired immunity…And now we know, now that so much time has elapsed, we have been able to do studies, which confirmed that COVID-19 elicits a long-term immunity…This is not always evident in whether people have antibodies in their blood at the time they’re sampled, those could disappear, but the immune memory, the ability to fight the virus, particularly at the level of whether or not you come down with severe disease and die, is definitely retained.
    (https://dryburgh.com/sunetra-gupta-i-dont-think-we-should-be-vaccinating-everybody).

    Many articles and interviews available online with Dr. Guptra.

  16. Milton

    https://www.aboutlawsuits.com/shingrix-errors-144549/

    First discusses current issues with the current Vaccine and discusses past issue of other vaccine
    (Oh and some people get shingles from Covid Vaccine)

    Shingles Vaccine Problems

    The report comes amid concerns over the potential side effects of Zostavax, another shingles vaccine that was introduced in May 2006. Merck now faces a growing number of Zostavax lawsuits, which claim that the drug not only fails to protect against shingles as advertised, but actually causes a more persistent strain of the infection.

  17. Dennis

    Good catch on new user Jerome! That’s why it’s always important to “rescan” for comments!

    As new users go into “moderation”, the placeholder leaves the comment at the time it was received and additional comments for hot topics may make them go unnoticed. Jerome had a great question. Jerome, now that you’re in the system, you shouldn’t go into moderation unless you mess up your name or email

  18. ”We continue!

    All right, Boss. The skat isn’t ending, so yeah, let’s continue.

    ”Trump: I’m a big fan of the vaccine”.

    Trump is a ass. This is one — there are others — of the fatal failures of his presidency.

    For a great overview of our predicament you need to read Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò‘s latest:

    http://www.accademianuovaitalia.it/index.php/cultura-e-filosofia/chiesa-cattolica/10170-intervento-di-mons-vigano

    You see it first in the Italian original, and if you scroll down you find the English translation. Read the whole thing. Some quotes:

    ”The lack of “common sense” in individuals has in large part made possible this assault against God, against the Church, and against the human race that is represented by the Great Reset and the ideology it expresses. Irrationality, the abdication of reason, the annihilation of critical judgment and the denial of evidence are the true pandemic virus of our time, which in rebellion against God manifests a delirium of omnipotence and in collective madness reveals the just nemesis of this wicked challenge.

    He goes on to illuminate the thinking of the Overlords:

    ”Let’s start from the point of view of those who organized this plot rather than of those who are suffering it unknowingly. If we put ourselves in the shoes of a Bill Gates, a George Soros, or a Klaus Schwab, it will not be difficult to understand that if we shamelessly declare that we have decided to decimate the world population by means of a gene serum, in all probability we will not obtain the consent of the masses nor the support of institutions, because making our criminal plan known would provoke a revolt and above all it would reveal our cards.”

    He goes on to elaborate their thinking and you really must read it because he understands deeply what he’s talking about:

    ”First we succeeded in creating fear of an “invisible enemy” and silencing the dissenting voices of scientists, intellectuals, and simple citizens; then we succeeded in making people believe that the salvation of the world depends on vaccines; now we are able to blackmail billions of human beings, who will be told that if they want to return to some form of loosening of the restrictions that have been imposed they must accept the “green pass” in order to travel abroad, go to the stadium or go shopping. The pressure we have placed on the masses is such that many will accept these forms of control. Soon they will put out their hands to have a subcutaneous chip implanted that will permit us to bring our plan to its completion.”

    It goes on. Viganò’s historical depth is a spiritual and mental tonic in this age of devilish, imbecilic superficiality. Related: I’m reading E. Michael Jones, “Barren Metal: A History of Capitalism as the Conflict Between Labor and Usury”. Holy Mackeral, this is great stuff. I urge you to read it. So much of what we were taught, regarding economics and history, are the mendacious heresies of wicked men.

  19. Briggs

    You truly take people for idiots.

    You spent over a year down playing COVID-19 as a minor illness unworthy of any special reaction or mitigation mesure.

    Rand Paul was even worst.

    Now, that some people claim that the virus came from a Chinese lab, that benign illness is actually a serious problem.

    It is just as likely that the employee from the lab got infected at the market than at a lab.

    The biggest problem, for the theory that the pandemic came from a lab because of those employees, is that these employees would need to be among the first Infected. The first people infected were infected in August or September 2020. The lab employees were hospitalized in November when concerns were starting to rise in Wuhan hospitals. 2 or 3 months later.

  20. By the way, after one 16 month of studying China, I discovered that they have a lot more freedoms than American.

    You are stupid if you think that China is Communist. In reality they are capitalist. And their capitalism is purer than the USA.

    America is becoming an irrelevant society. It won’t be that long before the rest of the worlds close it like North Korea.

    You are bunch of degenerate idiot

    Hell Trump freaking bastard

  21. In terms of Legal Nitty Gritty the EEOC statement is just a verbal vapor. EEOC violations are a codified cause-of-action much like their cousin RICO (Racketeering Influenced Corrupt Organizations). All the EEOC statement really imports is that courts will not be permitted to countenance separate EEOC based claims brought on by an employer mandate for employees to “VAXinate”. Such cases will be uniformly dismissed. However, there are numerous other grounds upon which an employee in such circumstances can bring suit ~ without claiming an EEOC violation. DENNIS makes this point. The EEOC is just a paper tiger ~ puffed up ~ with tin foil claws and teeth ~ and D.C.Halitosis.

  22. McChuck: Yep. I thought about the shingles vaccine, but having had them once, decided nope, don’t need it. It’s that “absolute numbers” risk assessment thing.

    Jim: That’s nice. Always rational.

    Sylvain: Never rational.

    New method for band in HS:
    can-someone-please-explain-this-school-band-members-play-instruments-through-holes-cut-in-surgical-masks
    At least the tents stayed inside.

  23. Sylvain:
    Briggs

    You truly take people for idiots.

    Only because they are and I can prove it 100%.

  24. Good to see Sylvain pop-up for another take from the Branch Covidians’ North America headquarters in Canada. Your government has proven to be among the most perfect stooges of the WEF and CCP, ravaging the country and destroying any semblance of liberty to prove how supplicant they can be to their overlords, so a little humility may be in order when trying to call out others as “idiots.”

    Dean: I hadn’t seen that latest from Viganò yet. Funny you bring up E Michael Jones as well. Just last night I was listening to a recent interview he posted on his Bit Chute channel last week. As he has before, he criticized, Viganò for allegedly misunderstanding the true issue with Vatican II (Viganò blames Freemasons, while EMJ blames…guess who!? Rhymes with news!). In any case, both are largely in agreement with most stuff, especially Covid and the NWO, so whatever disagreements about the roots of the main issues facing the Church and the worlds are somewhat minor. I picked up “Logos Rising” and “Barren Metal” after seeing Rachel Fulton Brown praise the latter on her blog last year (and she did a couple interviews herself with EMJ about both books). Almost finished with LR, BM still in my “to read” pile and hope to get to it soon.

    It’s absolutely outrageous that such books have been banned by Amazon (indeed every EMJ book is banned – as he was also from Twitter and YouTube; failing to reign in Big Tech on such censorship and deplatforming issues must be rated among the worst failures of DJT and the GOP congress he had his first two years).

  25. Jan: Depending on what the specifics of what any employer actually does though, I still think it’d might be worth it to file an EEOC claim in some cases for creating an intimidating, hostile, or abusive work environment if they either make one’s job contingent on getting a covid vax, or even if not fired, make it difficult to continue working in a reasonable manner, be eligible for promotions, etc. Sure EEOC may simply deny it, but at least it creates grounds of appeal and another avenue to pursue in court in addition to other claims and remedies that may be available under other laws. EEOC site on harassment itself says, “Harassment is unwelcome conduct that is based on race, color, religion, sex (including pregnancy), national origin, age (40 or older), disability or genetic information.” If one had religious, age, or disability/genetic related reasons for not wanting to get a Covid vax, for example, could potentially still be grounds for EEOC claim, no? Anyway, just kind of thinking out loud…employment and EEOC law is not my main area, but anything that can be pursued should be in the drive to prevent the growing Covid-based tyranny in all areas of life from taking hold.

  26. This might be the worst example I’ve seen yet of a politician clearly completely owned by Big Pharma and trained to just repeat propaganda no matter what the question: https://twitter.com/AL_Maplewood/status/1397733921102598146

    Woman asks about alternate treatments, like Ivermectin, and why they haven’t been pursued more actively. He completely ignores, and just says, “We’re working on greater vaccine availability…,” as if that’s a remotely logical reply to her question, which was not at all about vaccines or their availability. Politicians everywhere have disgraced themselves even more than than usual for their ilk since Covid began. Utterly sick and evil people.

  27. Dennis,

    I will gladly join my fiancée in HongKong in July or August. It turned out that she is a lot more wealthy than I first thought, I learned about 6 months ago that she is a billionaire.

    I used to have a lot of respect for the USA. But this blog broke the idealism I had toward it. You don’t cherish freedom. You don’t know what freedom is.

    Now, I would never accept to move to the USA which is closer to Saoudi Arabia than Canada, thanks to retards like Briggs followers.

    The USA are the laughing stock of the world since 2016. You are a decadent society heading toward a second civil war, which is already started on the right and the Democratic Party is just too stupid to notice or acknowledge it.

    You guys live in a fantasy land. You can’t discern reality from fiction.

  28. And btw, far from being “too stupid to notice or acknowledge it [coming civil war]” it’s the Democrat Party accelerating toward civil war with its relentless efforts to demonize and attack every American (whom they slander as “domestic terrorists”) who doesn’t get on board with their Woke Left agenda.

    And if you think American is unique in being sunk in decadence (as if that’s a riposte to anything I’ve ever said to you or anyone else here – where have I denied American is decadent and in a state of collapse?) you need to pay attention and look around the world more.

    The only peaceful solution foreseeable is to revive secessionist movements, eradicate the federal govt Leviathan in Washington DC, and let each state go its own way – either alone or in with like-minded others. The federal government if the USA is the most dangerous, debased, and vile entity on earth right now.

  29. Sylvain “I’ve totally got a billionaire girlfriend in Hong Kong” Allard lecturing about discerning reality from fiction.

  30. Sylvain Has a Chinese billionaire girlfriend.

    What could possibly go wrong.

  31. Dean: “What could possibly go wrong?”

    Well, Chinese billionaires have an unusually high rate of mysterious disappearances and sudden death from mortal illness, murder, suicide, and even execution: https://www.forbes.com/sites/raykwong/2011/07/25/friends-dont-let-friends-become-chinese-billionaires/?sh=7cf142642dda

    The article is eight years old, so not sure what current numbers are:
    “…a Chinese billionaire dies every 40 days…China Daily reported Friday that unnatural deaths have taken the lives of 72 mainland billionaires over the past eight years. (Do the math.). Which means that if you’re one of China’s 115 current billionaires, as listed on the 2011 Forbes Billionaires List, you should be more than a little nervous…Mortality rate notwithstanding, what’s more disturbing is how these mega wealthy souls met their demise. According to China Daily, 15 were murdered, 17 committed suicide, seven died from accidents and 19 died from illness. Oh, yes, and 14 were executed.”

    Good luck, Sylvain!

  32. Dennis,

    Forbes has only access to Chinese business data from business that are international.

    Most business in China are local. They don’t require external market. They have a 1.4 billion people market.

    My girlfriend businesses is local. She is diversified. From cosmetics, with a market of 500,000 million women to powder milk with a market of at least 30 millions new born each. Her portfolio has more than 80 companies that are not traded on the financial market.

    The number of billionaires in HongKong alone is above 300.

    Plus your reference is from 2011.

    Between you and me, who do you think laugh the loudest?

  33. Not surprisingly, Baizuo Allard, you’ve totally missed the point and taken too seriously (leftists do have such horrible senses of humor) what was meant to be a lighthearted riff on the shockingly high number of odd deaths among Chinese billionaires, and sarcastically wishing you luck in avoiding such a fate along with your alleged gf (I had specifically mentioned that the article was from 2011, though you seem to think you’ve somehow “owned” me by re-stating that and mentioning that the number of billionaires is now higher now ackshually, mmkay – quelle surprise! – though I wouldn’t be surprised if that disproportionately high billionaire death rate has also kept pace. Any figures on billionaires executed or suicided or accidented since 2011?).

    And I really don’t give a damn about your honeytrap’s portfolio. I have no idea what you do, or how you met or invented this woman, but she’s clearly CCP (no one becomes a billionaire in China without being so, and they don’t seem to live long. Btw, any news on why Jack Ma disappeared for several months later year? Sent for a little R&R at re-education camp for a bit?).

    Who’s laughing loudest? I will be when Baizuo Allard and Miss Hong Kong Honeytrap end up in the Laogai.

  34. Yes she is CCP but was elected long after she was worth 100s of millions.

    Chinese capitalism is much purer than US capitalism. The rule gives the chance to anyone with a good idea to develop it.

    US capitalism is corrupt to the core. Corrupt laws put in place by bought politicians,

    The election of An idiot like Trump showed the flaws of democracy. There are no idiots in Chinese head of states.

    The USA stopped being a democracy since at least 2000.

    The USA is not a shining light on a hill, it void that lead to hell.

  35. Sylvain’s the kind of guy who is best refuted simply by letting him talk.

  36. Such utter incoherence, Sylvain. On the one hand you criticize the US for having “stopped being a democracy since at least 2000” (I’m no democrat – small or large D – so I don’t care, and everyone knows it’s long been a plutocratic oligarchy anyway), but then claim the election of Trump by democratic means shows the “flaws of democracy” (But let me guess – you think Biden’s “election” was more legitimate than Trump’s in 2016, despite far more evidence of fraud in 2020 than 2016, even after years of relentless Democrat efforts to push their “Russia collusion” hoax?). So basically, your view is that democracy is good so long as your candidate wins, but flawed when your opponent wins, eh?

    And the China you laud as an alleged exemplar of “purer” capitalism (no – it’s highly state-controlled mercantilism; and no less corrupt than the current US regime and economic system) has even less democracy, whose absence in the US you claim to deplore. So, absence of dumbocracy in the USA is bad, but its absence in China is good, so long as the regime allows some people to make money? (Which is basically how the regime bought-off the Chinese people after the 1989 Tienanmen Square massacre, whose 32nd anniversary happens to be today; though hundreds of millions still live in relative squalor, toiling in factories as subsistence wage slaves making junk for global markets, and non-Han citizens are ruthlessly discriminated against by the Han majority – especially Uighurs of East Turkestan).

    Anyway, enjoy your new life as a mail-order Baizuo Gigolo for lonely Hong Kong matrons. Here’s a handy phrase you should learn for your new home: W? shì y?gè zh?nggòng x?shang g?u.

  37. I don’t know why the tone markers got converted to ?s above.

    Should read as this (though with proper tone markers on the missing letters above, which apparently won’t print correctly here): Wo shi yige zhongong xishang guo.

  38. “It is just as likely that the employee from the lab got infected at the market than at a lab.”
    Of course not, Sylvain, you’re confusing what’s possible with what’s likely or even credible

  39. ….on the other hand, Rudolph there are those who follow the crowd even in a very small room which is taken up by cowards and followers claiming to be braver than thou

  40. I posted a rather rambling discussion of the difference between ARR and RRR on our local health authority’s Facebook page. Most were unhappy to hear that a 95% efficacy is not what they think and/or hope it is. Someone pointed me to this NY Times article:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/13/learning/what-does-95-effective-mean-teaching-the-math-of-vaccine-efficacy.html

    Leaving aside their drivel describing Fauci as “the nation’s top infectious disease expert”, I think the good folks at the NYT are avoiding discussing ARR vs. RRR for reasons mentioned in this blog. But, on the other hand, they may have a point about infection risks being reduced overall. Any thoughts?

  41. Dennis,

    “So, absence of dumbocracy in the USA is bad”

    Yes, because it put in power the biggest idiot on earth, Trump.

  42. Joy,

    The speed of spread of the pandemic puts the first COVID-19 case in mid August, early September.

    The pandemic began before the lab workers got sick.

  43. Sylvain, about the date of the so called ‘index case’:

    According to gene sequencing carried out early on in England (with information supplied
    BY a Chinese lab, not the one in question, but from a separate province);

    The earliest is September to November 7th, latest
    This was known over a year ago.

    It is possible to map and track back replications or copies of virus in such a way as to know by date (within a time window) without simply looking at speed of spread, which is also affected by other variables than number of infections; human movement being the most obvious main force.

    At the time it was in direct conflict with what the Chinese authorities had admitted regarding when they first knew of the disease.

    The lab which, altruistically and generously provided the genetic data of the virus, was then closed down by the Chinese state. Somewhere way back there is an interview with a Chinese ambassador answering difficult questions about this matter.
    was from lab to person to market. The lab would have been relatively ‘clean’ in all regards, would it not? Except perhaps this one mishap.

    So, the sequencing showed September to November 7th, at the latest.

    China tried to claim they alerted WHO as soon as they ‘knew’. They clearly did not. Even the martyred ophthalmic surgeon? or optometrist? is proof they were covering up. There’s a lot of reasons to cover up that don’t necessarily mean intent. Cover up is what happened though. The precise opposite of what England did as soon as they discovered the tent variant. It’s the right thing to do, even if some say it’s done to make people panic. Rather have good information early than sugar coated information of little or no use for decision making.

  44. Sorry, Sylvain,
    The likely route to the market, pun intended, was from lab => person => market. The lab would have been relatively ‘clean’ in all regards, would it not? Except perhaps this one mishap.

    So, the sequencing showed September to 7th November 2019, at the latest.

    China claimed they alerted WHO as soon as they ‘knew’. They clearly did not. Even the martyred ophthalmic surgeon? or optometrist? is proof they were covering up. There’s a lot of reasons to cover up that don’t necessarily mean intent. Cover up is what happened though. The precise opposite of what England did as soon as they discovered the KENT variant. It’s the right thing to do, even if some say it’s done to make people panic. Incidentally I’m four miles from the epicentre where that started and was at the time…

  45. That lab workers were among the first (if not the first) to exhibit symptoms makes the lab the most likely origin. It’s also beginning to look like the NIH and other US health organizations helped pay for it. The lab also has a checkered past wrt saftey. Then there’s that TDS response. Small wonder that the Lab-as-origin was openly ridiculed.

    Even the Leftist media are catching on. Stopped reading your morning Talking Points memo, Syl? Tsk! Tsk!

    Yes, because it put in power the biggest idiot on earth, Trump
    A certain Canadian took that prize years ago.

    Just out of curiosity, why is your command of English becoming progressively worse? Here’s a post made on Jan 28, 2013 in nearly perfect English: https://wmbriggs.com/post/7168/#comment-85170 and the mistakes could be attributed to typos (e.g., dropped ‘d’ in ‘inclined’).

    Now, some 8+ years later, you seem to have lost the hang of English niceties. Not everywhere but your lapses are becoming more prominent.

    possessive forms: My girlfriend businesses is local. — You have girlfriend businesses?
    number matching of subject and verb: Most business in China are local.
    and: You are bunch of degenerate idiot
    missing verb and article: Hell Trump freaking bastard — or is this just you screaming at the sky?

    What’s weird is that even French has similar rules. Are you becoming lazy? Off your meds? Back on your meds? Are these examples of when you aren’t able to copy and paste from the Talking Points memos?

  46. David,

    “Now, some 8+ years later, you seem to have lost the hang of English niceties. Not everywhere but your lapses are becoming more prominent”.

    I was attending university back then and took more care in my language.

    Now I’m a lot more busy. And I care a lot less.

    “Even the Leftist media are catching on. Stopped reading your morning Talking Points memo, Syl? Tsk! Tsk!”

    I have my own opinions. No need for media talking points. Even more when those talking points concerns China which are usually disinformation. Mainly, whatever is concerning Xinjiang.

    The mention of the lab, in the early days of the pandemic, were mentioning a weaponized version of the virus released on purpose.

    This virus would be a very bad scientific project if we are to believe Briggs ranting about how ordinary this virus was.

  47. Now I’m a lot more busy. And I care a lot less.
    Not too busy to keep you from posting here I see. Being sloppy helps everyone to realize how much consideration you’ve put into your thoughts. Good job!

    I have my own opinions. No need for media talking points.
    Yet you never voice them until they become talking points. Funny how that works.

    in the early days of the pandemic, were mentioning a weaponized version of the virus released on purpose
    How does that have any bearing on the lab as a source?

    This virus would be a very bad scientific project if we are to believe Briggs ranting about how ordinary this virus was.
    The most effective weapons are the those which cause the enemy to expend resources when dealing with its consequences. A rather mild flu strain would work in this regard. Soldiers with three-seven days of flu-like symptoms are less effective and require extra resources. The purpose of gain of function of a virus is to make it more contagious to humans. If it is also particularly nasty, that’s an added bonus. Even better if it can induce panic.

    It’s irrelevant that COVID-19 was not more effective. The point is it appears to have been manufactured and it escaped irrespective of intent behind the escape.

    Whether or not it was a bad scientific project is a question of ethics.

  48. It was during Obama’s Reign that money was sent, presumably as an investment into research to the same lab.
    Maybe China invited many nations to ‘invest’.

    It says nothing about what they knew at the time but it does look very likely that some of the caginess is coming from parties having been unwittingly assisting such research

    Sylvain listen to the Sky News feed, they never liked Trump, (as their official foreign policy! ) So they might be more enlightening for you

    Once trust is gone the bar of credibility raises and for some, the acceptable amount of evidence for confidence in some given information is unreachable

  49. Baizuo Allard, ever the dependable CCP lapdog from East Turkestan to Wuhan. Ruff, Ruff.

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