Statistics

Why Lockdowns Spread Bugs Faster Than Liberty: Coronavirus Update XLVI

LOCKDOWNS KILL

Suppose a bug is 100% transmissible. Everybody in contact with somebody infected therefore gets it, and passes it on with certainty to the next person they meet.

A lockdown will spread this bug faster than allowing people to remain at liberty.

Lockdowns are not quarantines in the old-fashioned sense of that term, where infected people were isolated—kept separate in every way from the non-infected. If you think lockdown and hear quarantine your ears are busted. Quarantines can make sense; lockdowns never do.

Lockdowns are merely forced gatherings. People in lockdown are allowed to venture forth from their dwellings to do “essential” activities, like spending money at oligarch-run stores. These stores are collection points, where people are concentrated. Some are allowed to go to jobs, such as supporting oligarch-run stores.

Which stores are allowed to remain open which are forced to close are arbitrary. No standalone restaurants, for instance, but you can eat in oligarch-run company cafeterias, like at Costco. Google employees can eat in their own cafeterias or break rooms, too. Restaurants can still come to you, via delivery. Another concentration point. You can go to to grocery store, but some aisles, those containing forbidden items, might be closed off, thus forcing people into fewer spaces.

Lockdowns are not quarantines. Lockdowns concentrate people into fewer areas. Lockdowns are only pain.

Lockdowns allow people outside to mingle for a time, then it forces them back inside to mingle with a vengeance.

It’s clear that our 100% transmissible bug will spread much faster when people are forced to spend more time indoors with each other. Once one person gets it, he will spread it to those at his home immediately. If people were at liberty, and therefore more separated, the bug would still spread to everybody, but more slowly (the speed here is relative).

Now suppose the bug only has a 1 in a 1,000 chance of spreading per contact. Low. Lockdowns will still spread it more quickly than liberty. And for the same reason. Lockdowns force people together. The venues they are allowed to venture to are restricted, and therefore concentrate contact, and they force people inside their homes where it’s obvious contact time increases. Lockdowns concentrate contact spaces and times.

Transmission rate, then, has little to do with the efficacy of lockdowns. There is no efficacy of lockdowns preventing transmission, only in controlling where the transmissions will take place.

The opposite of the lockdown is quarantine-liberty. The ill are quarantined, kept entirely separate from the healthy until they are dead or no longer communicable. Because of cheating, transmission is still possible, but it’s far less likely. Liberty of the healthy allows people to live their normal lives, which slows transmission. And does not concentrate power into the hands of the government or oligarchy.

It was obvious before 2020 that lockdowns (with then only weather forcing people to gather inside for long periods) not only did not stop the transmission of bugs, but helped spread them. A look (below) at the all-cause death numbers peaking every single winter without exception (this year, too) proved that. It was in no way controversial. It was so well known that forced contact spread bugs that mentioning it was like saying the sun rose in the east.

Then came 2020 and the “expert” idea of lockdowns would do the opposite of what everybody had always known they would do. Suddenly, instead of spreading bugs, as they always did before, they would stop or at least slow the spread. Experts said so.

Why?

Models. Specifically, the two-step Model Circular Jerk.

It works like this. A modeler says “X is true.” He builds a model that assumes “X is true”. He runs the model, which output consists of “X is true” and its variants. He then announces, “X is true, confirmed by my sophisticated computer model.”

In our case, we have a Ferguson claiming some new variant of the coronavirus has a higher transmissibility, an assumption. He says to himself “Lockdowns slow and stop the spread of bugs”. He builds a model that assumes “Lockdowns slow and stop the spread of bugs”. He runs the models, which consists of “This lockdowns will slow and stop the spread of this new bug variant.” And he announced he has confirmed the efficacy of lockdowns via his sophisticated model.

And he is believed.

This happens everywhere, not just with coronavirus.

All that being said, the only thing that makes sense in modern lockdowns are limiting mass gatherings where mass intimacy is expected, such as at riots. Even still, the higher the transmissibility, the less effects these bans will have.

Update

BOOK UPDATE

The book is still sold out! Yes, still. The Price of Panic.

E-book and audio book versions are still available.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

Daily tests:

This is the number of daily tests. The date of the CDC’s peak attributed deaths is noted. Christmas really knocked these numbers down, thank God.

More tests lead to more positives. Each positive test in the media is counted as a new “case”. These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.

We need to break people of the testing habit. New Years will also keep the numbers lower. So maybe a few will give up their routine testing.

Here’s the CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot. The late drop off is late counting, which takes up to eight weeks to get all, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the COVID numbers.

The black line is all deaths, including COVID. The dashed is all deaths minus attributed COVID, and the red, for perspective, is COVID. (Again, the drop off is late counts.) The blue line, about the same order as the doom, is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients).

IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND DEATHS ALWAYS INCREASE RIGHT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, PEAKING IN MID JANUARY. DO NOT BE ALARMED. PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON!

The January peaks are caused when we enter our voluntary lockdowns in winter, spreading bugs. This is also the “solution” governments hit upon to stop the spread of bugs. Lockdowns kill, as we saw above.

The CDC (important!) stopped reporting separate flu and pneumonia deaths midway through 2020, but I estimate them after by subtracting deaths “involving” COVID from those “involving” (their word) pneumonia or flu or COVID. That’s the dashed blue line.

Here is another way to look at the same data, week of the year all cause deaths, along with a model (black line) of what deaths would look like without COVID.

CDC has their own “excess” death model with which I do not agree. I’ve explained that in other posts; briefly, the black line is my model, based only on extrapolating population increase. That allows us to produce this figure, which is the cumulative estimate of the 2020 total “excess” deaths.

Ignore the last three points or so, which are due to late counts. We’re proportionally about the same number of “excess” deaths we saw in the ’57-’58 Asian flu.

Understand: these “excess” are not just COVID, but all the deaths caused by the “solution” to COVID, caused by the lockdowns, missed diagnoses, suicides, iatrogenic deaths, and on and on. Panic kills.

Flu is still missing. CDC found one pediatric death for flu this year. One. Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker, showing the same thing:

These, like the CDC flu picture are not deaths or illnesses, but counts of tests made. Testing has disappeared, because all tests are COVID tests now.

If we focus only on COVID deaths, we lose all perspective. We can see above that deaths peak every January, because of our self-enforced wintertime lockdowns, when we all hunker down inside and spread bugs among ourselves.

Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of).

Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:

POPULATION FATALITY RATES
                 Age     COVID OtherCause
1       Under 1 year 0.0000082    0.00420
2          1–4 years 0.0000011    0.00018
3         5–14 years 0.0000012    0.00011
4        15–24 years 0.0000110    0.00070
5        25–34 years 0.0000440    0.00130
6        35–44 years 0.0001300    0.00200
7        45–54 years 0.0003500    0.00360
8        55–64 years 0.0008200    0.00790
9        65–74 years 0.0020000    0.01600
10       75–84 years 0.0050000    0.03800
11 85 years and over 0.0140000    0.12000

No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID. If you’re under 44, the COVID risk is vanishingly low. Our level of fear is in not in line with the actual risk.

About masks in depth, see this article and this one.

To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here

Categories: Statistics

41 replies »

  1. Covid apparently doesn’t work like chicken pox or whooping cough. Parents were used to their kids all having the disease at one time (virtually) and getting it over with. Covid would be more like FLU, where you get it over and over. Meaning the Covid vaccination is garbage and we’re all prisoners forever. If no group rises up, you can expect hell on earth from here on out and I have little hope of any group with courage or sense still existing out there.

    If we used the old west “quarantine” (or the NK method), people were shot for trying to get into or out of a town. Food could be left at a line at the side of the town, etc, but crossing the line meant death. China actually reportedly used this method. No one left home. The Army brought food. NO shopping, grocery buying, nothing. Only ONE family member was allowed to drag the meal out of the hallway outside the apartment into the inside. If this is true (and with the Chinese, lies are as common as Democrats and the MSM here—as in virtually all the time), that may explain why their quarantine worked and everyone else’s lockdowns failed and destroyed their countries. I guess we know who the smartest people out there are and it ain’t us. Of course, massive mistreatment and owning of humans has always won out for the dictators throughout history. China should be no different. An owned population is an obedient one.

    Models work because Fauci is one of the world’s best LIARS and idiot Trump did not fire him. And because people are ignorant and love their condition and make sure it stays that way. (Yes, one models to make their hypothesis “true”. No proof is involved. It’s not science. Models are propaganda through and through now.)

  2. “Lockdown” — the term origin is in prison. Prisoners would get locked into their cells when the wardens needed to control them. The Overlords see us as prisoners and they are the wardens. Because they have the all-important money, and thus, power. We are the Overlord’s prisoners, to be tagged, chipped, jabbed, culled, taxed, punished, masked, humiliated, indoctrinated, debauched, and locked down. This sadistic control makes the Overlords feel powerful, and their lives worth living. Seeing the poor, foolish people wearing their slave muzzles gives the Overlords a sick thrill. And it whets their appetite for more power. They need more powerful thrills, more and more.

    These sociopaths find one another and build organizations to gratify their powerlust. The World Economic Forum is one such and the scope of their power-mongering is vast. These are men whose every waking moment is devoted to scheming, plotting, and organizing for more control over the prisoners. James Corbett at Corbettreport.com does a great job highlighting their plots. Power-hungry men have always afflicted this fallen world. The American Founders knew their type well, and devised a power structure resistant to their schemes. But, alas, no castle is impregnable, especially when enemy sappers are given liberty to undermine.

    So here we are, fighting for our nation, and indeed our civilization, against demonic foes who hate us, and seek our enslavement and destruction, while, incredibly, half the country thinks this pitiless enemy is their savior! Oh, foolish people! God help us.

  3. “Then came 2020 and the “expert” idea of lockdowns would do the opposite of what everybody had always known they would do.”

    Lots of things claimed by so-called “experts” this year that are the precise opposite of standard medical or scientific practice because this one virus apparently behaves opposite to every other virus known to man. Any positive PCR test is a “case” even if not accompanied by actual symptoms of any illness whatsoever. And just recently the WHO, for example, changed its definition of herd immunity to define it solely as a certain percentage of the population being vaccinated (natural herd immunity as a result of enough people simply having become infected or exposed to the actual virus – or having latent immunity from prior infections, such as T-cell immunity – apparently is no longer a thing, because Covid of course!).

    Same with masks. Plenty of evidence long before even the Danish study that they don’t work to slow spread of viruses in a community setting (CDC and WHO recommended against such use, as well as people like Fauci and the Surgeon General as late as May or June), yet suddenly for political reasons it was decided that masks are “the best defense we have” and they’ve become an object of cult-like worship. Yesterday I saw reports of a major study which demonstrated that asymptomatic or “pre-symptomatic” spreading of the virus is almost non-existent. Alleged aymptomatic or “pre-symptomtic spread was one of the major claims used to justify the face muzzle regime. This study along with the Danish mask study should be enough to put an end to the face muzzle regime. But, like the Danish mask study a couple months ago, this new study will be ignored by the tyrants and alleged “experts” in charge to keep the tyranny going forever. It will never end because people don’t seem to want to wake up and realize or admit that they’ve been living an absolute lie for the past 10 months for a virus in reality barely more serious than flu (and less deadly than past pandemics like Asian flu in 1959 or Hong Kong flu in 1968).

  4. “The (infectious) are quarantined, kept entirely separate from the healthy until they are dead or no longer communicable.”

    The crack in this otherwise entirely-reasonable policy, through which all the current outrages have slipped, is simply this: What do you do when you cannot tell the infectious from the healthy, save by a test which (a) most people will not get unless compelled or they are already showing symptoms, in which case their infectiousness has already reached their community, and (b) has been set, through official panic, at a sensitivity level so high the false-positive error margin is nearly equal to the real positivity rate? Every lockdown policy out there is justified on the basis that the truly dangerous transmission vectors are the asymptomatic and presymptomatic infected, who can’t be identified so as to be quarantined.

    I do not ask this to justify current policy (which I agree does not work) but to find the best answer to this against lockdown defenders, and unfortunately pointing to the increasing number of studies which fail to validate asymptomatic transmission to any measurable degree doesn’t work — nobody now believes statistics unless they already agree with their conclusions.

  5. Hello Briggs! A few weeks ago, you showed the excess mortality for Canada and it looked like there were fewer overall deaths in 2020 than in any of the past few years. On Christmas Eve, StatsCan released an updated version which shows much excess death where previously there was none: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020017-eng.htm. The provinces with the most excess death throughout the year seem to be British Colombia, Alberta, and Ontario. I’m wondering how much of this excess death is due to lockdown. For instance, in Alberta, week 44 shows 605 deaths this year, as opposed to 500 last year, but the Alberta government recorded only 27 deaths from Covid. Evidently, over 60% of that week’s excess death was not from Covid! I can’t seem to find any charts of weekly coronadoom deaths for Canada as a whole (and am too lazy to add up the daily numbers manually), but I very much suspect that the same trend will be evident. Thanks for trying to keep us all sane!

  6. “unfortunately pointing to the increasing number of studies which fail to validate asymptomatic transmission to any measurable degree doesn’t work — nobody now believes statistics unless they already agree with their conclusions”

    They don’t care about facts or actual science – only The Science (TM, Democrat Party 2020) – and promoting their new Covid Cult.

  7. Big box stores are open because they are income streams for China and the CCP, as is Amazon.

    Mom and pop restaurants are not.

    Second the Corbett recommendation.

    Catherine Austin Fitts is also excellent.

  8. “They don’t care about facts or actual science – only The Science (TM, Democrat Party 2020) …”

    To be fair, it’s not that they don’t care about facts or science — it’s simply that nobody now trusts anyone to report said facts or science accurately unless their political bona fides are already verified.

    Science is only as trustworthy as actual scientists show themselves to be, and scientists are people. I don’t demand that scientists never make mistakes, but I do demand that they admit them as soon as they discover them.

  9. @wmbriggs. I am one of those folks who had Lockdown and Quarantine overlapping in my head. I am also a guy that has Reverend, Pastor, Preacher, Minister all lined up together though. It almost cost me this week. I got an email from the Pastor of the church where our Scouts meet. He needed a favor. I was ready to help. It was only when his ask went from 1 gift card to 5 gift cards at $200 each AND he wanted me to snap a picture of the front and back of the card and email them to him that I started double checking.

    @sheri… Beautiful example: Chinese locking people in their homes and playing “real” quarantine games.

    @wmbriggs: How confident are you in the numbers provided about “excess” deaths. The validation that goes into those numbers leaves me wondering if I can even believe them on the Order of Magnitude scale. Have you found anyone who has done the Mortuary study on a national level? We have a few isolated data points. (You had a guest post recently discussing it).

  10. Begin one minute into the vid

    https://youtu.be/VmT8_X_IclM

    The Swamp (Where U Florida plays its home football games) is where fans have a blast and get loud and proud.

    Oncet, college students were in the vanguard of disobedience and radial rejection of authority. No longer.

    How great would it be if The Denizens of The Swamp left the stadium, refused to wear masks, went to bars etc etc etc .

    There has to be mass protests and mass rejection of the Unconstitutional tyranny that once free men are expected to meekly surrender to.

    It is not enough for college students in The Swamp to sing Tom Petty’s “I won’t back down” every break before the fourth quarter. They have to put that intellectual defiance into action.

  11. There are several studies prior to 2010 that describe the utter futility and horror
    any generalized lockdown would entail, specifically in terms of job losses and
    suicidal despair. The utter futility and ineffectualness of lockdowns to combat a virus
    was well known in epidemiological circles as far back as the 1800’s. You quarantine
    the sick and not the healthy in order to achieve herd immunity. Having been duped
    into calling this a ‘pandemic’, people who should know better have succumb to the
    linguistic double speak sleight of hand and unwittingly reinforce the narrative. Be that
    as it may it is now important to focus on ‘phase two’ of this psy-op which is the inoculation
    of everyone on the planet with an untested RNA vectored vaccine.

    ‘THE BIGGEST EXPERIMENT EVER DONE’
    https://thehighwire.com/videos/the-biggest-experiment-ever-done/

  12. My father recently had a one day flu type illness. Only overlap with COVID was a fever, all the other symptoms were different (in particular a very phlemgy cough but no trouble breathing). Out of an abundance of caution he got tested. Initially it came up negative. Then in the afternoon he got a call saying that he definitely did have COVID and would have to quarantine for two weeks. When he asked about the discrepancy in the early results he was told that the database had never shown a record of a negative test. But he has a printout that he was going to use to justify returning to work which very definitely does say the test was negative.

    Very suspicious.

  13. Fine work, Briggs. Little doubt lock-downs do not work in any positive way. Little doubt that they actually make things worse in a number of ways, as you show. I will go you one better. Basically, almost *everything* the control-freak-assholes (CFA) have done in response to SARS-COV2 has made things worse. If I did not know better, I would swear they were picking approaches off the “Top Ten Things to NEVER Do During a Pandemic” and deploying them first! This, while disappointing, is not unusual, particularly for losers like Emperor Cuomo. What is unusual, at least I hope, is the number of otherwise intelligent people who are buying into the B.S. I realized, after a while, that lock-downs were a luxury item, but I did not realize the bourgeoisie were both gullible *and* in control. How wrong I was…

  14. Rudolph: Those kinds of testing “errors” seem all too common, and happen too often to be just “errors.” The entire testing regime is suspect and being manipulated to nefarious ends to cook the books on “cases.”

  15. California is still locking elders into Covid-swamped nursing homes without tests of any kind. If a senior citizen goes to the hospital for any reason, they never come home again. It’s a death sentence for the crime of being old.

  16. awildgoose: I am suspicious of the whole “vaccinated on TV” thing. As far as the shirt sleeve, Kamala could have dropped that down after the nurse stuck here. I also read Fauci can’t remember which arm he had the shot in. It’s an IM shot, like tetnus. Most people remember, often for an entire week. What IS fake is the shot starting with the plunger down (which was admitted to being a “mistake” but they really, really did vaccinate him later, sure….), no one getting sick from the vaccine in spite of warnings that these things pack a punch, and my favorite, Netanyahu whose doctor has his fingers on the needle and appears to be an insulin syringe, which CANNOT be used for IM shots because the needle is too short. Most photos show the plunger down, but it could have been up when the person started. It’s all very stupid since there are many, many diabetics and others who take shots daily, multiple times, who recognize how very fake this is. It’s driving people away, at least the smart ones.

  17. Early on, experts admitted that lock-downs would kill more people in the long run, but it was imperative that we “flatten the curve” to avoid overwhelming the ICU’s. Early on, experts admitted that the coronavirus would mutate quickly, and that the mutated strains would be more contagious but less virulent. Despite seeing no pronouncements that these experts were actually wrong, we are still acting as if lock-downs don’t cost lives, and more recently, we are acting as if the more contagious mutated strains are just as virulent.

    When it comes to this virus, is seems there is simply no such thing as good news. Seems like a ‘happy’ convergence of the media bias towards negative news and the increasing fascination with socialism on the left.

    Admittedly it takes some minimal amount of numeracy to understand how the risks from this virus compare to the risks we have always accepted in day-to-day living, and even minimal numeracy seems to be an increasingly rare commodity.

  18. Sheri-

    I received monthly seasonal allergy shots for almost two decades.

    I ALWAYS had my shirtsleeve rolled up over my shoulder, several inches from the needle. If that was not possible, I took my shirt off prior to the shot.

    I believe her lowered shirtsleeve was to conceal something odd about the syringe needle.

    I have also seen the clips of vax shots with the plunger already down, which are also obviously fake.

  19. awildgoose: Since the only doctor-administered shots I have are tetnus and are 10 years apart, I cannot remember exactly how it went. I give myself shots 3 or more times a day and I guess I’m tacky about whether or not the clothing is fully out of the way. It is apparently different when a professional gives the shots.

  20. I looked through as many videos as I could find of the televised shots. Some pull the sleeve all the way up, some do not. It appeared AOC pulled the shoulder of her blouse down. Of all the shots given, I only saw one doctor pull back on the syringe (not vital with IM shots, I am told). With Pence and his wife, the doctors put a bandaid half on first, then gave the shot and pushed the bandaid down afterward. One doctor’s hands were shaking. These are doctors and nurses performing on TV for the masses. It’s not going to look natural. We can analyze forever. Bottom line, either you trust the vaccine and claims or you don’t. I’m not lining up for a shot–even though I am in a very high risk group. What you do is up to you. Unless the government decides to mandatory, but at the rate the vaccine is being rolled out, we’ll be well past 2024 by then and who knows?

  21. @Sheri,
    Unless something has changed, any injection that isn’t subcutaneous should be checked for placement by pulling back on it. If you want an IV injection, you must be sure that you are in a vein. If you want an IM injection, you must be sure you are not in any larger vessel; whether venous or arterial (that is, arterioles, venules and capillaries will not matter as much). Not doing so increases the risks of adverse events.

  22. “All tests are COVID” – not true. They are still testing for influenza, and they just aren’t finding it – they are finding the Wuhan virus – SARS-CoV-2 – which causes COVID19. In fact, if someone shows up with influenza-like illness, they will test for influenza and COVID. I’d bet that more, not fewer people are being tested in the US this year for influenza than in past years.

    Influenza usually has a substantially lower R0 value than SARS-CoV-2. In an active epidemic, the real R value (Rt) will likely be lower because people will take precautions.

    Since cases per generation are proportional to Rt, the dynamics of an epidemic are very sensitive to R0 (and it’s circumstance varying friend Rt, which is R0 adjusted for different spreading circumstances). If Rt is greater than 1.0, any outbreak will grow exponentially until some factor, such as immunity, slows it down*. If Rt is less than 1.0, any outbreak will fade away in exponential decline.

    R0 for influenza is around 1.1-1.4. R0 for COVID19 is 2.0-4.5, with many using 2.5.

    Mitigation measures – social distancing, masks, and masks – lower Rt significantly. We are seeing Rt for COVID19 in the US at around 1.2. When you lower it that much, influenza’s Rt will become less than 1.0 (since influenza spreads the same way as SARS-COV-2). With Rt < 1.0, any outbreak will die out, while COVID keeps on marching along.

    And that's a pretty good explanation for why we see so few influenza cases. It doesn't require postulating a lack of influenza testing.

    *Technical note: the growth isn't quite exponential, because with each generation, more are immune, which has the effect of reducing Rt. But until quite a few are immune, that effect is pretty minor. The expression for the number of cases N(t) at generation t is N(t) = N(t-1)*Rt*(#immune/#population).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *