Statistics

COVID Will Be With US Forever, So Calm Down: Coronavirus Update XLII

EFFEMINACY

Half of the entire world lost its mind.

Elderly Woman Euthanized to Avoid Anguish of Lockdown Loneliness

Good morning, Doctor.

“Good morning, Mrs Jones.”

Any updates?

“Yes. The good news is that we found a cure for your depression.”

Update This is the kind of hersteric effeminacy we’re up against. Detroit Free Press: COVID has turned breathing into a deadly event and all of us into potential serial killers. A male wrote this.

BOOK UPDATE

Again, had too busy of a week to do much about the book.


Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

Daily tests:

This is the number of daily tests. The date of the media’s (COVID Tracking Project) peak attributed deaths is noted: attributed deaths have been steadily declining since then (they will never go to 0).

Topped out just over 2.1 million (data ends Sunday; Monday will be much higher). People obeying the tyranny, and also some realizing their fear was overblown, led to the big up and downs. Many tyrants insisted on testing before traveling. Yet many still joined their loved ones, something government hates. Maybe because it replaces love of them with love of family?

Notice where the peak of COVID deaths were? Testing levels have nothing to do with the actual state of the disease.

Each positive test in the media is counted as a new “case”. These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.

If testing was at all related to actual deaths, a plot of number of tests per number of deaths should be somewhat flat, all things considered. Here’s what the plot looks like in reality:

The CDC’s COVID deaths (rescaled only to aid in visualization) are there as a guide. Testing continues to soar even as deaths sink to background level. We have lost any sense of proportion.

Here are CDC the weekly attributed coronavirus deaths:

These are attributed deaths, which include all those dying with or dying from the coronavirus. The CDC says deaths “involving” COVID.

Attributed COVID deaths peaked early in the year, and then as it spread to the south, it re-peaked. It is now joining the great chorus of bugs that circulate every winter. It will peak in winter, and subside again in spring. This year’s totals will be higher than next year’s, and there always be fluctuation, just like with flu.

Here’s the CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot. The late drop off is late counting, which takes up to eight weeks to get all, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the COVID numbers.

The black line is all deaths, including COVID. Weekly deaths are now at a low, even COVID is small. The dashed is all minus attributed COVID, and the red, for perspective, is COVID. (Again, the drop off is late counts.) The blue line, about the same order as the doom, is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients).

The CDC (important!) stopped reporting separate flu and pneumonia deaths midway through 2020, but I estimate them after by subtracting deaths “involving” COVID from those “involving” (their word) pneumonia or flu or COVID. That’s the dashed blue line.

Here is another way to look at the same data, week of the year all cause deaths, along with a model (black line) of what deaths would look like without COVID.

Ignoring the late counts, deaths are exactly where we expect them to be—rather, under where we’d expect them to be.

Same thing is true in Canada, only more so (data source):

Canadians readers can correct us, but from the many reports we hear, lockdowns and restrictions are worse there than in the States. Even though, as is obvious, conditions are better there.

CDC says “Flu activity is unusually low at this time but may increase in the coming months.” Here’s their picture of the flu tracking.

Flu has gone missing. Flu + pneumonia kill about 200,000 each and every year in the US. Not anymore. That is, we don’t know any more, because nobody is bothering to check.

Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of).

Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:

POPULATION FATALITY RATES
                 Age     COVID OtherCause
1       Under 1 year 0.0000077    0.00380
2          1–4 years 0.0000010    0.00017
3         5–14 years 0.0000010    0.00011
4        15–24 years 0.0000100    0.00065
5        25–34 years 0.0000390    0.00120
6        35–44 years 0.0001100    0.00180
7        45–54 years 0.0003000    0.00330
8        55–64 years 0.0007000    0.00720
9        65–74 years 0.0016000    0.01500
10       75–84 years 0.0040000    0.03500
11 85 years and over 0.0110000    0.11000

No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID.

About masks, see this article.

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Categories: Statistics

27 replies »

  1. Half the world??? I’d go at least 90%.

    Stopping people from socializing is called TORTURE. Call it what it is.

    The Tyranny of the RICH AND EVIL. Not all experts are rich and evil, not all rich and evil are experts.

    Don’t worry about traffic deaths. Those come next in reduction as people are locked in their prisons (homes) and eventually starvation hits. New Mexico is locking down grocery stores. The tyrants are out to kill us and we’re just going along…..

    AGAIN, numbers are useless. You have to make people feel the fear of the lockdown (starvation in New Mexico would be a good terror to instill) and the tyrants that are killing them MORE than the fear of virus. You need anecdotes, memes, posters and a really, really big push. I don’t think it can be done. Waited to long, people are too stupid and apathetic. ( For those of you who find that offensive, prove me wrong. I’ll modify my beliefs.)

  2. Additional point: You may NOT calm down over Covid or they get something new. You MUST be afraid.

    Kind of off topic, but does the song “The Devil went Down to Georgia” pop into your heads often? Charlie Daniels died, so Georia is doomed people……The devil has his playground. (Admittedly, the devil is CENTURIES ahead in soul gathering, but you get the idea.)

  3. But back to your work on the Kracken lawsuits. I’m particularly interested in the irregularities uncovered in in Sidney Powell’s new Michigan lawsuit about the vote totals in Edison County, MI. Can you enlighten us further on the specifics of this?

  4. ”Yet many still joined their loved ones, something government hates. Maybe because it replaces love of them with love of family?”

    The Overlords hate love. They want to be feared and obeyed. Their Corona terror campaign has people frightened and obedient, as puny men should be in the presence of such godlike men as the Great and Powerful Overlords. They will maintain this terror as long as foolish, frightened men submit to it. When — if — the people finally are desperate enough and muster serious resistance then the sadistic Overlords will launch a new terror campaign, such as a more deadly plague, to try and frighten men back into obedience. The astonishing success of corona terror has shown them the path to victory and they are charging desperately along as fanatical revolutionaries to seize their prize, World Power.

  5. Here in Canada, our political masters, healthcare bureaucrats and media keep telling us it’ll get much worse if we don’t follow their rules. “Millions of doctors, nurses, scientists around the world say the same thing”, they tell us. “Keep this thing under control or the healthcare system will be overwhelmed! We have no choice!”

    These experts tell us that in New York, they have to haul bodies off in freezers to temporary morgues!

    As for the testing game, now there are complaints about the new rapid tests. Too many false negatives, or not enough true/false positives?

    https://www.ottawamatters.com/local-news/22-per-cent-of-rapid-covid-19-tests-in-ontario-reporting-false-negatives-experts-3138952

  6. Like Big Brother, people have come to love their fear and paranoia.

    The global response to Covid is the greatest collective crime against humanity ever perpetrated.

    “Land of the free and home of the brave?” Ha. What a sick joke.

  7. Where do they all get these numbers of people for testing? It’s really hard to believe by now that these exist.

  8. What I fear the most is not the present situation. Sooner or later, every generation faces a period of terrible years, for whatever reason, so I would be happy to have lost 2020 and half of 2021 due to a sudden outbreak of collective manipulation and complete madness, provided human mind got back on track in, say, September 2021.

    The real problem is (and I even fear to whisper this thought…) that I´m afraid that, in the next months, the argument about the insanity of adopting unprecedented measures for an illness with a 0,03 % IFR in the 0-70 years old interval, will be turned upside down. So, instead of the reasonable “why with Covid precisely and not with the other contagious, much more dangerous conditions we face each year? We overreacted.”, the aftermath will be the opposite, that is, “if we have done what we have done with Covid, how are we not going to do the same to avoid the huge mortality that pneumonia, flu, tuberculosis, etc., bring every year?

    Maybe it is just my head dancing to the crazy Covid pandemic music, but I really believe that it is a matter of time that a scientist or a politician gets to this conclusion, and propose yearly periods of masks indoors and outdoors “to clear hospital facilities and save thousand of lives”. This is the world we are living in, so…

    Oh, by the way: this was already suggested by an article in the MIT web in the first half of the year…

  9. It’s been 9 months so I have known plenty of people first or second hand that have had it. They’re all fine. I know no one who has died only 1 hospitalized. They all say the same thing, “I’m so lucky I got a mild case and I hope there’s a vaccine soon.” There seems to be a real disconnect because if you ask people, which I do, how many people do you know that have died you rarely find anyone. At this point they could just give you a shot of saline, call it a vaccine and the people that still get it could be attributed to that 6% ineffective . Though I actually don’t think it would be that high, would it.

  10. Rogelio: Yes, many seem to want to impose “Covid rules” permanently now, and will use any reason as an excuse, even as it has long been clear that Covid is no more deadly for 99.9% of people than flu and that it was all a gross over–reaction. They won’t admit they are wrong – but will blame people for supposedly just not follow-gin the rules enough, and even harsher rules will be imposed.

    Many are already talking about permanent masks, refusal of entrance to theatres, sports venues, restaurants, airplanes, etc. without Covid vaccination (and you can bet others will be added to the required list), etc (even refusal of bank accounts without Covid vaccination!). The world is dead, life is dead, the future is hopeless. Nothing to look forward to but a grim, totalitarian technocracy worse than anything the most ardent 20th C. totalitarians ever dreamed of.

  11. Kenan Myer, there is no shortage of people that will line up for blocks in their cars to get tested. You’d think I would get used to seeing it but I don’t – it’s horribly depressing to me. As has been noted, people can be such mindless sheep. Personally I don’t want any part of it. Keep these idiots away from me.

  12. Even with all the insane testing, the “new cases” have been falling since the 20th

    Acknowledging the Holidays (Briggs’ chart does show major dips but also a huge spike), it is looking like the new cases are not sustainable). The drop of cases seems to be matched worldwide. Deaths in the US and the world seem to be peaking.

    I’ll wager there’ll be one more “wave” as the “new” president takes office (and barring an effective vaccine). While the “wave” should be at most “flu-like”, we can guess which president does what…

  13. Dennis: Yes that´s my take on the mid-term future.

    For the first time in history there exists the technology that allows for the global totalitarism that many pursued across History by means of blood and terror. Centuries ago, the conquerors risked their life, and the conquered waited for their chance to hit back. Now, the conquerors are not in danger because they sell themselves as saviors, and the conquered (internet era) feel grateful for their slavery.

    I don´t know… The world has always functioned with a balance between the consubstantial horrors that living this life has and the wonders of spirituality, art, culture, warmth, light and hope. The balance is completely broken nowadays.

    I am not completely hopeless, but I feel tremendously detached from the people surrounding me for complying with this madness.

  14. ” I feel tremendously detached from the people surrounding me for complying with this madness.”

    Indeed. I wish I could abscond to another planet altogether.

  15. In MN we had a “grim record” of over 100 deaths reported on Thanksgiving. This was of course used as evidence across the state that anyone visiting anyone for Thanksgiving wanted everyone to die.

    But mysteriously no report for deaths was given on the day before Thanksgiving, and the 7 day average for deaths per day around half of the “grim record.” Not even hiding that they combined two days simply to generate headlines.

  16. Kenan Meyer
    December 1, 2020 at 1:15 pm
    Where do they all get these numbers of people for testing? It’s really hard to believe by now that these exist.

    They come from the voter lists….

  17. “The world is dead, life is dead, the future is hopeless. Nothing to look forward to but a grim, totalitarian technocracy worse than anything the most ardent 20th C. totalitarians ever dreamed of.”

    Puh. Enemy is occupying your mental space. You need to evict him, and reclaim your mental/spiritual being. There is a big, wide world — another planet — available now, where he cannot intrude. Part of that is being a faithful follower of Christ. Another part is taking practical measures to divert an unhealthy focus on the Big Stupid. They want you focused on the Big Stupid, and demoralized. Screw them.

    I recommend, to anyone looking for another planet to inhabit, to journey to the South Pole, with Aspley Cherry-Garrard, and his book, “The Worst Journey in the World”, an utterly engrossing account of the Scott expedition of 1911-1913. It is considered a classic and deservedly so. Once you have a taste for polar exploration you’ll want to read Pierre Berton’s “The Arctic Grail: The Quest for the Northwest Passage and The North Pole, 1818-1909”, a compendium of North Pole exploration, fascinating and astonishing, the perils and tribulations men endured in adverse conditions. If you care to see what the Russian people endured with their version of the Big Stupid you’ll want to read Robert Conquest’s “The Great Terror”, a compelling account of Russia’s revolutionary madness, and relevant for our times. We live not only in our days, but in those of our predecessors. A man may profitably unplug from the day’s pressing noise, and immerse himself in times past, which are not past, but live on as our heritage.

  18. Kittitas County, WA State (east of Seattle and the Cascade Mtns.) reached 22 deaths on August 4 ( I could be off by 1 on the deaths).
    Local paper reported 1 more this past week. One in four months. Wow!
    There was no other information, so we have just a number floating in space.

  19. Well, maybe skip “The Great Terror”, seeing as how we may yet have to live through one. But two other lovely planets worth visiting are “Endurance: Shackelton’s Incredible Voyage”, by Alfred Lansing, and “The Lost Men: The Harrowing Saga of Shackleton’s Ross Sea Party”, by Kelly Tyler-Lewis. The Shackelton tale is gripping good; ice bound ship, crushed, living on the ice amidst the wreckage, escape across the ice, taking to three small boats as the ice breaks up, landfall on a deserted icy rock, a desperate voyage for rescue across 800 miles of open ocean in a tiny boat, and finally a dangerous climb over snowy mountains to a whaling harbor and rescue.

    Shackelton’s tale is well known, but there was also a companion expedition tasked with laying supplies for Shackelton as he completed his crossing of the Antarctic continent. “The Lost Men” tells a story less well known but equally amazing, enduring incredible hardships with fortitude and laying the supply depots through every difficulty though they cannot know Shackelton will never need them because he was caught in the ice and his ship crushed. Frosty frightful fun, and helps put one’s own difficulties in better perspective.

  20. According to the CDC statistics the chances of dying from the regular flu is zero. So why should I get a regular flu shot?

  21. Douglas: You shouldn’t. Flu shots are a Big Pharma con. An easy way to make lots of money on the cheap every year by convincing people they need some shot that isn’t very effective for a virus that isn’t very deadly.

  22. I just happened to click on the link for Canada’s weekly death counts, and they have quietly updated their chart. The drop in June and following month’s deaths have all but disappeared, and are now running above the previous 6 years. Curious. Was this a reporting lag that was corrected, or is something else going on?

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